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Arise

Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company managing all stages of the value chain, from project development to the sale of green electricity generated by its own onshore wind turbines. Arise manages ~770 MW with 241 MW own and 529 MW external. Its entirely own wind farms consist of 65 wind turbines of 139 MW, and co-owned farms consist of 33 turbines with a total output of 102 MW (50% ownership). Additionally, the company has an extensive project portfolio of 800 MW in Sweden. The shares are listed on Nasdaq OMX Small Cap.

Political ambition of 100% renewable is an obvious driver for realization of Arise’s project portfolio. Lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favorable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 666 229 781
Sales growth (%) 94,2 -65,7 241,5
EBITDA -41 76 261
EBITDA margin (%) -6,2 33,3 33,4
EBIT adj 150 -6 178
EBIT adj margin (%) 22,6 -2,8 22,8
Pretax profit -219 -71 140
EPS rep -7,11 -1,64 3,26
EPS growth (%) -1253,8 76,9 298,2
EPS adj 1,46 -1,64 3,26
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -41,4 22 5,8
EV/EBIT adj (x) 11,4 -258,4 8,5
P/E (x) -4,6 -20,1 10,1
P/E adj (x) 22,6 -20,1 10,1
EV/sales (x) 2,6 7,3 1,9
FCF yield (%) 19,9 3,5 15,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -14,6 7,5 1,5
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 666 229 781
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 666 229 781
Other operating items -708 -153 -520
EBITDA -41 76 261
Depreciation on tangibles -76 -79 -78
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA -122 -6 178
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -122 -6 178
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -98 -64 -39
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -219 -71 140
Tax -19 16 -31
Net profit -238 -55 109
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -238 -55 109
EPS -7,11 -1,64 3,26
EPS Adj 1,46 -1,64 3,26
Total extraordinary items after tax -287 0 0
Tax rate (%) 8,4 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) -6,2 33,3 33,4
EBITA margin (%) -18,3 -2,8 22,8
EBIT margin (%) -18,3 -2,8 22,8
Pretax margin (%) -32,9 -30,9 17,9
Net margin (%) -35,7 -24,1 14
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 94,2 -65,7 241,5
EBITDA growth (%) -121,7 283,9 242,8
EBIT growth (%) -202,8 94,7 2849,9
Net profit growth (%) -1238,8 76,9 298,2
EPS growth (%) -1253,8 76,9 298,2
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -31,9 -8,6 16,4
ROE Adj (%) 6,6 -8,6 16,4
ROCE (%) -7 -0,4 12,4
ROCE Adj(%) 8,7 -0,4 12,4
ROIC (%) -8,4 -0,4 11,6
ROIC Adj (%) 10,4 -0,4 11,6
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 231 76 261
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 34,6 33,3 33,4
EBITA Adj 150 -6 178
EBITA Adj margin (%) 22,6 -2,8 22,8
EBIT Adj 150 -6 178
EBIT Adj margin (%) 22,6 -2,8 22,8
Pretax profit Adj 53 -71 140
Net profit Adj 49 -55 109
Net profit to shareholders Adj 49 -55 109
Net Adj margin (%) 7,4 -24,1 14
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA -41 76 261
Net financial items -98 -64 -39
Paid tax -19 16 -31
Non-cash items 287 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 129 28 191
Change in WC 61 31 0
Operating cash flow 235 55 187
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -15 -16 -16
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 220 39 171
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 136 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 352 35 167
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1274 1215 1157
Other fixed assets 38 38 38
Fixed assets 1365 1306 1248
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 80 49 49
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 342 377 194
Total assets 1787 1732 1491
Shareholders equity 667 612 721
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 667 612 721
Long-term debt 650 650 300
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 245 245 245
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 46 46 46
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 126 126 126
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 2124 2069 1787
Net IB debt 606 571 404
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 606 571 404
Capital invested 1319 1229 1171
Working capital -46 -77 -77
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 1105 1105 1105
Net IB debt Adj 606 571 404
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1711 1677 1509
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 34,6 13 48,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 42,3 18 65,1
Capital employed turnover (%) 38,5 14,4 54,3
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 23 55,1 16,1
Working capital / sales (%) -2,3 -26,8 -9,8
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 90,8 93,4 56
Net debt / market cap (%) 80,4 51,7 36,6
Equity ratio (%) 37,3 35,3 48,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 90,8 93,4 56
Current ratio (%) 335,1 337,9 193
EBITDA / net interest (%) -42,3 118,7 675,8
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -1465 751,2 154,9
Interest cover (%) -124,5 -10,1 462,5
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 33 33 33
EPS -7,11 -1,64 3,26
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 1,46 -1,64 3,26
BVPS 19,92 18,27 21,53
BVPS Adj 19,92 18,27 21,53
Net IB debt / share 18,1 17,1 12,1
Share price 22,52 33 33
Market cap. (m) 754 1105 1105
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -4,6 -20,1 10,1
EV/sales 2,57 7,33 1,93
EV/EBITDA -41,4 22 5,8
EV/EBITA -14,1 -258,4 8,5
EV/EBIT -14,1 -258,4 8,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 19,9 3,5 15,5
P/BVPS 1,66 1,81 1,53
P/BVPS Adj 1,66 1,81 1,53
P/E Adj 22,6 -20,1 10,1
EV/EBITDA Adj 7,4 22 5,8
EV/EBITA Adj 11,4 -258,4 8,5
EV/EBIT Adj 11,4 -258,4 8,5
EV/cap. employed 1,1 1,1 1,1
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 2,3 7 2
Capex / depreciation 19,7 20,4 20,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 1,2 1,3 1,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 6 6,5 6,8

Equity research

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Media

Arise - Interview with CFO Linus Hägg (in Swedish)
Arise - Company presentation with CFO Linus Hägg

Main shareholders - Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Claesson & Anderzén 22.1 % 22.1 % 4 Oct 2019
Jan Barchan 10.0 % 10.0 % 16 Jan 2020
Tredje AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Johan Claesson 7.4 % 7.4 % 4 Oct 2019
Peter Gyllenhammar 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Leif Jansson 3.7 % 3.7 % 31 Dec 2019
Svenska Handelsbanken AB for PB 3.6 % 3.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Catella Fonder 2.6 % 2.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Avanza Pension 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
DNB Fonder 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Per Daniel Johansson - 300 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson + 100 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg + 10 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Joachim Gahm - 2 574 SELL 14 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 1 825 SELL 10 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 5 581 SELL 8 Jan 2019
Linus Hägg + 2 143 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 1 000 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 169 BUY 28 May 2018

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