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Biovica

Rapid and effective evaluation of cancer treatments

Biovica is a biotechnology company whose patented technology platform, DiviTum, measures the cell growth rate of patients with solid cancer tumours. The test is designed to provide a measure of how fast cancer grows, as well as whether targeted cancer treatment is effective. Biovica has initially chosen to focus on evaluating the treatment effect on metastatic breast cancer. The company is in an early commercial phase and currently has sales to the research market. Commercial launch in 2020 is estimated for Europe and the United States.

We believe there are good opportunities for Biovica to receive reimbursement for the company's product DiviTum in a number of markets. DiviTum's advantage over existing methods is that only a blood sample is required, and the technology is expected to enable an assessment of treatment effect already after 2-4 weeks, which can be compared to the average time for most of today's methods in about 2-4 months.

We note a number of risks factors for Biovica, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, there is a risk that Divitum will not receive reimbursement on key markets in Europe and the United States and that today's standardized methods could be considered better.

Financials

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 3 4 5
Sales growth (%) 9,6 37,4 22
EBITDA -21 -14 -30
EBITDA margin (%) -693,5 -329,8 -590
EBIT adj -24 -18 -36
EBIT adj margin (%) -801,1 -439,5 -718
Pretax profit -24 -18 -36
EPS rep -1,32 -0,76 -1,54
EPS growth (%) -29,1 42,2 -100,9
EPS adj -1,32 -0,76 -1,54
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -6,6 -18,2 -9,8
EV/EBIT adj (x) -5,7 -13,7 -8
P/E (x) -6,3 -16,7 -8,3
P/E adj (x) -6,3 -16,7 -8,3
EV/sales (x) 46 60,1 57,6
FCF yield (%) -21,3 -6,6 -12,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 0,8 4 0,4
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 3 4 5
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 3 4 5
Other operating items -24 -18 -35
EBITDA -21 -14 -30
Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles -3 -5 -6
EBITA -24 -18 -36
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -24 -18 -36
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -24 -18 -36
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -24 -18 -36
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -24 -18 -36
EPS -1,32 -0,76 -1,54
EPS Adj -1,32 -0,76 -1,54
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,1 0 0
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) -693,5 -329,8 -590
EBITA margin (%) -801,1 -439,5 -718
EBIT margin (%) -801,1 -439,5 -718
Pretax margin (%) -811,8 -439,5 -724
Net margin (%) -812,9 -439,5 -724
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 9,6 37,4 22
EBITDA growth (%) -36 34,7 -118,2
EBIT growth (%) -33,2 24,6 -99,2
Net profit growth (%) -34,7 25,7 -100,9
EPS growth (%) -29,1 42,2 -100,9
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) -38,6 -25,2 -49,8
ROE Adj (%) -38,6 -25,2 -49,8
ROCE (%) -38 -25,2 -49,4
ROCE Adj(%) -38 -25,2 -49,4
ROIC (%) -61,4 -40,2 -73,4
ROIC Adj (%) -61,4 -40,2 -73,4
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj -21 -14 -30
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -693,5 -329,8 -590
EBITA Adj -24 -18 -36
EBITA Adj margin (%) -801,1 -439,5 -718
EBIT Adj -24 -18 -36
EBIT Adj margin (%) -801,1 -439,5 -718
Pretax profit Adj -24 -18 -36
Net profit Adj -24 -18 -36
Net profit to shareholders Adj -24 -18 -36
Net Adj margin (%) -812,9 -439,5 -724
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA -21 -14 -30
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -21 -14 -30
Change in WC -4 2 0
Operating cash flow -26 -11 -30
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -7 -9 -8
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow -33 -20 -38
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 57 0
Other non cash items 2 0 -4
Decrease in net IB debt -25 37 -42
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 38 44 48
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 3 2 3
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 41 46 51
Inventories 0 1 1
Receivables 2 3 3
Other current assets 1 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 17 54 12
Total assets 61 103 68
Shareholders equity 52 91 55
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 52 91 55
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 1 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 1 1
Other current liabilities 8 12 12
Total liabilities and equity 97 81 61
Net IB debt -17 -54 -12
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -17 -54 -12
Capital invested 43 46 52
Working capital 3 0 0
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 154 301 301
Net IB debt Adj -17 -54 -12
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 137 246 288
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 4,2 5 5,9
Capital invested turnover (%) 7,6 9,2 10,2
Capital employed turnover (%) 4,7 5,7 6,9
Inventories / sales (%) 14,2 12,4 12,7
Customer advances / sales (%) 51 25 45,5
Payables / sales (%) 16,9 10 18,2
Working capital / sales (%) 14,1 36,8 8,2
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -32,3 -59,7 -22,8
Net debt / market cap (%) -9,3 -18 -4,1
Equity ratio (%) 85,6 87,9 80,7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -32,3 -59,7 -22,8
Current ratio (%) 256,1 460,5 124,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) -6530 0 -9833,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 81,3 401,1 42,2
Interest cover (%) -7543,8 N/A -11966,7
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 18 24 24
Fully diluted shares Adj 18 24 24
EPS -1,32 -0,76 -1,54
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -1,32 -0,76 -1,54
BVPS 2,84 3,85 2,32
BVPS Adj 0,77 2 0,28
Net IB debt / share -0,9 -2,3 -0,5
Share price 9,88 12,75 12,75
Market cap. (m) 181 301 301
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E -6,3 -16,7 -8,3
EV/sales 45,98 60,08 57,62
EV/EBITDA -6,6 -18,2 -9,8
EV/EBITA -5,7 -13,7 -8
EV/EBIT -5,7 -13,7 -8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -21,3 -6,6 -12,7
P/BVPS 2,96 3,31 5,51
P/BVPS Adj 10,86 6,36 45,7
P/E Adj -6,3 -16,7 -8,3
EV/EBITDA Adj -6,6 -18,2 -9,8
EV/EBITA Adj -5,7 -13,7 -8
EV/EBIT Adj -5,7 -13,7 -8
EV/cap. employed 2,6 2,7 5,3
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 245,6 207,3 166
Capex / depreciation 228,1 188,9 129,7
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

