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BioGaia

Useful bacteria

BioGaia develops, markets and sells probiotic products. Probiotics are useful bacteria that have documented positive health effects in the body. The applications for BioGaia products are mainly in gastrointestinal, oral and immune health and the products are available in a variety of different types of bottles. Sales are mainly through distribution partners in pharmacies worldwide. The company has two business areas: Pediatrics and Adult Health.

We believe that BioGaia will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (7-9% annually) in the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for BioGaia to continue to deliver high sales growth by improving its market position. In addition, BioGaia can take care of the opportunities to develop drugs based on probiotics.

We note a number of risks factors for BioGaia, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. From a short-term perspective there is a risk of destocking effect in some markets.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 742 814 955
Sales growth (%) 20,6 9,7 17,3
EBITDA 285 251 313
EBITDA margin (%) 38,4 30,8 32,8
EBIT adj 277 243 303
EBIT adj margin (%) 37,4 29,8 31,8
Pretax profit 278 243 303
EPS rep 12,35 10,91 13,65
EPS growth (%) 19,1 -11,7 25,1
EPS adj 12,35 10,91 13,65
DPS 9 7,64 9,55
EV/EBITDA (x) 18,3 30,7 24,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) 18,8 31,8 25,1
P/E (x) 25,7 42,5 34
P/E adj (x) 25,7 42,5 34
EV/sales (x) 7 9,5 8
FCF yield (%) 2,5 2,7 2,7
Dividend yield (%) 2,8 1,6 2,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1 -1,3 -1,3
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 742 814 955
COGS -186 -223 -261
Gross profit 556 591 693
Other operating items -271 -340 -381
EBITDA 285 251 313
Depreciation on tangibles -8 -8 -10
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 277 243 303
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 277 243 303
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 278 243 303
Tax -63 -54 -67
Net profit 215 189 237
Minority interest -1 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 214 189 237
EPS 12,35 10,91 13,65
EPS Adj 12,35 10,91 13,65
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22,6 -22,1 -22
Gross margin (%) 74,9 72,6 72,6
EBITDA margin (%) 38,4 30,8 32,8
EBITA margin (%) 37,4 29,8 31,8
EBIT margin (%) 37,4 29,8 31,8
Pretax margin (%) 37,4 29,8 31,8
Net margin (%) 28,9 23,2 24,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 20,6 9,7 17,3
EBITDA growth (%) 18,5 -12 24,7
EBIT growth (%) 18,6 -12,5 25
Net profit growth (%) 19,5 -11,9 25,1
EPS growth (%) 19,1 -11,7 25,1
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 44,2 36,3 40,1
ROE Adj (%) 44,2 36,3 40,1
ROCE (%) 57,2 46,4 51,2
ROCE Adj(%) 57,2 46,4 51,2
ROIC (%) 95,1 72,5 91,8
ROIC Adj (%) 95,1 72,5 91,8
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 285 251 313
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 38,4 30,8 32,8
EBITA Adj 277 243 303
EBITA Adj margin (%) 37,4 29,8 31,8
EBIT Adj 277 243 303
EBIT Adj margin (%) 37,4 29,8 31,8
Pretax profit Adj 278 243 303
Net profit Adj 215 189 237
Net profit to shareholders Adj 214 189 237
Net Adj margin (%) 28,9 23,2 24,8
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 285 251 313
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax -52 -54 -67
Non-cash items 4 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 237 197 246
Change in WC -54 35 -13
Operating cash flow 183 232 234
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -13 -16 -18
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -34 0 0
Free cash flow 136 217 215
Dividend paid -156 -156 -132
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -1 -16 0
Decrease in net IB debt -21 45 83
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 51 51 51
Tangible fixed assets 106 113 122
Other fixed assets 8 8 8
Fixed assets 166 173 181
Inventories 44 43 51
Receivables 124 106 124
Other current assets 42 42 42
Cash and liquid assets 285 330 413
Total assets 660 693 811
Shareholders equity 505 538 643
Minority 3 3 3
Total equity 508 541 646
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 7 7 7
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 34 26 31
Other current liabilities 111 119 127
Total liabilities and equity 489 576 660
Net IB debt -285 -330 -413
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -285 -330 -413
Capital invested 274 247 268
Working capital 109 74 87
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 5504 8035 8035
Net IB debt Adj -285 -330 -413
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 5219 7705 7622
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 120 120,3 126,9
Capital invested turnover (%) 328,8 312,4 370,8
Capital employed turnover (%) 152,6 155,1 160,8
Inventories / sales (%) 5,2 5,4 4,9
Customer advances / sales (%) 4,1 4,5 5,6
Payables / sales (%) 3,7 3,7 3
Working capital / sales (%) 11,1 11,2 8,4
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -56,1 -60,9 -63,9
Net debt / market cap (%) -4,2 -4,1 -5,1
Equity ratio (%) 77 78,1 79,7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -56,1 -60,9 -63,9
Current ratio (%) 340,6 358,7 398,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) -120722,5 -96862,9 -103022,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -100 -131,5 -132
Interest cover (%) 68642 54738,7 58328,2
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 17 17 17
Fully diluted shares Adj 17 17 17
EPS 12,35 10,91 13,65
Dividend per share Adj 9 7,6 9,6
EPS Adj 12,35 10,91 13,65
BVPS 29,13 31,05 37,08
BVPS Adj 26,18 28,1 34,13
Net IB debt / share -16,4 -19 -23,8
Share price 391,36 463,5 463,5
Market cap. (m) 6785 8035 8035
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 25,7 42,5 34
EV/sales 7,04 9,47 7,98
EV/EBITDA 18,3 30,7 24,4
EV/EBITA 18,8 31,8 25,1
EV/EBIT 18,8 31,8 25,1
Dividend yield (%) 2,8 1,6 2,1
FCF yield (%) 2,5 2,7 2,7
P/BVPS 10,9 14,93 12,5
P/BVPS Adj 12,13 16,49 13,58
P/E Adj 25,7 42,5 34
EV/EBITDA Adj 18,3 30,7 24,4
EV/EBITA Adj 18,8 31,8 25,1
EV/EBIT Adj 18,8 31,8 25,1
EV/cap. employed 10,3 14,2 11,8
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 1,8 1,9 1,9
Capex / depreciation 178,3 187,4 187,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 12,7 13,7 15
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 7,1 7,3 8

