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MedicaNatumin

MedicaNatumin

Innovative self-care company

MedicaNatumin develops, manufactures and markets health and beauty products based on innovative ingredients and research. The company’s patented platforms were developed by its own research group in collaboration with Karolinska Institute and Sahlgrenska Academy. Its leading brands of food supplements, medical devices, and dermatological and cosmetic products are widely sold in the Nordic market, and to consumers around the world. Its sales channels are specialty retail, department stores, pharmacies and e-commerce. Outside the Nordics, MedicaNatumin uses distributors. The group targets SEK 200m in sales for 2020.

We believe that MedicaNatumin will benefit from the solid underlying market growth on the OTC market and develop products in several different indications. By investing more in its commercial infrastructure and continuing to build clinical evidence, we see opportunities for MedicaNatumin to continue to deliver high sales growth and launch Jabushe and other products in new markets.

We note a number of risk factors for MedicaNatumin, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. From a short-term perspective, there is a risk of a destocking effect in China related to large Jabushe orders.

SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 209 264 277
Sales growth (%) 40,9 26,2 4,7
EBITDA 12 31 36
EBITDA margin (%) 5,6 11,9 13
EBIT adj 2 18 21
EBIT adj margin (%) 0,8 6,7 7,7
Pretax profit -3 16 19
EPS rep -0,01 0,03 0,04
EPS growth (%) -695,9 501,5 26,9
EPS adj 0 0,03 0,04
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 16,9 6,6 5,3
EV/EBIT adj (x) 123,5 11,6 9
P/E (x) -45,5 11,3 8,9
P/E adj (x) -290,7 11,3 8,9
EV/sales (x) 1 0,8 0,7
FCF yield (%) -2,7 -4,6 12,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 4,8 2 1,3
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 209 264 277
COGS -108 -120 -126
Gross profit 101 145 151
Other operating items -90 -113 -115
EBITDA 12 31 36
Depreciation on tangibles -1 -1 -2
Depreciation on intangibles -6 -6 -7
EBITA -1 18 21
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -1 18 21
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -2 -2 -2
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -3 16 19
Tax 0 -3 -3
Net profit -3 13 16
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -3 13 16
EPS -0,01 0,03 0,04
EPS Adj 0 0,03 0,04
Total extraordinary items after tax -2,7 0 0
Tax rate (%) -5,6 -20,6 -17,6
Gross margin (%) 48,4 54,7 54,5
EBITDA margin (%) 5,6 11,9 13
EBITA margin (%) -0,5 6,7 7,7
EBIT margin (%) -0,5 6,7 7,7
Pretax margin (%) -1,6 6 7
Net margin (%) -1,5 4,8 5,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) 40,9 26,2 4,7
EBITDA growth (%) -0,6 166,9 14,4
EBIT growth (%) -151,7 1810,5 20
Net profit growth (%) -696,1 501,5 26,9
EPS growth (%) -695,9 501,5 26,9
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) -2,8 11 12,4
ROE Adj (%) -0,4 11 12,4
ROCE (%) -0,6 9,3 11,1
ROCE Adj(%) 0,9 9,3 11,1
ROIC (%) -0,6 8,1 9,5
ROIC Adj (%) 1 8,1 9,5
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 14 31 36
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 6,9 11,9 13
EBITA Adj 2 18 21
EBITA Adj margin (%) 0,8 6,7 7,7
EBIT Adj 2 18 21
EBIT Adj margin (%) 0,8 6,7 7,7
Pretax profit Adj -1 16 19
Net profit Adj 0 13 16
Net profit to shareholders Adj 0 13 16
Net Adj margin (%) -0,2 4,8 5,8
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
EBITDA 12 31 36
Net financial items -2 -2 -2
Paid tax 0 -3 -3
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 10 26 31
Change in WC 7 -26 -6
Operating cash flow 17 0 25
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -1 -3 -3
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -20 -4 -4
Free cash flow -4 -7 18
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -27 3 1
Decrease in net IB debt -32 -8 17
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 87 80 73
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 4 5 6
Other fixed assets 1 1 1
Fixed assets 112 106 100
Inventories 42 58 61
Receivables 38 48 50
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 24 7 9
Total assets 216 219 219
Shareholders equity 109 121 137
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 109 121 137
Long-term debt 53 43 29
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 12 12 12
Accounts payable 27 27 27
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 216 219 219
Net IB debt 56 64 47
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 56 64 47
Capital invested 165 185 184
Working capital 53 79 84
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 143 143 143
Net IB debt Adj 56 64 48
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 199 207 191
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 108,2 121,7 126,4
Capital invested turnover (%) 138,2 151,2 150,1
Capital employed turnover (%) 123,2 138,9 144,1
Inventories / sales (%) 18,8 18,9 21,5
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 11,2 10,2 9,8
Working capital / sales (%) 23,2 24,8 29,4
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) 51,8 52,7 34,5
Net debt / market cap (%) 37,1 44,7 33
Equity ratio (%) 50,2 55,4 62,2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 51,8 52,7 35,2
Current ratio (%) 247,3 267,3 284,6
EBITDA / net interest (%) 515 1678,6 1920,3
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 476,2 202,8 130,7
Interest cover (%) -45,3 946,9 1135,9
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Shares outstanding adj. 376 376 376
Fully diluted shares Adj 376 376 376
EPS -0,01 0,03 0,04
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0 0,03 0,04
BVPS 0,29 0,32 0,36
BVPS Adj 0,06 0,11 0,17
Net IB debt / share 0,1 0,2 0,1
Share price 0,4 0,38 0,38
Market cap. (m) 151 143 143
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E -45,5 11,3 8,9
EV/sales 0,95 0,78 0,69
EV/EBITDA 16,9 6,6 5,3
EV/EBITA -191,7 11,6 9
EV/EBIT -191,7 11,6 9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -2,7 -4,6 12,8
P/BVPS 1,32 1,18 1,05
P/BVPS Adj 6,5 3,49 2,26
P/E Adj -290,7 11,3 8,9
EV/EBITDA Adj 13,8 6,6 5,3
EV/EBITA Adj 123,5 11,6 9
EV/EBIT Adj 123,5 11,6 9
EV/cap. employed 1,1 1,1 1
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 0,5 1 1
Capex / depreciation 16,2 34,4 32,6
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 26,5 51,4 42,1
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 16,2 25,4 23,5

