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Concordia Maritime

International shipping company

Concordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence.

While declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market results in increased day rates, which consequently drives asset values. Increasing net asset values would be supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive dividend yields.

Declining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs. Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and less tanker demand for stockpiling.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 1053 1048 1198
Sales growth (%) 27,2 -0,4 14,3
EBITDA 57 257 406
EBITDA margin (%) 5,4 24,5 33,9
EBIT adj -130 61 211
EBIT adj margin (%) -12,3 5,8 17,6
Pretax profit -182 20 169
EPS rep -3,81 0,41 3,55
EPS growth (%) 72,4 110,8 764,8
EPS adj -3,81 0,41 3,55
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 28 5,3 2,7
EV/EBIT adj (x) -12,3 22,4 5,2
P/E (x) -2,8 26 3
P/E adj (x) -2,8 26 3
EV/sales (x) 1,5 1,3 0,9
FCF yield (%) -11,5 44,1 54,3
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 19,1 3,4 1,4
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 1053 1048 1198
COGS -996 -792 -792
Gross profit 57 257 406
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 57 257 406
Depreciation on tangibles -187 -196 -196
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA -130 61 211
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -130 61 211
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -52 -42 -42
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -182 20 169
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -182 20 169
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -182 20 169
EPS -3,81 0,41 3,55
EPS Adj -3,81 0,41 3,55
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,1 0 0
Gross margin (%) 5,4 24,5 33,9
EBITDA margin (%) 5,4 24,5 33,9
EBITA margin (%) -12,3 5,8 17,6
EBIT margin (%) -12,3 5,8 17,6
Pretax margin (%) -17,3 1,9 14,1
Net margin (%) -17,3 1,9 14,1
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 27,2 -0,4 14,3
EBITDA growth (%) 10,9 351,3 58,3
EBIT growth (%) 79,2 147,1 244,7
Net profit growth (%) 72,4 110,8 764,8
EPS growth (%) 72,4 110,8 764,8
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) -15,9 1,8 14,5
ROE Adj (%) -15,9 1,8 14,5
ROCE (%) -4,4 5 13,3
ROCE Adj(%) -4,4 5 13,3
ROIC (%) -5,1 2,5 9,5
ROIC Adj (%) -5,1 2,5 9,5
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 57 257 406
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 5,4 24,5 33,9
EBITA Adj -130 61 211
EBITA Adj margin (%) -12,3 5,8 17,6
EBIT Adj -130 61 211
EBIT Adj margin (%) -12,3 5,8 17,6
Pretax profit Adj -182 20 169
Net profit Adj -182 20 169
Net profit to shareholders Adj -182 20 169
Net Adj margin (%) -17,3 1,9 14,1
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 57 257 406
Net financial items -52 -42 -42
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -64 -82 28
Cash flow before change in WC -59 133 393
Change in WC -57 91 -32
Operating cash flow -116 224 362
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -3 0 -86
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 61 0 0
Free cash flow -59 224 276
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 8 0 0
Other non cash items 191 -82 28
Decrease in net IB debt 141 142 304
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 2303 2107 1998
Other fixed assets 15 15 15
Fixed assets 2318 2122 2012
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 254 162 194
Other current assets 97 97 97
Cash and liquid assets 126 147 340
Total assets 2795 2529 2644
Shareholders equity 1062 1081 1250
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1062 1081 1250
Long-term debt 1022 819 736
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 279 279 279
Short-term debt 203 203 203
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 229 147 175
Total liabilities and equity 4142 2968 2795
Net IB debt 1084 860 584
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1084 860 584
Capital invested 2557 2270 2192
Working capital 254 162 194
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 508 508 508
Net IB debt Adj 1084 860 584
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1593 1369 1093
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 36,5 39,4 46,3
Capital invested turnover (%) 41,6 43,4 53,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 46,4 51,3 63,5
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 21,4 19,8 14,9
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) 102,1 79,6 46,7
Net debt / market cap (%) 209,1 169,2 115
Equity ratio (%) 38 42,7 47,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 102,1 79,6 46,7
Current ratio (%) 110,5 116,4 167
EBITDA / net interest (%) 109,8 617,2 977,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 1905,6 335 143,8
Interest cover (%) -120,1 124 307,4
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48
Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48
EPS -3,81 0,41 3,55
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -3,81 0,41 3,55
BVPS 22,24 22,65 26,2
BVPS Adj 22,24 22,65 26,2
Net IB debt / share 22,7 18 12,2
Share price 10,86 10,65 10,65
Market cap. (m) 519 508 508
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E -2,8 26 3
EV/sales 1,51 1,31 0,91
EV/EBITDA 28 5,3 2,7
EV/EBITA -12,3 22,4 5,2
EV/EBIT -12,3 22,4 5,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -11,5 44,1 54,3
P/BVPS 0,48 0,47 0,41
P/BVPS Adj 0,48 0,47 0,41
P/E Adj -2,8 26 3
EV/EBITDA Adj 28 5,3 2,7
EV/EBITA Adj -12,3 22,4 5,2
EV/EBIT Adj -12,3 22,4 5,2
EV/cap. employed 0,7 0,7 0,6
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 0,3 0 7,2
Capex / depreciation 1,6 0 43,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0,1 0 4,3
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 8,1 9,3 9,8

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Main shareholders

Concordia Maritime

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Stena 52.2 % 72.7 % 31 Dec 2018
Bengt Stillström 4.2 % 2.4 % 31 Dec 2018
Avanza Pension 2.9 % 1.7 % 31 Dec 2018
Stig Andersson 2.5 % 1.4 % 31 Dec 2018
Fourton Oy 2.4 % 1.4 % 31 Jan 2019
Traction 2.3 % 1.3 % 31 Dec 2018
Morgan-Åke Åkesson 1.7 % 1.0 % 31 Dec 2018
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 0.9 % 0.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Ann Stillström 0.8 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2018
Rutger Arnhult 0.6 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2018
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Concordia Maritime

Name Quantity Code Date
Mats Jansson + 9 670 BUY 19 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 6 700 BUY 14 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Helena Levander + 637 BUY 9 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 50 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 10 238 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 1 000 BUY 7 Feb 2018
MATS JANSSON + 6 000 BUY 1 Feb 2018
Gustaf Michael Gunnarsson Löw BUY 31 Jan 2018

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