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Avensia

IT company with innovative power

Avensia is an IT company, operating in the e-commerce niche. The primary focus is to help its customers increase sales within all channels available, i.e. Omni channels. Avensia mainly generates income through consultancy, but in addition the company commercializes products. The main product is the self-developed e-commerce system Storefront, which is a link between the ERP system Microsoft Dynamics and e-commerce platform Episerver. Avensia’s customer base comprises both B2B and B2C customers (approx. 50% each) in the Nordics as well as globally.

The main opportunities for Avensia are 1) increasing investments in e-commerce due to digitalization, which will drive implementation of websites etc, 2) higher than anticipated penetration of the product Storefront, mainly internationally, and 3) continued demand of consultancies for strategical guidance within the e-commerce segment.

We see three risks for Avensia: 1) The high market growth within e-commerce might draw competition, which will put pressure on prices. Hence, both margins and revenue growth could decrease. 2) Avensia generates a big portion of its revenues through a high customer concentration, with the two biggest customers accounting for 27% of 2017 revenues. 3) Lately Avensia has invested significantly in new personnel. There is a risk that these new recruitments may not perform as well as anticipated.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 250 336 403
Sales growth (%) 48,7 34,6 19,6
EBITDA 26 44 62
EBITDA margin (%) 10,3 13 15,3
EBIT adj 23 41 59
EBIT adj margin (%) 9,4 12,2 14,6
Pretax profit 23 41 59
EPS rep 0,46 0,9 1,29
EPS growth (%) 172,2 94 44,2
EPS adj 0,46 0,9 1,29
DPS 0,23 0,35 0,4
EV/EBITDA (x) 14,8 12,3 8,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 16,3 13,1 8,6
P/E (x) 25,1 18,5 12,9
P/E adj (x) 25,1 18,5 12,9
EV/sales (x) 1,5 1,6 1,3
FCF yield (%) 4,8 5,1 7,2
Dividend yield (%) 2 2,1 2,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,2 -1,2 -1,4
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 250 336 403
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 250 336 403
Other operating items -224 -293 -341
EBITDA 26 44 62
Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles -2 -3 -3
EBITA 23 41 59
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 23 41 59
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 23 41 59
Tax -7 -9 -13
Net profit 16 32 46
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 16 32 46
EPS 0,46 0,9 1,29
EPS Adj 0,46 0,9 1,29
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -30 -22,5 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 10,3 13 15,3
EBITA margin (%) 9,4 12,2 14,6
EBIT margin (%) 9,4 12,2 14,6
Pretax margin (%) 9,4 12,2 14,6
Net margin (%) 6,6 9,5 11,4
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 48,7 34,6 19,6
EBITDA growth (%) 154,4 69,4 41,1
EBIT growth (%) 172,7 74,9 43,3
Net profit growth (%) 172,2 93,9 44,2
EPS growth (%) 172,2 94 44,2
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 41,5 53,6 52,2
ROE Adj (%) 41,5 53,6 52,2
ROCE (%) 141,7 225,7 295,4
ROCE Adj(%) 141,7 225,7 295,4
ROIC (%) 99,2 174,9 230,4
ROIC Adj (%) 99,2 174,9 230,4
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 26 44 62
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 10,3 13 15,3
EBITA Adj 23 41 59
EBITA Adj margin (%) 9,4 12,2 14,6
EBIT Adj 23 41 59
EBIT Adj margin (%) 9,4 12,2 14,6
Pretax profit Adj 23 41 59
Net profit Adj 16 32 46
Net profit to shareholders Adj 16 32 46
Net Adj margin (%) 6,6 9,5 11,4
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 26 44 62
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax -7 -9 -13
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 19 34 49
Change in WC 0 0 2
Operating cash flow 23 34 49
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -4 -4 -6
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 20 30 43
Dividend paid -6 -8 -12
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 2 0 2
Decrease in net IB debt 15 22 32
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 3 5 8
Tangible fixed assets 4 4 4
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 8 9 13
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 62 79 89
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 30 52 84
Total assets 100 140 185
Shareholders equity 48 71 105
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 48 71 105
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 53 69 81
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 48 69 100
Net IB debt -30 -52 -84
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -30 -52 -84
Capital invested 17 19 21
Working capital 9 10 8
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 412 590 590
Net IB debt Adj -30 -52 -84
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 382 538 506
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 295,3 279,6 247,4
Capital invested turnover (%) 1508,8 1849,9 2021,3
Capital employed turnover (%) 1508,8 1849,9 2021,3
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 18 18,1 18,6
Working capital / sales (%) 3,8 2,9 2,2
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -63,8 -73,1 -80,2
Net debt / market cap (%) -8 -8,8 -14,2
Equity ratio (%) 47,4 50,8 56,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -63,8 -73,1 -80,2
Current ratio (%) 175,3 189,6 214,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) 49500 0 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -117,9 -119,4 -136,5
Interest cover (%) 45146,2 N/A N/A
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 36 36 36
Fully diluted shares Adj 36 36 36
EPS 0,46 0,9 1,29
Dividend per share Adj 0,2 0,3 0,4
EPS Adj 0,46 0,9 1,29
BVPS 1,34 2 2,94
BVPS Adj 1,24 1,87 2,71
Net IB debt / share -0,9 -1,5 -2,4
Share price 10,74 16,6 16,6
Market cap. (m) 382 590 590
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 25,1 18,5 12,9
EV/sales 1,53 1,6 1,26
EV/EBITDA 14,8 12,3 8,2
EV/EBITA 16,3 13,1 8,6
EV/EBIT 16,3 13,1 8,6
Dividend yield (%) 2 2,1 2,4
FCF yield (%) 4,8 5,1 7,2
P/BVPS 8,67 8,28 5,64
P/BVPS Adj 9,34 8,9 6,12
P/E Adj 25,1 18,5 12,9
EV/EBITDA Adj 14,8 12,3 8,2
EV/EBITA Adj 16,3 13,1 8,6
EV/EBIT Adj 16,3 13,1 8,6
EV/cap. employed 22,2 28,1 24,5
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 1,5 1,2 1,5
Capex / depreciation 168,2 157,7 223,6
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 110,6 82 73,1
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 65,7 52 32,7
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

