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MedicaNatumin

MedicaNatumin

Innovative self-care company

MedicaNatumin develops, manufactures and markets health and beauty products based on innovative ingredients and research. The company’s patented platforms were developed by its own research group in collaboration with Karolinska Institute and Sahlgrenska Academy. Its leading brands of food supplements, medical devices, and dermatological and cosmetic products are widely sold in the Nordic market, and to consumers around the world. Its sales channels are specialty retail, department stores, pharmacies and e-commerce. Outside the Nordics, MedicaNatumin uses distributors. The group targets SEK 200m in sales for 2020.

We believe that MedicaNatumin will benefit from the solid underlying market growth on the OTC market and develop products in several different indications. By investing more in its commercial infrastructure and continuing to build clinical evidence, we see opportunities for MedicaNatumin to continue to deliver high sales growth and launch Jabushe and other products in new markets.

We note a number of risk factors for MedicaNatumin, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. From a short-term perspective, there is a risk of a destocking effect in China related to large Jabushe orders.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 149 209 264
Sales growth (%) -18,1 40,9 26,2
EBITDA 12 12 31
EBITDA margin (%) 8 5,6 11,9
EBIT adj 2 2 18
EBIT adj margin (%) 1,4 0,8 6,7
Pretax profit 1 -3 16
EPS rep 0 -0,01 0,03
EPS growth (%) -98,1 -695,9 501,5
EPS adj 0 0 0,03
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 19,1 16,7 6,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 112,9 122,1 11,5
P/E (x) 385,2 -44,8 11,1
P/E adj (x) 385,2 -286,2 11,1
EV/sales (x) 1,5 0,9 0,8
FCF yield (%) -0,1 -2,8 -4,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 2 4,8 2
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 149 209 264
COGS -55 -108 -120
Gross profit 94 101 145
Other operating items -82 -90 -113
EBITDA 12 12 31
Depreciation on tangibles -2 -1 -1
Depreciation on intangibles -3 -6 -6
EBITA 2 -1 18
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 2 -1 18
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -1 -2 -2
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 1 -3 16
Tax -1 0 -3
Net profit 1 -3 13
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 1 -3 13
EPS 0 -0,01 0,03
EPS Adj 0 0 0,03
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 -2,7 0
Tax rate (%) -57,9 -5,6 -20,6
Gross margin (%) 63,1 48,4 54,7
EBITDA margin (%) 8 5,6 11,9
EBITA margin (%) 1,4 -0,5 6,7
EBIT margin (%) 1,4 -0,5 6,7
Pretax margin (%) 0,8 -1,6 6
Net margin (%) 0,4 -1,5 4,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) -18,1 40,9 26,2
EBITDA growth (%) -72,1 -0,6 166,9
EBIT growth (%) -94,2 -151,7 1810,5
Net profit growth (%) -98,1 -696,1 501,5
EPS growth (%) -98,1 -695,9 501,5
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 0,5 -2,8 11
ROE Adj (%) 0,5 -0,4 11
ROCE (%) 1,4 -0,6 9,3
ROCE Adj(%) 1,4 0,9 9,3
ROIC (%) 0,7 -0,6 8,1
ROIC Adj (%) 0,7 1 8,1
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 12 14 31
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 8 6,9 11,9
EBITA Adj 2 2 18
EBITA Adj margin (%) 1,4 0,8 6,7
EBIT Adj 2 2 18
EBIT Adj margin (%) 1,4 0,8 6,7
Pretax profit Adj 1 -1 16
Net profit Adj 1 0 13
Net profit to shareholders Adj 1 0 13
Net Adj margin (%) 0,4 -0,2 4,8
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 12 12 31
Net financial items -1 -2 -2
Paid tax -1 0 -3
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 10 10 26
Change in WC -8 7 -26
Operating cash flow 3 17 0
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 -1 -3
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -2 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -1 -20 -4
Free cash flow 0 -4 -7
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -14 -27 3
Decrease in net IB debt -16 -32 -8
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 74 87 80
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 4 4 5
Other fixed assets 0 1 1
Fixed assets 94 112 106
Inventories 37 42 58
Receivables 28 38 48
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 13 24 7
Total assets 171 216 219
Shareholders equity 115 109 121
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 115 109 121
Long-term debt 17 53 43
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 4 12 12
Accounts payable 20 27 27
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 171 216 219
Net IB debt 24 56 64
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 24 56 64
Capital invested 138 165 185
Working capital 45 53 79
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 203 141 141
Net IB debt Adj 24 56 64
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 227 197 204
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 88,4 108,2 121,7
Capital invested turnover (%) 114,7 138,2 151,2
Capital employed turnover (%) 102,7 123,2 138,9
Inventories / sales (%) 24,1 18,8 18,9
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 15,8 11,2 10,2
Working capital / sales (%) 27,1 23,2 24,8
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 20,7 51,8 52,7
Net debt / market cap (%) 9,5 40 45,4
Equity ratio (%) 67 50,2 55,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 20,7 51,8 52,7
Current ratio (%) 285,8 247,3 267,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) 1565,2 515 1678,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 200,2 476,2 202,8
Interest cover (%) 265 -45,3 946,9
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 376 376 376
Fully diluted shares Adj 376 376 376
EPS 0 -0,01 0,03
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0 0 0,03
BVPS 0,31 0,29 0,32
BVPS Adj 0,11 0,06 0,11
Net IB debt / share 0,1 0,1 0,2
Share price 0,66 0,37 0,37
Market cap. (m) 250 141 141
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 385,2 -44,8 11,1
EV/sales 1,53 0,94 0,77
EV/EBITDA 19,1 16,7 6,5
EV/EBITA 112,9 -189,5 11,5
EV/EBIT 112,9 -189,5 11,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -0,1 -2,8 -4,7
P/BVPS 1,77 1,3 1,16
P/BVPS Adj 4,97 6,4 3,43
P/E Adj 385,2 -286,2 11,1
EV/EBITDA Adj 19,1 13,6 6,5
EV/EBITA Adj 112,9 122,1 11,5
EV/EBIT Adj 112,9 122,1 11,5
EV/cap. employed 1,5 1 1,1
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 1,5 0,5 1
Capex / depreciation 45,9 16,2 34,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 5,9 26,5 51,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 50,3 16,2 25,4
N/A N/A N/A

