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MedicaNatumin

Innovative self-care company

MedicaNatumin develops, manufactures and markets health and beauty products based on innovative ingredients and research. The company’s patented platforms were developed by its own research group in collaboration with Karolinska Institute and Sahlgrenska Academy. Its leading brands of food supplements, medical devices, and dermatological and cosmetic products are widely sold in the Nordic market, and to consumers around the world. Its sales channels are specialty retail, department stores, pharmacies and e-commerce. Outside the Nordics, MedicaNatumin uses distributors. The group targets SEK 200m in sales for 2020.

We believe that MedicaNatumin will benefit from the solid underlying market growth on the OTC market and develop products in several different indications. By investing more in its commercial infrastructure and continuing to build clinical evidence, we see opportunities for MedicaNatumin to continue to deliver high sales growth and launch Jabushe and other products in new markets.

We note a number of risk factors for MedicaNatumin, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. From a short-term perspective, there is a risk of a destocking effect in China related to large Jabushe orders.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 182 187 176
Sales growth (%) 41,9 3,1 -5,8
EBITDA 43 39 33
EBITDA margin (%) 23,4 20,8 18,7
EBIT adj 35 30 23
EBIT adj margin (%) 19,1 16 13
Pretax profit 34 29 23
EPS rep 0,07 0,06 0,05
EPS growth (%) 557,4 -15,9 -23,2
EPS adj 0,07 0,06 0,05
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 6,3 6,1 6,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 7,7 8 9,3
P/E (x) 10 11,8 15,4
P/E adj (x) 10 11,8 15,4
EV/sales (x) 1,5 1,3 1,2
FCF yield (%) 9,8 9,7 9,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,2 -0,8 -1,7
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 182 187 176
COGS -62 -65 -64
Gross profit 119 122 112
Other operating items -77 -83 -79
EBITDA 43 39 33
Depreciation on tangibles -8 -9 -10
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 35 30 23
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 35 30 23
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 34 29 23
Tax -7 -6 -5
Net profit 27 23 18
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 27 23 18
EPS 0,07 0,06 0,05
EPS Adj 0,07 0,06 0,05
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -20,5 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 65,6 65,4 63,7
EBITDA margin (%) 23,4 20,8 18,7
EBITA margin (%) 19,1 16 13
EBIT margin (%) 19,1 16 13
Pretax margin (%) 18,9 15,7 12,8
Net margin (%) 15,1 12,3 10
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 41,9 3,1 -5,8
EBITDA growth (%) 244,6 -8,6 -15,2
EBIT growth (%) 528,1 -14 -23,1
Net profit growth (%) 557,5 -15,9 -23,2
EPS growth (%) 557,4 -15,9 -23,2
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 27,6 18,5 12,2
ROE Adj (%) 27,6 18,5 12,2
ROCE (%) 30,3 22,4 15,5
ROCE Adj(%) 30,3 22,4 15,5
ROIC (%) 26,2 22,2 18
ROIC Adj (%) 26,2 22,2 18
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 43 39 33
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 23,4 20,8 18,7
EBITA Adj 35 30 23
EBITA Adj margin (%) 19,1 16 13
EBIT Adj 35 30 23
EBIT Adj margin (%) 19,1 16 13
Pretax profit Adj 34 29 23
Net profit Adj 27 23 18
Net profit to shareholders Adj 27 23 18
Net Adj margin (%) 15,1 12,3 10
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 43 39 33
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax -7 -6 -5
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 35 32 28
Change in WC -8 -2 2
Operating cash flow 32 30 30
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -5 -4 -5
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 27 26 25
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -2 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 25 26 25
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 76 74 71
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 8 6 3
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 85 80 75
Inventories 35 37 34
Receivables 28 30 28
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 18 39 59
Total assets 165 186 195
Shareholders equity 113 136 154
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 113 136 154
Long-term debt 12 7 2
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 41 44 40
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 163 140 165
Net IB debt -6 -33 -58
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -6 -33 -58
Capital invested 106 103 96
Working capital 22 24 21
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 274 272 272
Net IB debt Adj -6 -33 -58
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 268 239 214
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 118,8 106,5 92,6
Capital invested turnover (%) 172,6 178,7 177,3
Capital employed turnover (%) 158,2 140,4 118,6
Inventories / sales (%) 17,1 19,1 20
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 20,9 22,7 23,7
Working capital / sales (%) 9,8 12,2 12,7
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -5,7 -24,1 -37,6
Net debt / market cap (%) -2,7 -12 -21,2
Equity ratio (%) 68,3 72,9 78,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -5,7 -24,1 -37,6
Current ratio (%) 196,9 242,3 302,2
EBITDA / net interest (%) 13046,9 9976,7 10080,4
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -15 -84,1 -174,9
Interest cover (%) 10655,5 7667 7023,7
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 372 372 372
Fully diluted shares Adj 372 372 372
EPS 0,07 0,06 0,05
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,07 0,06 0,05
BVPS 0,3 0,36 0,41
BVPS Adj 0,1 0,17 0,22
Net IB debt / share 0 -0,1 -0,2
Share price 0,63 0,73 0,73
Market cap. (m) 236 272 272
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 10 11,8 15,4
EV/sales 1,47 1,28 1,21
EV/EBITDA 6,3 6,1 6,5
EV/EBITA 7,7 8 9,3
EV/EBIT 7,7 8 9,3
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 9,8 9,7 9,2
P/BVPS 2,43 2 1,77
P/BVPS Adj 7,48 4,37 3,3
P/E Adj 10 11,8 15,4
EV/EBITDA Adj 6,3 6,1 6,5
EV/EBITA Adj 7,7 8 9,3
EV/EBIT Adj 7,7 8 9,3
EV/cap. employed 2,2 1,7 1,4
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2,7 2,1 2,8
Capex / depreciation 61,9 44,4 50
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 94,1 155,6 304,5

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Main shareholders

MedicaNatumin

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
N.P.H I Habo AB 20.0 % 20.0 % 31 Mar 2019
Swedbank Försäkring 11.0 % 11.0 % 31 Mar 2019
Avanza Pension 9.9 % 9.9 % 31 Mar 2019
Familjen Jakob & Bengt Johansson 8.4 % 8.4 % 30 Sep 2018
TJ Gruppen AB 4.7 % 4.7 % 31 Mar 2019
Jool Invest AB 4.7 % 4.7 % 31 Mar 2019
Lars Johansson 2.3 % 2.3 % 31 Mar 2019
Jesper Pettersson 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Mar 2019
Jörgen Wehmonen 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Mar 2019
North Castle AB 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Mar 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

MedicaNatumin

Name Quantity Code Date
Lars Kärnerud +1 000 000 BUY 15 Mar 2019
Ulrika Albers + 44 023 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Ulrika Albers + 45 977 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Ulrika Albers + 10 000 BUY 25 Feb 2019
Erin Gareth Tudor Worrall +1 000 000 TECKN 22 Jan 2019
Ulrika Albers + 87 212 BUY 31 Aug 2018
Ulrika Albers + 12 788 BUY 31 Aug 2018
ML i Habo AB + 373 000 BUY 21 Dec 2017
Lars Magnus Kärnerud + 373 000 BUY 21 Dec 2017
Lars Magnus Kärnerud + 373 000 BUY 21 Dec 2017

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