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Main shareholders

BioGaia

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Peter Rotschild & Jan Annwall 6.3 % 32.4 % 31 Mar 2019
Swedbank Robur Fonder 9.6 % 6.9 % 30 Apr 2019
Fjärde AP-fonden 8.1 % 5.9 % 31 Mar 2019
Sebastian Jahreskog 6.9 % 5.0 % 28 Oct 2016
David Dangoor 3.0 % 2.2 % 31 Mar 2019
Juno Investment Partners 2.4 % 1.7 % 31 Jan 2019
Handelsbanken Fonder 1.6 % 1.2 % 30 Apr 2019
Allianz Global Investors 1.6 % 1.1 % 31 Mar 2019
Dimensional Fund Advisors 1.5 % 1.1 % 31 Mar 2019
Tredje AP-fonden 1.4 % 1.0 % 31 Mar 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

BioGaia

Name Quantity Code Date
Margareta Hagman - 3 000 SELL 21 May 2019
Kristina Magnusson Borg - 250 SELL 8 May 2019
Kristina Magnusson Borg - 500 SELL 8 May 2019
Inger Kristina Magnusson Borg + 40 BUY 19 Mar 2019
Peter Michael Rothschild + 200 BUY 1 Mar 2019
Isabelle Ducellier + 375 BUY 20 Dec 2018
Per Aniansson + 500 BUY 10 Dec 2018
Annwall & Rothschild Investments AB - 92 404 SELL 23 Nov 2018
Annwall & Rothschild Investments AB - 52 896 SELL 22 Nov 2018
Peter Michael Rothschild - 4 700 SELL 16 Nov 2018

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