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MedicaNatumin

MedicaNatumin

Innovative self-care company

MedicaNatumin develops, manufactures and markets health and beauty products based on innovative ingredients and research. The company’s patented platforms were developed by its own research group in collaboration with Karolinska Institute and Sahlgrenska Academy. Its leading brands of food supplements, medical devices, and dermatological and cosmetic products are widely sold in the Nordic market, and to consumers around the world. Its sales channels are specialty retail, department stores, pharmacies and e-commerce. Outside the Nordics, MedicaNatumin uses distributors. The group targets SEK 200m in sales for 2020.

We believe that MedicaNatumin will benefit from the solid underlying market growth on the OTC market and develop products in several different indications. By investing more in its commercial infrastructure and continuing to build clinical evidence, we see opportunities for MedicaNatumin to continue to deliver high sales growth and launch Jabushe and other products in new markets.

We note a number of risk factors for MedicaNatumin, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. From a short-term perspective, there is a risk of a destocking effect in China related to large Jabushe orders.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 186 190 202
Sales growth (%) 2,3 2,5 6,1
EBITDA 30 33 35
EBITDA margin (%) 16,2 17,5 17,4
EBIT adj 21 23 25
EBIT adj margin (%) 11,1 12,2 12,4
Pretax profit 20 23 25
EPS rep 0,04 0,05 0,05
EPS growth (%) -42,9 12,2 8,8
EPS adj 0,04 0,05 0,05
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8,2 6,6 5,7
EV/EBIT adj (x) 12 9,5 8
P/E (x) 16,2 14,4 13,2
P/E adj (x) 16,2 14,4 13,2
EV/sales (x) 1,3 1,2 1
FCF yield (%) 2,3 10,3 8,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,2 -1 -1,6
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 186 190 202
COGS -63 -69 -74
Gross profit 123 121 128
Other operating items -93 -88 -93
EBITDA 30 33 35
Depreciation on tangibles -9 -10 -10
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 21 23 25
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 21 23 25
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 -1 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 20 23 25
Tax -4 -5 -5
Net profit 16 18 19
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 16 18 19
EPS 0,04 0,05 0,05
EPS Adj 0,04 0,05 0,05
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 66 63,5 63,4
EBITDA margin (%) 16,2 17,5 17,4
EBITA margin (%) 11,1 12,2 12,4
EBIT margin (%) 11,1 12,2 12,4
Pretax margin (%) 10,9 11,9 12,2
Net margin (%) 8,5 9,3 9,5
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 2,3 2,5 6,1
EBITDA growth (%) -29,4 10,9 5,2
EBIT growth (%) -40,5 12,8 7,5
Net profit growth (%) -42,4 12,2 8,8
EPS growth (%) -42,9 12,2 8,8
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 13 12,7 12,2
ROE Adj (%) 13 12,7 12,2
ROCE (%) 15,5 15,6 15,2
ROCE Adj(%) 15,5 15,6 15,2
ROIC (%) 14,1 15,4 17,3
ROIC Adj (%) 14,1 15,4 17,3
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 30 33 35
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 16,2 17,5 17,4
EBITA Adj 21 23 25
EBITA Adj margin (%) 11,1 12,2 12,4
EBIT Adj 21 23 25
EBIT Adj margin (%) 11,1 12,2 12,4
Pretax profit Adj 20 23 25
Net profit Adj 16 18 19
Net profit to shareholders Adj 16 18 19
Net Adj margin (%) 8,5 9,3 9,5
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 30 33 35
Net financial items 0 -1 0
Paid tax -4 -5 -5
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 25 28 29
Change in WC -5 4 -1
Operating cash flow 11 31 28
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -5 -5 -6
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 6 26 22
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -5 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 1 26 22
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 75 72 70
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 21 19 17
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 96 91 87
Inventories 42 36 38
Receivables 34 30 32
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 20 41 63
Total assets 192 198 220
Shareholders equity 130 147 167
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 130 147 167
Long-term debt 13 8 8
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 50 43 45
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 140 165 192
Net IB debt -7 -33 -55
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -7 -33 -55
Capital invested 123 114 111
Working capital 27 23 24
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 255 255 255
Net IB debt Adj -7 -33 -55
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 247 221 199
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 103,8 97,4 96,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 162,1 160,8 179,1
Capital employed turnover (%) 139 127,7 122,3
Inventories / sales (%) 20,6 20,5 18,5
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 24,4 24,3 21,9
Working capital / sales (%) 13,1 13,1 11,7
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -5,4 -22,6 -33,1
Net debt / market cap (%) -2,6 -13,1 -21,7
Equity ratio (%) 67,5 74,4 75,7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -5,4 -22,6 -33,1
Current ratio (%) 193,6 249,7 292,2
EBITDA / net interest (%) 6467,5 5132,3 8783,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -23,5 -100,3 -157,6
Interest cover (%) 4447,6 3591,4 6277,1
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 375 375 375
Fully diluted shares Adj 375 375 375
EPS 0,04 0,05 0,05
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,04 0,05 0,05
BVPS 0,35 0,39 0,44
BVPS Adj 0,15 0,2 0,26
Net IB debt / share 0 -0,1 -0,1
Share price 0,73 0,68 0,68
Market cap. (m) 273 255 255
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 16,2 14,4 13,2
EV/sales 1,33 1,16 0,99
EV/EBITDA 8,2 6,6 5,7
EV/EBITA 12 9,5 8
EV/EBIT 12 9,5 8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 2,3 10,3 8,6
P/BVPS 1,96 1,73 1,53
P/BVPS Adj 4,62 3,38 2,64
P/E Adj 16,2 14,4 13,2
EV/EBITDA Adj 8,2 6,6 5,7
EV/EBITA Adj 12 9,5 8
EV/EBIT Adj 12 9,5 8
EV/cap. employed 1,7 1,4 1,1
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 2,6 2,6 3
Capex / depreciation 50,8 50 60
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 44,1 53,2 59,6

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Media

MedicaNatumin - Interview with CEO Ulrika Albers (in Swedish)
MedicaNatumin - Company presentation with CEO Ulrika Albers (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - MedicaNatumin

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
N.P.H I Habo AB 19.9 % 19.9 % 31 Dec 2019
Avanza Pension 10.2 % 10.2 % 31 Dec 2019
Swedbank Försäkring 10.1 % 10.1 % 31 Dec 2019
Familjen Jakob & Bengt Johansson 8.4 % 8.4 % 30 Sep 2018
TJ Gruppen AB 5.0 % 5.0 % 31 Dec 2019
Jool Invest AB 4.6 % 4.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Lars Johansson 2.4 % 2.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Jesper Pettersson 2.3 % 2.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Jörgen Wehmonen 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Karl Olov Eriksson 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - MedicaNatumin

Name Quantity Code Date
Lars Kärnerud +1 000 000 BUY 15 Mar 2019
Ulrika Albers + 44 023 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Ulrika Albers + 45 977 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Ulrika Albers + 10 000 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Erin Gareth Tudor Worrall +1 000 000 SUBS 22 Jan 2019
Ulrika Albers + 87 212 BUY 31 Aug 2018
Ulrika Albers + 12 788 BUY 31 Aug 2018
ML i Habo AB + 373 000 BUY 21 Dec 2017
Lars Magnus Kärnerud + 373 000 BUY 21 Dec 2017
Lars Magnus Kärnerud + 373 000 BUY 21 Dec 2017

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