Equity research

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Media

Biovica - Interview with CEO Anders Rylander
Biovica - Company presentation with CEO Anders Rylander

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Main shareholders - Biovica

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Anders Rylander 16.7 % 29.1 % 28 Jun 2019
Gunnar Rylander 6.4 % 8.8 % 30 Sep 2019
Kristina Gronowitz 1.7 % 3.2 % 30 Sep 2019
Coeli 4.4 % 2.7 % 30 Sep 2019
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 3.6 % 2.3 % 30 Sep 2019
Avanza Pension 3.2 % 2.0 % 30 Sep 2019
LYM Consulting AB 2.1 % 1.3 % 30 Sep 2019
Henrik Osvald 1.8 % 1.1 % 29 Aug 2019
Lars Holmqvist 1.7 % 1.1 % 28 Jun 2019
Eccenovo AB 1.3 % 0.8 % 30 Sep 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Biovica

Name Quantity Code Date
Wing-Shing Cheng + 1 200 BUY 13 May 2019
Cecilia Driving + 1 000 BUY 10 May 2019
Cecilia Driving + 1 000 BUY 10 May 2019
Adam Germunder + 1 000 BUY 9 May 2019
Adam Germunder + 1 000 BUY 9 May 2019
Jesper Söderqvist + 5 500 BUY 8 May 2019
Anders Rylander + 8 000 BUY 8 May 2019
Karin Mattsson + 20 000 BUY 14 Dec 2018
Arinvest AB + 6 034 BUY 14 Dec 2018
Adam Germunder + 20 000 BUY 14 Dec 2018

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