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BioGaia

Useful bacteria

BioGaia develops, markets and sells probiotic products. Probiotics are useful bacteria that have documented positive health effects in the body. The applications for BioGaia products are mainly in gastrointestinal, oral and immune health and the products are available in a variety of different types of bottles. Sales are mainly through distribution partners in pharmacies worldwide. The company has two business areas: Pediatrics and Adult Health.

We believe that BioGaia will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (7-9% annually) in the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for BioGaia to continue to deliver high sales growth by improving its market position. In addition, BioGaia can take care of the opportunities to develop drugs based on probiotics.

We note a number of risks factors for BioGaia, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. From a short-term perspective there is a risk of destocking effect in some markets.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 742 824 1029
Sales growth (%) 20,6 11,1 24,8
EBITDA 285 285 395
EBITDA margin (%) 38,4 34,6 38,4
EBIT adj 277 279 387
EBIT adj margin (%) 37,4 33,9 37,6
Pretax profit 278 279 388
EPS rep 12,37 12,58 17,72
EPS growth (%) 18,1 1,7 40,9
EPS adj 12,37 12,58 17,72
DPS 10 9,5 10
EV/EBITDA (x) 18,3 27,5 19,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 18,8 28,1 19,9
P/E (x) 25,7 37,4 26,5
P/E adj (x) 25,7 37,4 26,5
EV/sales (x) 7 9,5 7,5
FCF yield (%) 2,5 2,4 3,3
Dividend yield (%) 3,1 2 2,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1 -1,1 -1,1
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 742 824 1029
COGS -186 -208 -257
Gross profit 556 616 772
Other operating items -271 -331 -377
EBITDA 285 285 395
Depreciation on tangibles -8 -6 -8
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 277 279 387
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 277 279 387
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 278 279 388
Tax -62 -61 -87
Net profit 215 218 301
Minority interest -1 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 214 218 301
EPS 12,37 12,58 17,72
EPS Adj 12,37 12,58 17,72
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22,5 -22 -22,4
Gross margin (%) 74,9 74,8 75
EBITDA margin (%) 38,4 34,6 38,4
EBITA margin (%) 37,4 33,9 37,6
EBIT margin (%) 37,4 33,9 37,6
Pretax margin (%) 37,4 33,9 37,7
Net margin (%) 29 26,5 29,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 20,6 11,1 24,8
EBITDA growth (%) 18,5 0,1 38,4
EBIT growth (%) 18,6 0,7 38,6
Net profit growth (%) 18,4 1,4 38
EPS growth (%) 18,1 1,7 40,9
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 44,3 41,4 47,4
ROE Adj (%) 44,3 41,4 47,4
ROCE (%) 150,4 123,5 150,7
ROCE Adj(%) 150,4 123,5 150,7
ROIC (%) 102,6 82,7 101,1
ROIC Adj (%) 102,6 82,7 101,1
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 285 285 395
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 38,4 34,6 38,4
EBITA Adj 277 279 387
EBITA Adj margin (%) 37,4 33,9 37,6
EBIT Adj 277 279 387
EBIT Adj margin (%) 37,4 33,9 37,6
Pretax profit Adj 278 279 388
Net profit Adj 215 218 301
Net profit to shareholders Adj 214 218 301
Net Adj margin (%) 29 26,5 29,2
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 285 285 395
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax -52 -61 -87
Non-cash items -17 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 215 224 309
Change in WC -32 6 -15
Operating cash flow 183 229 306
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -13 -32 -40
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -34 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 136 197 266
Dividend paid -156 -173 -165
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 1 0 -1
Decrease in net IB debt -19 24 100
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 51 51 51
Tangible fixed assets 106 132 164
Other fixed assets 8 8 8
Fixed assets 166 192 224
Inventories 46 52 64
Receivables 125 112 136
Other current assets 32 27 34
Cash and liquid assets 292 316 445
Total assets 660 699 903
Shareholders equity 505 549 719
Minority 3 3 3
Total equity 508 553 723
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 7 7 7
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 27 28 34
Other current liabilities 118 112 139
Total liabilities and equity 489 576 660
Net IB debt -292 -316 -445
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -292 -316 -445
Capital invested 253 273 321
Working capital 96 90 106
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 5504 8148 8148
Net IB debt Adj -292 -316 -445
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 5212 7832 7703
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 120 121,3 128,4
Capital invested turnover (%) 354,1 313 346
Capital employed turnover (%) 402 364,1 400,1
Inventories / sales (%) 5,3 5,9 5,6
Customer advances / sales (%) 5,7 5,7 5,1
Payables / sales (%) 3,2 3,3 3
Working capital / sales (%) 10,8 11,3 9,5
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -57,5 -57,2 -61,6
Net debt / market cap (%) -4,3 -3,9 -5,5
Equity ratio (%) 77 79,1 80
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -57,5 -57,2 -61,6
Current ratio (%) 340,6 363,3 391,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) -44447 -92360,3 -90207,8
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -102,5 -110,8 -112,7
Interest cover (%) N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 17 17 17
Fully diluted shares Adj 17 17 17
EPS 12,37 12,58 17,72
Dividend per share Adj 10 9,5 10
EPS Adj 12,37 12,58 17,72
BVPS 29,13 31,69 41,5
BVPS Adj 26,18 28,74 38,55
Net IB debt / share -16,8 -18,2 -25,7
Share price 391,36 470 470
Market cap. (m) 6785 8148 8148
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 25,7 37,4 26,5
EV/sales 7,03 9,51 7,49
EV/EBITDA 18,3 27,5 19,5
EV/EBITA 18,8 28,1 19,9
EV/EBIT 18,8 28,1 19,9
Dividend yield (%) 3,1 2 2,1
FCF yield (%) 2,5 2,4 3,3
P/BVPS 10,9 14,83 11,33
P/BVPS Adj 12,13 16,35 12,19
P/E Adj 25,7 37,4 26,5
EV/EBITDA Adj 18,3 27,5 19,5
EV/EBITA Adj 18,8 28,1 19,9
EV/EBIT Adj 18,8 28,1 19,9
EV/cap. employed 24,1 33,1 27,7
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 6,4 3,9 3,9
Capex / depreciation 626,8 523,7 515,5
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 12,6 24,4 24,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 66,3 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 7,1 4,7 4,7

