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Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company managing all stages of the value chain, from project development to the sale of green electricity generated by its own onshore wind turbines. Arise manages ~770 MW with 241 MW own and 529 MW external. Its entirely own wind farms consist of 65 wind turbines of 139 MW, and co-owned farms consist of 33 turbines with a total output of 102 MW (50% ownership). Additionally, the company has an extensive project portfolio of 800 MW in Sweden. The shares are listed on Nasdaq OMX Small Cap.

Political ambition of 100% renewable is an obvious driver for realization of Arise’s project portfolio. Lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favorable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 343 460 488
Sales growth (%) 33,7 34 6,2
EBITDA 190 -116 161
EBITDA margin (%) 55,5 -25,2 32,9
EBIT adj 118 81 86
EBIT adj margin (%) 34,5 17,7 17,6
Pretax profit 28 -286 24
EPS rep 0,62 -8,56 0,56
EPS growth (%) 111,4 -1489,2 106,5
EPS adj 0,62 0,01 0,56
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8,1 -12,7 8,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 13 18,1 15,8
P/E (x) 27,6 -2,8 43,3
P/E adj (x) 27,6 1794,5 43,3
EV/sales (x) 4,5 3,2 2,8
FCF yield (%) 3,3 20,1 13,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 5 -5,7 3,4
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 343 460 488
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 343 460 488
Other operating items -153 -576 -328
EBITDA 190 -116 161
Depreciation on tangibles -72 -75 -75
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 118 -191 86
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 118 -191 86
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -90 -96 -62
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 28 -286 24
Tax -7 0 -5
Net profit 21 -287 19
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 21 -287 19
EPS 0,62 -8,56 0,56
EPS Adj 0,62 0,01 0,56
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 -287 0
Tax rate (%) -26,1 0,1 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 55,5 -25,2 32,9
EBITA margin (%) 34,5 -41,5 17,6
EBIT margin (%) 34,5 -41,5 17,6
Pretax margin (%) 8,3 -62,3 4,9
Net margin (%) 6,1 -62,3 3,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 33,7 34 6,2
EBITDA growth (%) 45,8 -160,9 238,7
EBIT growth (%) 220,9 -261,1 145,1
Net profit growth (%) 111,6 -1471 106,5
EPS growth (%) 111,4 -1489,2 106,5
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 2,5 -39,7 3
ROE Adj (%) 2,5 0,1 3
ROCE (%) 6,2 -11,2 5,5
ROCE Adj(%) 6,2 4,8 5,5
ROIC (%) 4,5 -11,4 5
ROIC Adj (%) 4,5 4,9 5
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 190 156 161
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 55,5 34 32,9
EBITA Adj 118 81 86
EBITA Adj margin (%) 34,5 17,7 17,6
EBIT Adj 118 81 86
EBIT Adj margin (%) 34,5 17,7 17,6
Pretax profit Adj 28 -14 24
Net profit Adj 21 0 19
Net profit to shareholders Adj 21 0 19
Net Adj margin (%) 6,1 0,1 3,8
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 190 -116 161
Net financial items -90 -96 -62
Paid tax -7 0 -5
Non-cash items 0 287 0
Cash flow before change in WC 93 75 93
Change in WC -30 96 29
Operating cash flow 26 179 122
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -7 -16 -16
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 19 163 106
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -5 178 0
Decrease in net IB debt 25 298 106
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1330 1327 1268
Other fixed assets 482 38 38
Fixed assets 1813 1364 1306
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 194 96 67
Other current assets 1 1 1
Cash and liquid assets 61 289 395
Total assets 2069 1750 1769
Shareholders equity 824 620 639
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 824 620 639
Long-term debt 677 704 704
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 245 245 245
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 46 46 46
Short-term debt 97 0 0
Accounts payable 63 61 61
Other current liabilities 117 74 74
Total liabilities and equity 2460 2124 2069
Net IB debt 958 660 554
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 958 660 554
Capital invested 1944 1399 1312
Working capital 131 35 6
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 577 810 810
Net IB debt Adj 958 660 554
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1535 1470 1364
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 16,4 24,1 27,8
Capital invested turnover (%) 17,5 27,5 36
Capital employed turnover (%) 18 26,9 30,9
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 9,2 13,5 12,5
Working capital / sales (%) 33,8 18,1 4,2
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) 116,3 106,4 86,6
Net debt / market cap (%) 187,7 81,4 68,3
Equity ratio (%) 39,8 35,4 36,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 116,3 106,4 86,6
Current ratio (%) 92,4 286 343,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) 211,3 -121,3 258,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 503,2 -569,4 344,3
Interest cover (%) 131,3 -199,6 138,7
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 34 33 33
EPS 0,62 -8,56 0,56
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,62 0,01 0,56
BVPS 24,69 18,53 19,08
BVPS Adj 24,69 18,53 19,08
Net IB debt / share 28,7 19,7 16,5
Share price 15,3 24,2 24,2
Market cap. (m) 510 810 810
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 27,6 -2,8 43,3
EV/sales 4,47 3,2 2,79
EV/EBITDA 8,1 -12,7 8,5
EV/EBITA 13 -7,7 15,8
EV/EBIT 13 -7,7 15,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 3,3 20,1 13,1
P/BVPS 0,69 1,31 1,27
P/BVPS Adj 0,69 1,31 1,27
P/E Adj 27,6 1794,5 43,3
EV/EBITDA Adj 8,1 9,4 8,5
EV/EBITA Adj 13 18,1 15,8
EV/EBIT Adj 13 18,1 15,8
EV/cap. employed 0,8 0,9 0,9
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2 3,5 3,3
Capex / depreciation 9,7 21,4 21,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0,5 1,2 1,3
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 5,4 5,6 5,9

Equity research

Read earlier research

Media

Arise - Interview with CEO Daniel Johansson (in Swedish)
Arise - Company presentation with CEO Daniel Johansson (in Swedish)

Main shareholders

Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Jan Barchan 16.3 % 16.3 % 31 Dec 2018
Claesson & Anderzén 12.8 % 12.8 % 17 May 2019
Nordea Liv & Pension 9.3 % 9.3 % 30 Jun 2019
Tredje AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 30 Jun 2019
Johan Claesson 7.0 % 7.0 % 30 Jun 2019
Peter Gyllenhammar 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Ernström & C:o AB 4.5 % 4.5 % 30 Jun 2019
Leif Jansson 3.7 % 3.7 % 30 Jun 2019
Olof Andersson 3.6 % 3.6 % 30 Jun 2019
Svenska Handelsbanken AB for PB 3.6 % 3.6 % 30 Jun 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Per Daniel Johansson - 300 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson + 100 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg + 10 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Joachim Gahm - 2 574 SELL 14 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 1 825 SELL 10 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 5 581 SELL 8 Jan 2019
Linus Hägg + 2 143 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 1 000 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 169 BUY 28 May 2018

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