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Arise

Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company managing all stages of the value chain, from project development to the sale of green electricity generated by its own onshore wind turbines. Arise manages ~770 MW with 241 MW own and 529 MW external. Its entirely own wind farms consist of 65 wind turbines of 139 MW, and co-owned farms consist of 33 turbines with a total output of 102 MW (50% ownership). Additionally, the company has an extensive project portfolio of 800 MW in Sweden. The shares are listed on Nasdaq OMX Small Cap.

Political ambition of 100% renewable is an obvious driver for realization of Arise’s project portfolio. Lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favorable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 454 225 781
Sales growth (%) 32,4 -50,5 247,9
EBITDA -56 79 264
EBITDA margin (%) -12,3 35,2 33,8
EBIT adj -132 0 183
EBIT adj margin (%) -29,1 -0,1 23,4
Pretax profit -263 -49 146
EPS rep -7,91 -1,15 3,39
EPS growth (%) -1378,6 85,5 395,5
EPS adj -7,46 -1,15 3,39
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -28,2 18,9 5
EV/EBIT adj (x) -12 -9323,2 7,2
P/E (x) -3,8 -25,3 8,6
P/E adj (x) -4 -25,3 8,6
EV/sales (x) 3,5 6,6 1,7
FCF yield (%) 27,8 5,7 19
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -10,2 6,6 1,3
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 454 225 781
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 454 225 781
Other operating items -510 -146 -517
EBITDA -56 79 264
Depreciation on tangibles -72 -75 -77
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA -132 0 183
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -132 0 183
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -131 -49 -38
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -263 -49 146
Tax -2 11 -32
Net profit -265 -38 113
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -265 -38 113
EPS -7,91 -1,15 3,39
EPS Adj -7,46 -1,15 3,39
Total extraordinary items after tax -15 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,8 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) -12,3 35,2 33,8
EBITA margin (%) -29,1 -0,1 23,4
EBIT margin (%) -29,1 -0,1 23,4
Pretax margin (%) -57,9 -21,9 18,6
Net margin (%) -58,4 -17,1 14,5
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 32,4 -50,5 247,9
EBITDA growth (%) -129,3 241,1 233,8
EBIT growth (%) -211,9 99,9 114702,5
Net profit growth (%) -1361,9 85,5 395,5
EPS growth (%) -1378,6 85,5 395,5
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -34,8 -5,7 15,8
ROE Adj (%) -32,9 -5,7 15,8
ROCE (%) -7,6 0 13,4
ROCE Adj(%) -7,6 0 13,4
ROIC (%) -8,5 0 12
ROIC Adj (%) -8,5 0 12
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj -56 79 264
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -12,3 35,2 33,8
EBITA Adj -132 0 183
EBITA Adj margin (%) -29,1 -0,1 23,4
EBIT Adj -132 0 183
EBIT Adj margin (%) -29,1 -0,1 23,4
Pretax profit Adj -263 -49 146
Net profit Adj -250 -38 113
Net profit to shareholders Adj -250 -38 113
Net Adj margin (%) -55,1 -17,1 14,5
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA -56 79 264
Net financial items -131 -49 -38
Paid tax -2 11 -32
Non-cash items 287 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 98 41 194
Change in WC 23 31 0
Operating cash flow 268 72 201
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 12 -16 -16
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 280 56 185
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 176 0 -7
Decrease in net IB debt 388 52 174
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1227 1168 1107
Other fixed assets 40 40 40
Fixed assets 1322 1263 1202
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 108 77 77
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 365 85 259
Total assets 1795 1425 1538
Shareholders equity 698 660 773
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 698 660 773
Long-term debt 632 300 300
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 245 245 245
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 46 46 46
Short-term debt 3 3 3
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 116 116 116
Total liabilities and equity 1795 1425 1538
Net IB debt 570 518 344
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 570 518 344
Capital invested 1314 1224 1163
Working capital -8 -39 -39
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 1008 971 971
Net IB debt Adj 570 518 344
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1578 1489 1315
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 23,5 13,9 52,7
Capital invested turnover (%) 28,9 17,7 65,4
Capital employed turnover (%) 26,1 15,5 59,2
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 0,8 -10,5 -5
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 81,7 78,6 44,5
Net debt / market cap (%) 75,6 53,4 35,4
Equity ratio (%) 38,9 46,3 50,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 81,7 78,6 44,5
Current ratio (%) 397,5 135,9 282,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) -42,7 161 701,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -1017,9 655,9 130,4
Interest cover (%) -100,8 -0,3 568
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 33 33 33
EPS -7,91 -1,15 3,39
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -7,46 -1,15 3,39
BVPS 20,84 19,69 23,08
BVPS Adj 20,84 19,69 23,08
Net IB debt / share 17 15,5 10,3
Share price 22,52 29 29
Market cap. (m) 754 971 971
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -3,8 -25,3 8,6
EV/sales 3,48 6,63 1,68
EV/EBITDA -28,2 18,9 5
EV/EBITA -12 -9323,2 7,2
EV/EBIT -12 -9323,2 7,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 27,8 5,7 19
P/BVPS 1,44 1,47 1,26
P/BVPS Adj 1,44 1,47 1,26
P/E Adj -4 -25,3 8,6
EV/EBITDA Adj -28,2 18,9 5
EV/EBITA Adj -12 -9323,2 7,2
EV/EBIT Adj -12 -9323,2 7,2
EV/cap. employed 1 1,2 1
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales -2,6 7,1 2
Capex / depreciation -16,7 21,3 20,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets -1 1,4 1,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 5,9 6,4 6,9

Equity research

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Media

Arise - Interview with CEO Daniel Johansson
Arise - Company presentation with CEO Daniel Johansson & CFO Linus Hägg

Main shareholders - Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Claesson & Anderzén 22.0 % 22.0 % 26 Mar 2020
Jan Barchan 9.9 % 9.9 % 31 Jan 2020
Tredje AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Johan Claesson 6.6 % 6.6 % 26 Mar 2020
Axel Johnson Gruppen 5.2 % 5.2 % 29 Jan 2020
Peter Gyllenhammar 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
DNB Fonder 3.4 % 3.4 % 29 Feb 2020
Leif Jansson 1.8 % 1.8 % 17 Feb 2020
Skandia Fonder 1.8 % 1.8 % 29 Feb 2020
Avanza Pension 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Leif Jansson - 615 000 SELL 17 Feb 2020
Linus Hägg + 10 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson - 300 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson + 100 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Joachim Gahm - 2 574 SELL 14 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 1 825 SELL 10 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 5 581 SELL 8 Jan 2019
Linus Hägg + 1 000 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 169 BUY 28 May 2018

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