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Main shareholders

BioGaia

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Peter Rotschild & Jan Annwall 6.3 % 32.4 % 1 Mar 2019
Swedbank Robur Fonder 9.4 % 6.8 % 28 Feb 2019
Fjärde AP-fonden 8.1 % 5.9 % 31 Dec 2018
Sebastian Jahreskog 6.9 % 5.0 % 28 Oct 2016
David Dangoor 3.0 % 2.2 % 31 Dec 2018
Juno Investment Partners 2.4 % 1.7 % 30 Nov 2018
Allianz Global Investors 1.6 % 1.2 % 31 Jan 2019
Handelsbanken Fonder 1.5 % 1.1 % 28 Feb 2019
Dimensional Fund Advisors 1.4 % 1.0 % 31 Jan 2019
Didrik Hamilton 1.4 % 1.0 % 31 Dec 2018
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

BioGaia

Name Quantity Code Date
Peter Michael Rothschild + 200 BUY 1 Mar 2019
Isabelle Ducellier + 375 BUY 20 Dec 2018
Per Aniansson + 500 BUY 10 Dec 2018
Annwall & Rothschild Investments AB - 92 404 SELL 23 Nov 2018
Annwall & Rothschild Investments AB - 52 896 SELL 22 Nov 2018
Peter Michael Rothschild - 4 700 SELL 16 Nov 2018
Isabelle Ducellier + 625 BUY 9 Nov 2018
Annwall & Rothschild Investments AB - 250 000 SELL 7 Dec 2017
Åsa Skansjö Sjöblad + 75 BUY 21 Aug 2017
Welin-Berger, Katayoun + 300 BUY 10 Mar 2016

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