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Biovica

Biovica

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Rapid and effective evaluation of cancer treatments

Biovica is a biotechnology company whose patented technology platform, DiviTum, measures the cell growth rate of patients with solid cancer tumours. The test is designed to provide a measure of how fast cancer grows, as well as whether targeted cancer treatment is effective. Biovica has initially chosen to focus on evaluating the treatment effect on metastatic breast cancer. The company is in an early commercial phase and currently has sales to the research market. Commercial launch in 2021 is estimated for Europe and the United States.

We believe there are good opportunities for Biovica to receive reimbursement for the company's product DiviTum in a number of markets. DiviTum's advantage over existing methods is that only a blood sample is required, and the technology is expected to enable an assessment of treatment effect already after 2-4 weeks, which can be compared to the average time for most of today's methods in about 2-4 months.

We note a number of risks factors for Biovica, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, there is a risk that Divitum will not receive reimbursement on key markets in Europe and the United States and that today's standardized methods could be considered better.

Financials

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 2 4 36
Sales growth (%) -42,2 102,8 917,9
EBITDA -23 -40 2
EBITDA margin (%) -1324,9 -1150,6 4,8
EBIT adj -27 -47 -5
EBIT adj margin (%) -1564,4 -1333,4 -14,9
Pretax profit -27 -47 -5
EPS rep -0,48 -1,99 -0,22
EPS growth (%) 64,1 -319 88,7
EPS adj -0,48 -1,99 -0,22
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -22,8 -14,2 336,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) -19,3 -12,3 -107,9
P/E (x) -50,5 -12 -106,7
P/E adj (x) -50,5 -12 -106,7
EV/sales (x) 301,9 163,7 16,1
FCF yield (%) -2,2 -8,7 -1,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 2 -0,2 3,7
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 2 4 36
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 2 4 36
Other operating items -25 -44 -34
EBITDA -23 -40 2
Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles -4 -6 -7
EBITA -27 -47 -5
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -27 -47 -5
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -27 -47 -5
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -27 -47 -5
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -27 -47 -5
EPS -0,48 -1,99 -0,22
EPS Adj -0,48 -1,99 -0,22
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) -1324,9 -1150,6 4,8
EBITA margin (%) -1564,4 -1333,4 -14,9
EBIT margin (%) -1564,4 -1333,4 -14,9
Pretax margin (%) -1561,7 -1342 -14,9
Net margin (%) -1561,7 -1342 -14,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) -42,2 102,8 917,9
EBITDA growth (%) -10,5 -76,1 104,2
EBIT growth (%) -12,9 -72,8 88,6
Net profit growth (%) -11,1 -74,3 88,7
EPS growth (%) 64,1 -319 88,7
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -40,3 -80,5 -16,5
ROE Adj (%) -40,3 -80,5 -16,5
ROCE (%) -40,3 -80 -16,5
ROCE Adj(%) -40,3 -80 -16,5
ROIC (%) -73,7 -118 -13,4
ROIC Adj (%) -73,7 -118 -13,4
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj -23 -40 2
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -1324,9 -1150,6 4,8
EBITA Adj -27 -47 -5
EBITA Adj margin (%) -1564,4 -1333,4 -14,9
EBIT Adj -27 -47 -5
EBIT Adj margin (%) -1564,4 -1333,4 -14,9
Pretax profit Adj -27 -47 -5
Net profit Adj -27 -47 -5
Net profit to shareholders Adj -27 -47 -5
Net Adj margin (%) -1561,7 -1342 -14,9
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA -23 -40 2
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -23 -41 2
Change in WC 5 0 -3
Operating cash flow -21 -41 -1
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -9 -8 -9
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow -29 -49 -10
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 57 0 0
Other non cash items 0 -3 10
Decrease in net IB debt 28 -52 1
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 44 48 40
Tangible fixed assets 3 3 3
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 47 51 43
Inventories 0 0 5
Receivables 1 2 23
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 45 -7 -6
Total assets 93 47 65
Shareholders equity 82 35 30
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 82 35 30
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 1
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 1 7
Other current liabilities 10 11 27
Total liabilities and equity 93 47 65
Net IB debt -45 7 6
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -45 7 6
Capital invested 37 42 37
Working capital -9 -9 -6
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 566 566 566
Net IB debt Adj -45 7 6
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 521 573 572
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 2,2 5 63,6
Capital invested turnover (%) 4,7 8,9 90,4
Capital employed turnover (%) 2,6 6 110,6
Inventories / sales (%) 19,9 10,5 7,7
Customer advances / sales (%) 25 37,3 27,5
Payables / sales (%) 10 14,9 11
Working capital / sales (%) -406,7 -266,9 -21,9
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -54,7 20,4 21,4
Net debt / market cap (%) -17,2 1,3 1,1
Equity ratio (%) 88,4 74,3 45,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -54,7 20,4 21,4
Current ratio (%) 426 -37,5 62,8
EBITDA / net interest (%) -48655,3 -13423,6 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 195,6 -17,7 371,5
Interest cover (%) 57451,1 -15556,7 N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 24 24 24
Fully diluted shares Adj 24 24 24
EPS -0,48 -1,99 -0,22
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -0,48 -1,99 -0,22
BVPS 3,47 1,48 1,25
BVPS Adj 1,63 -0,56 -0,44
Net IB debt / share -1,9 0,3 0,3
Share price 11,03 24 24
Market cap. (m) 260 566 566
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -50,5 -12 -106,7
EV/sales 301,87 163,68 16,06
EV/EBITDA -22,8 -14,2 336,5
EV/EBITA -19,3 -12,3 -107,9
EV/EBIT -19,3 -12,3 -107,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -2,2 -8,7 -1,9
P/BVPS 6,91 16,23 19,14
P/BVPS Adj 14,77 -43,04 -54,16
P/E Adj -50,5 -12 -106,7
EV/EBITDA Adj -22,8 -14,2 336,5
EV/EBITA Adj -19,3 -12,3 -107,9
EV/EBIT Adj -19,3 -12,3 -107,9
EV/cap. employed 6,4 16,4 19,4
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 492,5 237,1 26,1
Capex / depreciation 205,6 129,7 132,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 19,5 17,3 23,3
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 9,5 13,3 17,5
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

