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Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (7-9% annually) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 604 688 809
Sales growth (%) -1,3 14 17,5
EBITDA 155 163 197
EBITDA margin (%) 25,6 23,7 24,3
EBIT adj 101 111 141
EBIT adj margin (%) 16,7 16,1 17,4
Pretax profit 99 111 143
EPS rep 6,69 7,63 9,85
EPS growth (%) 10,4 14 29,1
EPS adj 6,69 7,63 9,85
DPS 0 0,91 1,17
EV/EBITDA (x) 26 22,1 17,7
EV/EBIT adj (x) 39,8 32,5 24,7
P/E (x) 53,8 43,5 33,7
P/E adj (x) 53,8 43,5 33,7
EV/sales (x) 6,7 5,2 4,3
FCF yield (%) 2,8 2,7 3,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0,3 0,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,5 -1,1 -1,5
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 604 688 809
COGS -326 -368 -433
Gross profit 278 320 376
Other operating items -123 -157 -179
EBITDA 155 163 197
Depreciation on tangibles -9 -11 -11
Depreciation on intangibles -45 -41 -44
EBITA 101 111 141
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 101 111 141
Other financial items 2 0 0
Net financial items -3 0 2
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 99 111 143
Tax -22 -24 -31
Net profit 76 87 112
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 76 87 112
EPS 6,69 7,63 9,85
EPS Adj 6,69 7,63 9,85
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22,6 -21,4 -21,4
Gross margin (%) 46 46,5 46,5
EBITDA margin (%) 25,6 23,7 24,3
EBITA margin (%) 16,7 16,1 17,4
EBIT margin (%) 16,7 16,1 17,4
Pretax margin (%) 16,3 16,1 17,6
Net margin (%) 12,6 12,6 13,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) -1,3 14 17,5
EBITDA growth (%) -1,5 5,1 20,9
EBIT growth (%) -2,9 9,3 27,6
Net profit growth (%) 10,4 14 29,1
EPS growth (%) 10,4 14 29,1
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 8 8,1 9,6
ROE Adj (%) 8 8,1 9,6
ROCE (%) 11,3 12,1 15,7
ROCE Adj(%) 11,3 12,1 15,7
ROIC (%) 8,3 9 11,6
ROIC Adj (%) 8,3 9 11,6
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 155 163 197
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 25,6 23,7 24,3
EBITA Adj 101 111 141
EBITA Adj margin (%) 16,7 16,1 17,4
EBIT Adj 101 111 141
EBIT Adj margin (%) 16,7 16,1 17,4
Pretax profit Adj 99 111 143
Net profit Adj 76 87 112
Net profit to shareholders Adj 76 87 112
Net Adj margin (%) 12,6 12,6 13,9
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 155 163 197
Net financial items -3 0 2
Paid tax -20 -24 -31
Non-cash items 37 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 170 139 168
Change in WC -42 -16 -30
Operating cash flow 128 125 142
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -4 -7 -8
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -10 -15 -18
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 114 103 116
Dividend paid 0 0 -10
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -13 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 101 103 105
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 305 305 305
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 494 468 441
Tangible fixed assets 29 25 22
Other fixed assets 2 2 2
Fixed assets 829 799 769
Inventories 69 76 91
Receivables 106 118 141
Other current assets 6 7 8
Cash and liquid assets 199 343 399
Total assets 1209 1343 1408
Shareholders equity 1028 1115 1217
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1028 1115 1217
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 7 7 7
Short-term debt 118 159 110
Accounts payable 31 35 42
Other current liabilities 24 27 32
Total liabilities and equity 1210 1111 1209
Net IB debt -81 -184 -289
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -81 -184 -289
Capital invested 971 957 957
Working capital 143 160 190
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 4102 3778 3778
Net IB debt Adj -81 -184 -289
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 4021 3595 3489
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 52,1 53,9 58,8
Capital invested turnover (%) 64,5 71,4 84,5
Capital employed turnover (%) 65,2 73,3 87
Inventories / sales (%) 11,4 10,5 10,4
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 4,8 4,8 4,7
Working capital / sales (%) 20,3 22 21,6
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -7,9 -16,5 -23,8
Net debt / market cap (%) -1,8 -4,9 -7,7
Equity ratio (%) 85 83 86,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -7,9 -16,5 -23,8
Current ratio (%) 218,2 246,1 347,7
EBITDA / net interest (%) 3289,5 -985923,7 -11591,3
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -52,2 -112,8 -146,9
Interest cover (%) 1636,4 3418,3 4523,1
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Fully diluted shares Adj 11 11 11
EPS 6,69 7,63 9,85
Dividend per share Adj 0 0,9 1,2
EPS Adj 6,69 7,63 9,85
BVPS 90,26 97,88 106,82
BVPS Adj 20,18 30,1 41,39
Net IB debt / share -7,1 -16,1 -25,4
Share price 397,39 331,6 331,6
Market cap. (m) 4528 3778 3778
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 53,8 43,5 33,7
EV/sales 6,66 5,22 4,31
EV/EBITDA 26 22,1 17,7
EV/EBITA 39,8 32,5 24,7
EV/EBIT 39,8 32,5 24,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0,3 0,4
FCF yield (%) 2,8 2,7 3,1
P/BVPS 3,99 3,39 3,1
P/BVPS Adj 17,84 11,02 8,01
P/E Adj 53,8 43,5 33,7
EV/EBITDA Adj 26 22,1 17,7
EV/EBITA Adj 39,8 32,5 24,7
EV/EBIT Adj 39,8 32,5 24,7
EV/cap. employed 4,2 3,9 3,8
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2,3 3,2 3,2
Capex / depreciation 26,1 42,1 46,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 13 27,5 37,1
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 2,1 3,2 4
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 9,1 8,8 10,1
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 31 44 52

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Main shareholders

Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 50.3 % 50.3 % 31 Dec 2017
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.7 % 10.7 % 31 Jan 2019
Fjärde AP-fonden 8.8 % 8.8 % 28 Feb 2019
Probi Aktiebolag 2.1 % 2.1 % 28 Feb 2019
SEB Fonder 1.1 % 1.1 % 28 Feb 2019
Avanza Pension 1.1 % 1.1 % 28 Feb 2019
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 0.9 % 0.9 % 28 Feb 2019
SEBinvest 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Nov 2018
XACT Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 28 Feb 2019
TIN Fonder 0.4 % 0.4 % 28 Feb 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 TECKN 24 Oct 2016
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 24 Oct 2016
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 24 Oct 2016

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