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Biovica

Biovica

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Rapid and effective evaluation of cancer treatments

Biovica is a biotechnology company whose patented technology platform, DiviTum, measures the cell growth rate of patients with solid cancer tumours. The test is designed to provide a measure of how fast cancer grows, as well as whether targeted cancer treatment is effective. Biovica has initially chosen to focus on evaluating the treatment effect on metastatic breast cancer. The company is in an early commercial phase and currently has sales to the research market. Commercial launch in 2021 is estimated for Europe and the United States.

We believe there are good opportunities for Biovica to receive reimbursement for the company's product DiviTum in a number of markets. DiviTum's advantage over existing methods is that only a blood sample is required, and the technology is expected to enable an assessment of treatment effect already after 2-4 weeks, which can be compared to the average time for most of today's methods in about 2-4 months.

We note a number of risks factors for Biovica, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, there is a risk that Divitum will not receive reimbursement on key markets in Europe and the United States and that today's standardized methods could be considered better.

Financials

SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -8,9 -4,1 -3,3
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 1,6 3,9 5
Sales 2 3 39
Sales growth (%) -44 76,5 1222
EBITDA -26 -34 -21
EBITDA margin (%) -1537,6 -1135,6 -53,8
EBIT adj -30 -40 -28
EBIT adj margin (%) -1787,3 -1352,5 -71,8
Pretax profit -30 -40 -28
EPS rep -1,29 -1,42 -0,99
EPS growth (%) 2,6 -10,4 30,3
EPS adj -1,29 -1,42 -0,99
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -12,7 -27,3 -44,6
EV/EBIT adj (x) -10,9 -22,9 -33,4
P/E (x) -12 -26 -37,4
P/E adj (x) -12 -26 -37,4
EV/sales (x) 195,2 309,6 24
FCF yield (%) -8,6 -4 -3,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 1,5 4 5,2
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Leasing payments -1 -1 -1
Depreciation and amortisation -4 -6 -7
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj -26 -35 -22
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) -1537,6 -1170,9 -56,8
Sales 2 3 39
COGS 0 -1 -6
Gross profit 2 2 34
Other operating items -27 -35 -55
EBITDA -26 -34 -21
Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles -4 -6 -7
EBITA -30 -40 -28
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -30 -40 -28
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -30 -40 -28
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -30 -40 -28
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -30 -40 -28
EPS -1,29 -1,42 -0,99
EPS Adj -1,29 -1,42 -0,99
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,2 0 0
Gross margin (%) 100 59,3 85,9
EBITDA margin (%) -1537,6 -1135,6 -53,8
EBITA margin (%) -1787,3 -1352,5 -71,8
EBIT margin (%) -1787,3 -1352,5 -71,8
Pretax margin (%) -1813,8 -1362,7 -71,8
Net margin (%) -1817,3 -1362,7 -71,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) -44 76,5 1222
EBITDA growth (%) -24,1 -30,4 37,3
EBIT growth (%) -24,9 -33,6 29,8
Net profit growth (%) -25,1 -32,4 30,3
EPS growth (%) 2,6 -10,4 30,3
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) -46,6 -31,3 -17
ROE Adj (%) -46,6 -31,3 -17
ROCE (%) -45,1 -30,5 -16,8
ROCE Adj(%) -45,1 -30,5 -16,8
ROIC (%) -78,9 -92,8 -63
ROIC Adj (%) -78,9 -92,8 -63
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj -26 -34 -21
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -1537,6 -1135,6 -53,8
EBITA Adj -30 -40 -28
EBITA Adj margin (%) -1787,3 -1352,5 -71,8
EBIT Adj -30 -40 -28
EBIT Adj margin (%) -1787,3 -1352,5 -71,8
Pretax profit Adj -30 -40 -28
Net profit Adj -30 -40 -28
Net profit to shareholders Adj -30 -40 -28
Net Adj margin (%) -1817,3 -1362,7 -71,8
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease liability amortisation -1 -1 -1
Other intangible assets 43 48 40
Right-of-use asset 3 4 5
Total other fixed assets 1 0 0
Leasing liability 2 2 2
Total other long-term liabilities 1 1 2
Net IB debt excl. leasing -42 -135 -112
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 161,6 391,4 504,9
EBITDA -26 -34 -21
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -26 -34 -21
Change in WC 2 0 -3
Operating cash flow -24 -34 -24
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -7 -8 -9
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow -31 -42 -34
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 57 140 0
Other non cash items -2 -4 10
Decrease in net IB debt 22 96 -23
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 43 48 40
Tangible fixed assets 1 3 3
Other fixed assets 1 0 0
Fixed assets 48 56 49
Inventories 0 0 5
Receivables 0 2 25
Other current assets 1 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 41 135 112
Total assets 90 193 191
Shareholders equity 78 178 150
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 78 178 150
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 1 1 1
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 1
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 1 8
Other current liabilities 9 11 29
Total liabilities and equity 90 193 191
Net IB debt -39 -133 -110
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -39 -133 -110
Capital invested 40 46 43
Working capital -8 -9 -6
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 365 1046 1046
Net IB debt Adj -39 -133 -110
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 326 913 937
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 2,2 2,1 20,3
Capital invested turnover (%) 4,4 4,4 87,8
Capital employed turnover (%) 2,5 1,4 23,1
Inventories / sales (%) 25,2 17,4 7,3
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 25 26,2
Payables / sales (%) 0 10 10,5
Working capital / sales (%) -363,6 -285,5 -19,7
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) -50,2 -74,5 -72,8
Net debt / market cap (%) -13,4 -13,4 -10,5
Equity ratio (%) 86,7 92,4 78,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -50,2 -74,5 -72,8
Current ratio (%) 466,9 1179,9 386,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) -5786,9 -11166,9 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 152,8 396,7 521,5
Interest cover (%) -6726,4 -13300 0
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -8,9 -4,1 -3,3
Shares outstanding adj. 24 28 28
Fully diluted shares Adj 24 28 28
EPS -1,29 -1,42 -0,99
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -1,29 -1,42 -0,99
BVPS 3,32 6,31 5,32
BVPS Adj 1,51 4,61 3,91
Net IB debt / share -1,7 -4,7 -3,9
Share price 12,46 35,05 37
Market cap. (m) 294 991 1046
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E -12 -26 -37,4
EV/sales 195,18 309,56 24,02
EV/EBITDA -12,7 -27,3 -44,6
EV/EBITA -10,9 -22,9 -33,4
EV/EBIT -10,9 -22,9 -33,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -8,6 -4 -3,2
P/BVPS 4,67 5,86 6,95
P/BVPS Adj 10,28 8,02 9,47
P/E Adj -12 -26 -37,4
EV/EBITDA Adj -12,7 -27,3 -44,6
EV/EBITA Adj -10,9 -22,9 -33,4
EV/EBIT Adj -10,9 -22,9 -33,4
EV/cap. employed 4,1 5,1 6,1
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 421 281,4 23,8
Capex / depreciation 168,7 129,7 132,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 16,5 17,3 23,3
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 9,8 13,3 17,5
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