Equity research

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Media

MedicaNatumin - Company presentation with CEO Ulrika Albers (in English)
MedicaNatumin - Interview with CEO Ulrika Albers (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - MedicaNatumin

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
N.P.H I Habo AB 20.1 % 20.1 % 30 Sep 2020
Avanza Pension 11.0 % 11.0 % 30 Sep 2020
Swedbank Försäkring 9.7 % 9.7 % 30 Sep 2020
Familjen Jakob & Bengt Johansson 8.4 % 8.4 % 30 Sep 2018
TJ Gruppen AB 5.0 % 5.0 % 30 Sep 2020
Jool Invest AB 4.6 % 4.6 % 30 Sep 2020
Jesper Pettersson 2.5 % 2.5 % 30 Sep 2020
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.0 % 2.0 % 30 Sep 2020
Jörgen Wehmonen 1.8 % 1.8 % 30 Sep 2020
Lars Johansson 1.8 % 1.8 % 30 Sep 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - MedicaNatumin

Name Quantity Code Date
Lars Kärnerud + 275 000 BUY 11 Mar 2020
Lars Kärnerud + 360 546 BUY 5 Mar 2020
Ulrika Albers + 87 500 BUY 2 Mar 2020
Ulrika Albers + 12 500 BUY 2 Mar 2020
Torbjörn Åke Ingemar Björstrand + 300 000 BUY 28 Feb 2020
Lars Kärnerud +1 000 000 BUY 15 Mar 2019
Ulrika Albers + 44 023 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Ulrika Albers + 45 977 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Ulrika Albers + 10 000 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Erin Gareth Tudor Worrall +1 000 000 SUBS 22 Jan 2019

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