Equity research

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Media

MedicaNatumin - Company presentation with CEO Ulrika Albers (in English)
MedicaNatumin - Interview with CEO Ulrika Albers (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - MedicaNatumin

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
N.P.H i Habo AB 20.1 % 20.1 %
Avanza Pension 9.5 % 9.5 %
Familjen Jakob & Bengt Johansson 8.5 % 8.5 %
TJ Gruppen AB 4.7 % 4.7 %
Jool Invest AB 4.7 % 4.7 %
Lars Karlsson 3.3 % 3.3 %
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.4 % 2.4 %
Jesper Pettersson 2.2 % 2.2 %
Karl Olov Eriksson 2.1 % 2.1 %
Jörgen Wehmonen 2.0 % 2.0 %

Insider list - MedicaNatumin

Name Quantity Code Date
Lars Kärnerud + 275 000 BUY 11 Mar 2020
Lars Kärnerud + 360 546 BUY 5 Mar 2020
Ulrika Albers + 87 500 BUY 2 Mar 2020
Ulrika Albers + 12 500 BUY 2 Mar 2020
Torbjörn Åke Ingemar Björstrand + 300 000 BUY 28 Feb 2020
Lars Kärnerud +1 000 000 BUY 15 Mar 2019
Ulrika Albers + 44 023 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Ulrika Albers + 45 977 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Ulrika Albers + 10 000 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Erin Gareth Tudor Worrall +1 000 000 SUBS 22 Jan 2019

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