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Arise

Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company managing all stages of the value chain, from project development to the sale of green electricity generated by its own onshore wind turbines. Arise manages ~1,300 MW, of which 139MW is own-production. Additionally, the company has an extensive project portfolio of 850 MW in Sweden and 70MW in Scotland. The shares are listed on Nasdaq OMX Small Cap.

Political ambition of 100% renewable is an obvious driver for realization of Arise’s project portfolio. Lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favorable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 454 183 865
Sales growth (%) 32,4 -59,7 373,4
EBITDA -56 37 302
EBITDA margin (%) -12,3 20,5 35
EBIT adj -132 -2 230
EBIT adj margin (%) -29,1 -0,9 26,6
Pretax profit -263 -88 202
EPS rep -7,91 -2,49 4,71
EPS growth (%) -1378,6 68,5 289,1
EPS adj -7,46 -1,47 4,71
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -28,2 49 5,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) -12 -1166,4 7
P/E (x) -3,8 -15,6 8,2
P/E adj (x) -4 -26,3 8,2
EV/sales (x) 3,5 10 1,9
FCF yield (%) 27,8 0 16,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -10,2 14,3 1,1
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 454 183 865
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 454 183 865
Other operating items -510 -145 -563
EBITDA -56 37 302
Depreciation on tangibles -72 -69 -68
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA -132 -36 230
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -132 -36 230
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -131 -52 -28
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -263 -88 202
Tax -2 5 -44
Net profit -265 -83 158
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -265 -83 158
EPS -7,91 -2,49 4,71
EPS Adj -7,46 -1,47 4,71
Total extraordinary items after tax -15 -34 0
Tax rate (%) 0,8 -5,1 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) -12,3 20,5 35
EBITA margin (%) -29,1 -19,5 26,6
EBIT margin (%) -29,1 -19,5 26,6
Pretax margin (%) -57,9 -48,1 23,4
Net margin (%) -58,4 -45,6 18,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 32,4 -59,7 373,4
EBITDA growth (%) -129,3 166,8 709
EBIT growth (%) -211,9 73,1 747,9
Net profit growth (%) -1361,9 68,5 289,1
EPS growth (%) -1378,6 68,5 289,1
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -34,8 -12,3 21,3
ROE Adj (%) -32,9 -7,3 21,3
ROCE (%) -7,6 -2 12,3
ROCE Adj(%) -7,6 0 12,3
ROIC (%) -8,5 -2,6 14,8
ROIC Adj (%) -8,5 -0,1 14,8
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj -56 71 302
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -12,3 39,1 35
EBITA Adj -132 -2 230
EBITA Adj margin (%) -29,1 -0,9 26,6
EBIT Adj -132 -2 230
EBIT Adj margin (%) -29,1 -0,9 26,6
Pretax profit Adj -263 -54 202
Net profit Adj -250 -49 158
Net profit to shareholders Adj -250 -49 158
Net Adj margin (%) -55,1 -27 18,2
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA -56 37 302
Net financial items -131 -52 -28
Paid tax -2 5 -44
Non-cash items 287 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 98 -10 230
Change in WC 170 38 0
Operating cash flow 268 28 230
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 12 -28 -16
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 280 0 214
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 176 84 0
Decrease in net IB debt 388 36 209
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1227 1187 1135
Other fixed assets 40 18 18
Fixed assets 1322 1260 1208
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 108 53 53
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 365 600 809
Total assets 1795 1913 2070
Shareholders equity 698 660 818
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 698 660 818
Long-term debt 632 361 361
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 245 216 216
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 46 46 46
Short-term debt 3 502 502
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 116 73 73
Total liabilities and equity 1795 1913 2070
Net IB debt 570 534 325
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 570 534 325
Capital invested 1314 1240 1189
Working capital -8 -20 -20
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 1008 1299 1299
Net IB debt Adj 570 534 325
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1578 1834 1624
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 23,5 9,9 43,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 28,9 14,3 71,3
Capital employed turnover (%) 26,1 10,7 46,2
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 0,8 -7,5 -2,3
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 81,7 80,9 39,7
Net debt / market cap (%) 75,6 41,1 25
Equity ratio (%) 38,9 34,5 39,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 81,7 80,9 39,7
Current ratio (%) 397,5 113,6 150,1
EBITDA / net interest (%) -42,7 71,4 1067,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -1017,9 1428,7 107,4
Interest cover (%) -100,8 -64,8 813,6
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 33 33 33
EPS -7,91 -2,49 4,71
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -7,46 -1,47 4,71
BVPS 20,84 19,71 24,41
BVPS Adj 20,84 19,71 24,41
Net IB debt / share 17 15,9 9,7
Share price 22,52 38,8 38,8
Market cap. (m) 754 1299 1299
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -3,8 -15,6 8,2
EV/sales 3,48 10,03 1,88
EV/EBITDA -28,2 49 5,4
EV/EBITA -12 -51,5 7
EV/EBIT -12 -51,5 7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 27,8 0 16,4
P/BVPS 1,44 1,97 1,59
P/BVPS Adj 1,44 1,97 1,59
P/E Adj -4 -26,3 8,2
EV/EBITDA Adj -28,2 25,7 5,4
EV/EBITA Adj -12 -1166,4 7
EV/EBIT Adj -12 -1166,4 7
EV/cap. employed 1 1 0,8
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales -2,6 15,3 1,8
Capex / depreciation -16,7 40,8 23,7
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets -1 2,4 1,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 5,9 5,8 6
N/A N/A N/A

Equity research

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Media

Arise - Interview with CEO Daniel Johansson
Arise - Company presentation with CEO Daniel Johansson & CFO Linus Hägg

Main shareholders - Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Claesson & Anderzén 22.0 % 22.0 % 26 Mar 2020
Axel Johnson Gruppen 10.6 % 10.6 % 6 Oct 2020
Tredje AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 30 Sep 2020
Johan Claesson 6.6 % 6.6 % 26 Mar 2020
Peter Gyllenhammar 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
DNB Fonder 3.7 % 3.7 % 30 Sep 2020
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Oct 2020
Skandia Fonder 1.9 % 1.9 % 31 Oct 2020
Leif Jansson 1.8 % 1.8 % 30 Sep 2020
Cicero Fonder 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Oct 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Johan Damne + 30 000 BUY 4 Sep 2020
Leif Jansson - 615 000 SELL 17 Feb 2020
Linus Hägg - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson - 300 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg + 10 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson + 100 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Joachim Gahm - 2 574 SELL 14 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 1 825 SELL 10 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 5 581 SELL 8 Jan 2019
Linus Hägg + 2 143 BUY 28 May 2018

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