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Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company managing all stages of the value chain, from project development to the sale of green electricity generated by its own onshore wind turbines. Arise manages ~770 MW with 241 MW own and 529 MW external. Its entirely own wind farms consist of 65 wind turbines of 139 MW, and co-owned farms consist of 33 turbines with a total output of 102 MW (50% ownership). Additionally, the company has an extensive project portfolio of 800 MW in Sweden. The shares are listed on Nasdaq OMX Small Cap.

Political ambition of 100% renewable is an obvious driver for realization of Arise’s project portfolio. Lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favorable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 343 310 404
Sales growth (%) 33,7 -9,5 30,2
EBITDA 190 164 196
EBITDA margin (%) 55,5 52,9 48,6
EBIT adj 118 97 129
EBIT adj margin (%) 34,5 31,3 31,9
Pretax profit 28 32 69
EPS rep 0,62 0,76 1,62
EPS growth (%) 111,4 23,1 113,6
EPS adj 0,62 0,76 1,62
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8,1 8,6 6,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 13 14,5 9,9
P/E (x) 27,6 25,5 11,9
P/E adj (x) 27,6 25,5 11,9
EV/sales (x) 4,5 4,5 3,2
FCF yield (%) 18,5 40,6 29,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 5 4,6 3,2
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 343 310 404
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 343 310 404
Other operating items -153 -146 -208
EBITDA 190 164 196
Depreciation on tangibles -72 -67 -67
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 118 97 129
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 118 97 129
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -90 -65 -60
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 28 32 69
Tax -7 -6 -14
Net profit 21 26 55
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 21 26 55
EPS 0,62 0,76 1,62
EPS Adj 0,62 0,76 1,62
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -26,1 -20 -20
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 55,5 52,9 48,6
EBITA margin (%) 34,5 31,3 31,9
EBIT margin (%) 34,5 31,3 31,9
Pretax margin (%) 8,3 10,4 17
Net margin (%) 6,1 8,3 13,6
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 33,7 -9,5 30,2
EBITDA growth (%) 45,8 -13,7 19,5
EBIT growth (%) 220,9 -18 32,9
Net profit growth (%) 111,6 23,1 113,6
EPS growth (%) 111,4 23,1 113,6
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 2,5 3,1 6,3
ROE Adj (%) 2,5 3,1 6,3
ROCE (%) 6,6 5,7 8,3
ROCE Adj(%) 6,6 5,7 8,3
ROIC (%) 5,8 5,4 7,9
ROIC Adj (%) 5,8 5,4 7,9
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 190 164 196
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 55,5 52,9 48,6
EBITA Adj 118 97 129
EBITA Adj margin (%) 34,5 31,3 31,9
EBIT Adj 118 97 129
EBIT Adj margin (%) 34,5 31,3 31,9
Pretax profit Adj 28 32 69
Net profit Adj 21 26 55
Net profit to shareholders Adj 21 26 55
Net Adj margin (%) 6,1 8,3 13,6
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 190 164 196
Net financial items -90 -65 -60
Paid tax -7 -6 -14
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 93 93 122
Change in WC -94 129 1
Operating cash flow 114 282 197
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -7 -16 -6
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 107 266 191
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -82 -62 -60
Decrease in net IB debt 25 204 131
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1330 1279 1218
Other fixed assets 482 482 469
Fixed assets 1813 1762 1687
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 195 66 66
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 61 237 332
Total assets 2069 2065 2084
Shareholders equity 824 852 907
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 824 852 907
Long-term debt 677 650 613
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 245 245 245
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 46 46 46
Short-term debt 97 97 97
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 180 176 176
Total liabilities and equity 2460 2124 2069
Net IB debt 958 754 624
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 958 754 624
Capital invested 1525 1346 1284
Working capital 195 66 66
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 577 655 655
Net IB debt Adj 958 754 624
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1535 1409 1279
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 16,4 15 19,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 22,7 21,6 30,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 19 18,3 25,8
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 43,1 42,1 16,4
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) 116,3 88,6 68,8
Net debt / market cap (%) 187,7 117,1 96,8
Equity ratio (%) 39,8 41,2 43,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 116,3 88,6 68,8
Current ratio (%) 92,4 111,3 145,6
EBITDA / net interest (%) 211,3 253 325,5
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 503,2 459,2 317,6
Interest cover (%) 131,3 149,4 213
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 34 34 34
EPS 0,62 0,76 1,62
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,62 0,76 1,62
BVPS 24,69 25,52 27,17
BVPS Adj 24,69 25,52 27,17
Net IB debt / share 28,7 22,6 18,7
Share price 15,3 19,3 19,3
Market cap. (m) 510 644 644
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 27,6 25,5 11,9
EV/sales 4,47 4,54 3,16
EV/EBITDA 8,1 8,6 6,5
EV/EBITA 13 14,5 9,9
EV/EBIT 13 14,5 9,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 18,5 40,6 29,2
P/BVPS 0,69 0,76 0,71
P/BVPS Adj 0,69 0,76 0,71
P/E Adj 27,6 25,5 11,9
EV/EBITDA Adj 8,1 8,6 6,5
EV/EBITA Adj 13 14,5 9,9
EV/EBIT Adj 13 14,5 9,9
EV/cap. employed 0,9 0,9 0,8
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2 5,2 1,5
Capex / depreciation 9,7 23,8 8,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0,5 1,3 0,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 5,4 5,3 5,5

Equity research

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Main shareholders

Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Jan Barchan 16.3 % 16.3 % 31 Dec 2018
Claesson & Anderzén 12.3 % 12.3 % 9 Oct 2018
Tredje AP-fonden 9.7 % 9.7 % 31 Dec 2018
Nordea Liv & Pension 9.2 % 9.2 % 31 Dec 2018
Carlton Telecom Inc 6.7 % 6.7 % 9 Oct 2018
Peter Gyllenhammar 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Ernström & C:o AB 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Leif Jansson 3.7 % 3.7 % 31 Dec 2018
Olof Andersson 3.6 % 3.6 % 31 Dec 2018
Svenska Handelsbanken AB for PB 3.6 % 3.6 % 31 Dec 2018
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Per-Erik Eriksson - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per-Erik Eriksson + 5 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg + 10 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Joachim Gahm - 2 574 SELL 14 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 1 825 SELL 10 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 5 581 SELL 8 Jan 2019
Linus Hägg + 2 143 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 1 000 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 169 BUY 28 May 2018

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