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Biovica

Biovica

Rapid and effective evaluation of cancer treatments

Biovica is a biotechnology company whose patented technology platform, DiviTum, measures the cell growth rate of patients with solid cancer tumours. The test is designed to provide a measure of how fast cancer grows, as well as whether targeted cancer treatment is effective. Biovica has initially chosen to focus on evaluating the treatment effect on metastatic breast cancer. The company is in an early commercial phase and currently has sales to the research market. Commercial launch in 2021 is estimated for Europe and the United States.

We believe there are good opportunities for Biovica to receive reimbursement for the company's product DiviTum in a number of markets. DiviTum's advantage over existing methods is that only a blood sample is required, and the technology is expected to enable an assessment of treatment effect already after 2-4 weeks, which can be compared to the average time for most of today's methods in about 2-4 months.

We note a number of risks factors for Biovica, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, there is a risk that Divitum will not receive reimbursement on key markets in Europe and the United States and that today's standardized methods could be considered better.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 4 5 36
Sales growth (%) 37,4 22 612,5
EBITDA -14 -30 2
EBITDA margin (%) -329,8 -590 4,8
EBIT adj -18 -36 -5
EBIT adj margin (%) -439,5 -718 -14,9
Pretax profit -18 -36 -5
EPS rep -0,76 -1,54 -0,22
EPS growth (%) 42,2 -100,9 85,4
EPS adj -0,76 -1,54 -0,22
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -23,1 -12 207,7
EV/EBIT adj (x) -17,3 -9,9 -66,6
P/E (x) -20,3 -10,1 -69,2
P/E adj (x) -20,3 -10,1 -69,2
EV/sales (x) 76,2 70,8 9,9
FCF yield (%) -5,4 -10,4 -2,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 4 0,4 -7,9
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 4 5 36
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 4 5 36
Other operating items -18 -35 -34
EBITDA -14 -30 2
Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles -5 -6 -7
EBITA -18 -36 -5
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -18 -36 -5
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -18 -36 -5
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -18 -36 -5
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -18 -36 -5
EPS -0,76 -1,54 -0,22
EPS Adj -0,76 -1,54 -0,22
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) -329,8 -590 4,8
EBITA margin (%) -439,5 -718 -14,9
EBIT margin (%) -439,5 -718 -14,9
Pretax margin (%) -439,5 -724 -14,9
Net margin (%) -439,5 -724 -14,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 37,4 22 612,5
EBITDA growth (%) 34,7 -118,2 105,8
EBIT growth (%) 24,6 -99,2 85,2
Net profit growth (%) 25,7 -100,9 85,4
EPS growth (%) 42,2 -100,9 85,4
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -25,2 -49,8 -10,2
ROE Adj (%) -25,2 -49,8 -10,2
ROCE (%) -25,2 -49,4 -10,2
ROCE Adj(%) -25,2 -49,4 -10,2
ROIC (%) -40,2 -73,4 -10,8
ROIC Adj (%) -40,2 -73,4 -10,8
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj -14 -30 2
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -329,8 -590 4,8
EBITA Adj -18 -36 -5
EBITA Adj margin (%) -439,5 -718 -14,9
EBIT Adj -18 -36 -5
EBIT Adj margin (%) -439,5 -718 -14,9
Pretax profit Adj -18 -36 -5
Net profit Adj -18 -36 -5
Net profit to shareholders Adj -18 -36 -5
Net Adj margin (%) -439,5 -724 -14,9
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA -14 -30 2
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -14 -30 2
Change in WC 2 0 -3
Operating cash flow -11 -30 -1
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -9 -8 -9
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow -20 -38 -10
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 57 0 0
Other non cash items 0 -4 10
Decrease in net IB debt 37 -42 1
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 44 48 40
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 2 3 3
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 46 51 43
Inventories 1 1 5
Receivables 3 3 23
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 54 12 13
Total assets 103 68 85
Shareholders equity 91 55 49
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 91 55 49
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 1
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 1 1 7
Other current liabilities 12 12 27
Total liabilities and equity 81 61 103
Net IB debt -54 -12 -13
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -54 -12 -13
Capital invested 46 52 46
Working capital 0 0 3
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 367 367 367
Net IB debt Adj -54 -12 -13
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 312 354 353
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 5 5,9 46,7
Capital invested turnover (%) 9,2 10,2 72,6
Capital employed turnover (%) 5,7 6,9 68,6
Inventories / sales (%) 12,4 12,7 8
Customer advances / sales (%) 25 45,5 28,5
Payables / sales (%) 10 18,2 11,4
Working capital / sales (%) 36,8 8,2 5,1
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -59,7 -22,8 -27,2
Net debt / market cap (%) -20,9 -3,4 -3,7
Equity ratio (%) 87,9 80,7 58,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -59,7 -22,8 -27,2
Current ratio (%) 460,5 124,3 119,9
EBITDA / net interest (%) 0 -9833,6 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 401,1 42,2 -788,7
Interest cover (%) N/A -11966,7 N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 24 24 24
Fully diluted shares Adj 24 24 24
EPS -0,76 -1,54 -0,22
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -0,76 -1,54 -0,22
BVPS 3,85 2,32 2,09
BVPS Adj 2 0,28 0,39
Net IB debt / share -2,3 -0,5 -0,6
Share price 11,03 15,55 15,55
Market cap. (m) 260 367 367
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -20,3 -10,1 -69,2
EV/sales 76,18 70,82 9,91
EV/EBITDA -23,1 -12 207,7
EV/EBITA -17,3 -9,9 -66,6
EV/EBIT -17,3 -9,9 -66,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -5,4 -10,4 -2,8
P/BVPS 4,04 6,72 7,44
P/BVPS Adj 7,76 55,73 39,51
P/E Adj -20,3 -10,1 -69,2
EV/EBITDA Adj -23,1 -12 207,7
EV/EBITA Adj -17,3 -9,9 -66,6
EV/EBIT Adj -17,3 -9,9 -66,6
EV/cap. employed 3,4 6,5 7,2
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 207,3 166 26,1
Capex / depreciation 188,9 129,7 132,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

Equity research

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Media

Biovica - Interview with CEO Anders Rylander
Biovica - Company presentation with CEO Anders Rylander

Main shareholders - Biovica

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Anders Rylander 16.7 % 29.1 % 28 Jun 2019
Gunnar Rylander 6.4 % 8.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Kristina Gronowitz 1.7 % 3.2 % 31 Dec 2019
Coeli 4.9 % 3.0 % 31 Dec 2019
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 3.5 % 2.2 % 31 Dec 2019
Avanza Pension 3.4 % 2.1 % 31 Dec 2019
LYM Consulting AB 2.1 % 1.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Henrik Osvald 1.8 % 1.1 % 29 Aug 2019
Lars Holmqvist 1.7 % 1.1 % 28 Jun 2019
Eccenovo AB 1.3 % 0.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Biovica

Name Quantity Code Date
Adam Germunder + 20 000 BUY 31 Oct 2019
Wing-Shing Cheng + 20 000 BUY 31 Oct 2019
Wing-Shing Cheng + 1 200 BUY 13 May 2019
Cecilia Driving + 1 000 BUY 10 May 2019
Adam Germunder + 1 000 BUY 9 May 2019
Jesper Söderqvist + 5 500 BUY 8 May 2019
Anders Rylander + 8 000 BUY 8 May 2019
Arinvest AB + 6 034 BUY 14 Dec 2018
Adam Germunder + 20 000 BUY 14 Dec 2018
Cecilia Driving + 20 000 BUY 14 Dec 2018

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