Ferronordic

Leading dealerships of construction equipment with strong aftermarket offerings

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 3241 4083 5021
Sales growth (%) 26.3 26 23
EBITDA 322 383 468
EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 9.4 9.3
EBIT adj 274 323 403
EBIT adj margin (%) 8.4 7.9 8
Pretax profit 267 322 402
EPS rep 13.22 17.31 21.57
EPS growth (%) 63.9 30.9 24.7
EPS adj 14.18 17.31 21.57
DPS 7.5 6.5 8
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8 5.3 4
EV/EBIT adj (x) 5.6 6.3 4.7
P/E (x) 9.6 9.2 7.4
P/E adj (x) 9 9.2 7.4
EV/sales (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4
FCF yield (%) 6.8 4.4 10.6
Dividend yield (%) 5.9 4.1 5
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0.9 -0.8 -1
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITA 274 323 403
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 274 323 403
Other financial items -5 -2 -2
Net financial items -7 -1 -1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 267 322 402
Tax -58 -71 -88
Net profit 209 251 314
Minority interest -17 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 192 251 314
EPS 13.22 17.31 21.57
EPS Adj 14.18 17.31 21.57
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -21.7 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 19 18.5 18.4
EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 9.4 9.3
EBITA margin (%) 8.4 7.9 8
EBIT margin (%) 8.4 7.9 8
Pretax margin (%) 8.2 7.9 8
Net margin (%) 6.5 6.2 6.2
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 26.3 26 23
EBITDA growth (%) 50.4 19.2 22.1
EBIT growth (%) 46.1 18.1 24.6
Net profit growth (%) 38.2 20.3 24.7
EPS growth (%) 63.9 30.9 24.7
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 30.3 34.6 34.5
ROE Adj (%) 30.3 34.6 34.5
ROCE (%) 82.5 75.2 74.9
ROCE Adj(%) 82.5 75.2 74.9
ROIC (%) 74.6 64.6 63.1
ROIC Adj (%) 74.6 64.6 63.1
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 322 383 468
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 9.9 9.4 9.3
EBITA Adj 274 323 403
EBITA Adj margin (%) 8.4 7.9 8
EBIT Adj 274 323 403
EBIT Adj margin (%) 8.4 7.9 8
Pretax profit Adj 267 322 402
Net profit Adj 209 251 314
Net profit to shareholders Adj 192 251 314
Net Adj margin (%) 6.5 6.2 6.2
Sales 3241 4083 5021
COGS -2627 -3328 -4097
Gross profit 614 756 924
Other operating items -293 -372 -456
EBITDA 322 383 468
Depreciation on tangibles -48 -60 -65
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 322 383 468
Net financial items -7 -1 -1
Paid tax -58 -71 -88
Non-cash items -166 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 91 311 379
Change in WC 70 -168 -81
Operating cash flow 161 144 297
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -42 -37 -45
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -2 -4 -5
Acquisitions and disposals 10 0 0
Free cash flow 126 103 247
Dividend paid -30 -109 -94
Share issues and buybacks -80 0 0
Other non cash items -26 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt -9 -6 152
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 6 7 9
Tangible fixed assets 263 243 226
Other fixed assets 41 41 41
Fixed assets 310 290 276
Inventories 741 1021 1280
Receivables 320 410 504
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 357 350 503
Total assets 1727 2072 2563
Shareholders equity 656 798 1017
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 656 798 1017
Long-term debt 28 28 28
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 1 1 1
Other long-term liabilities 2 2 2
Short-term debt 26 26 26
Accounts payable 1014 1216 1488
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 1033 1414 1727
Net IB debt -303 -297 -449
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -303 -297 -449
Capital invested 316 465 531
Working capital 47 215 296
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 1849 2322 2322
Net IB debt Adj -303 -297 -449
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1546 2026 1873
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 206.3 215 216.7
Capital invested turnover (%) 1128.2 1046.3 1008.5
Capital employed turnover (%) 993.7 955.4 938.5
Inventories / sales (%) 21.2 21.6 22.9
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 27.4 27.3 26.9
Working capital / sales (%) 2.5 3.2 5.1
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -46.2 -37.2 -44.1
Net debt / market cap (%) -15.8 -12.8 -19.3
Equity ratio (%) 38 38.5 39.7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -46.2 -37.2 -44.1
Current ratio (%) 136.3 143.4 151.1
EBITDA / net interest (%) 18024 -31935.4 -38977.4
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -94.2 -77.4 -96
Interest cover (%) 15341.4 -26935.4 -33560.8
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 15 15 15
Fully diluted shares Adj 15 15 15
EPS 13.22 17.31 21.57
Dividend per share Adj 7.5 6.5 8
EPS Adj 14.18 17.31 21.57
BVPS 45.14 54.94 70.01
BVPS Adj 44.71 54.45 69.4
Net IB debt / share -20.8 -20.4 -30.9
Share price 131.47 159.8 159.8
Market cap. (m) 1911 2322 2322
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 9.6 9.2 7.4
EV/sales 0.48 0.5 0.37
EV/EBITDA 4.8 5.3 4
EV/EBITA 5.6 6.3 4.7
EV/EBIT 5.6 6.3 4.7
Dividend yield (%) 5.9 4.1 5
FCF yield (%) 6.8 4.4 10.6
P/BVPS 2.82 2.91 2.28
P/BVPS Adj 2.84 2.94 2.3
P/E Adj 9 9.2 7.4
EV/EBITDA Adj 4.8 5.3 4
EV/EBITA Adj 5.6 6.3 4.7
EV/EBIT Adj 5.6 6.3 4.7
EV/cap. employed 4.4 4 3.3
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 1.4 1 1
Capex / depreciation 93.2 68.1 77.2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 16.1 15.2 20
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 37.9 56.6 55.9
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 18.2 24.7 28.8

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