Equity research

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Media

Biovica - Company presentation with SVP in Business Development Henrik Winther
Biovica - Company presentation with CEO Anders Rylander (in English)

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Main shareholders - Biovica

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Anders Rylander 13.9 % 26.8 % 30 Apr 2021
Gunnar Rylander 5.3 % 8.1 % 30 Apr 2021
Avanza Pension 7.0 % 4.8 % 30 Apr 2021
Coeli 5.1 % 3.5 % 30 Apr 2021
Lancelot Asset Management AB 2.8 % 1.9 % 30 Apr 2021
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.4 % 1.6 % 30 Apr 2021
Henrik Osvald 2.2 % 1.5 % 30 Apr 2021
LYM Consulting AB 1.7 % 1.2 % 30 Apr 2021
Lars Erik Holmqvist 1.7 % 1.2 % 30 Apr 2021
Andra AP-fonden 1.7 % 1.1 % 30 Apr 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Biovica

Name Quantity Code Date
Henrik Osvald + 60 000 BUY 19 Mar 2021
Anders Rylander Investment AB + 127 000 Received loan 28 Jan 2021
Cecilia Driving - 10 000 Redemp 25 Jan 2021
Cecilia Driving + 10 000 Redemp 25 Jan 2021
Cecilia Driving - 10 000 SELL 22 Jan 2021
Anders Rylander Investment AB - 127 000 Received loan 12 Jan 2021
Lars Holmqvist + 23 000 BUY 11 Dec 2020
Anders Rylander + 1 560 BUY 2 Nov 2020
Henrik Osvald + 25 000 BUY 28 Oct 2020
Robert Dann + 20 000 BUY 28 Oct 2020

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