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Main shareholders

Avensia

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
A5 Invest AB 26.8 % 26.8 % 31 Dec 2018
Valid Asset Management I Skåne AB 22.5 % 22.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Anders Wehtje 10.3 % 10.3 % 31 Dec 2018
Avanza Pension 2.9 % 2.9 % 31 Dec 2018
Jörgen Bertilsson 2.7 % 2.7 % 31 Dec 2018
John Löfström 2.6 % 2.6 % 31 Dec 2018
AB Axel Granlund 2.3 % 2.3 % 31 Dec 2018
Carl-Fredrik Herslow Invest AB 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Dec 2018
AMF Försäkring & Fonder 2.1 % 2.1 % 28 Feb 2019
Johan Liljeros 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Dec 2018
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Avensia

Name Quantity Code Date
Nathalie Torshall + 7 660 TILLD 19 Mar 2019
Johan- Liljeros + 61 000 Redemp 18 Mar 2019
Agneta Ljungbeck + 3 830 Redemp 18 Mar 2019
Kristian Hagset - 61 600 Redemp 18 Mar 2019
Kristian Hagset + 61 600 Redemp 18 Mar 2019
Anders Ekdahl + 24 975 TILLD 18 Mar 2019
Anders Ekdahl - 7 500 SELL 18 Mar 2019
Kristian Hagset + 61 600 TILLD 1 Mar 2019
Kristian Hagset + 61 600 TILLD 1 Mar 2019
Kristian Hagset + 61 600 TILLD 1 Mar 2019

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