Equity research

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Media

Biovica - Company presentation with CEO Anders Rylander (in English)
Biovica - Interview with CEO Anders Rylander

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Main shareholders - Biovica

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Anders Rylander 16.6 % 29.0 % 30 Apr 2020
Gunnar Rylander 6.4 % 9.0 % 30 Apr 2020
Kristina Gronowitz 1.7 % 3.3 % 30 Apr 2020
Coeli 4.9 % 3.1 % 30 Apr 2020
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 3.4 % 2.1 % 30 Apr 2020
Avanza Pension 3.3 % 2.1 % 30 Apr 2020
LYM Consulting AB 2.1 % 1.3 % 30 Apr 2020
Henrik Osvald 2.0 % 1.2 % 30 Apr 2020
Lars Holmqvist 1.7 % 1.1 % 30 Apr 2020
Eccenovo AB 1.3 % 0.8 % 30 Apr 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Biovica

Name Quantity Code Date
Robert Dann + 12 960 BUY 31 Mar 2020
Robert Dann + 1 480 BUY 30 Mar 2020
Robert Dann + 5 560 BUY 27 Mar 2020
Henrik Osvald + 50 000 BUY 18 Mar 2020
Anders Rylander Investment AB + 5 800 BUY 16 Mar 2020
Anders Rylander + 5 000 BUY 13 Mar 2020
Adam Germunder + 20 000 BUY 31 Oct 2019
Wing-Shing Cheng + 20 000 BUY 31 Oct 2019
Wing-Shing Cheng + 1 200 BUY 13 May 2019
Cecilia Driving + 1 000 BUY 10 May 2019

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