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Arise

Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company managing all stages of the value chain, from project development to the sale of green electricity generated by its own onshore wind turbines. Arise manages ~1,300 MW, of which 139MW is own-production. Additionally, the company has an extensive project portfolio of 850 MW in Sweden and 70MW in Scotland. The shares are listed on Nasdaq OMX Small Cap.

Political ambition of 100% renewable is an obvious driver for realization of Arise’s project portfolio. Lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favorable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 454 206 787
Sales growth (%) 32,4 -54,7 282,6
EBITDA -56 74 272
EBITDA margin (%) -12,3 35,9 34,6
EBIT adj -132 -4 192
EBIT adj margin (%) -29,1 -1,9 24,4
Pretax profit -263 -48 154
EPS rep -7,91 -1,17 3,59
EPS growth (%) -1378,6 85,2 407
EPS adj -7,46 -1,17 3,59
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -28,2 26,1 6,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) -12 -489,8 9,1
P/E (x) -3,8 -35,4 11,5
P/E adj (x) -4 -35,4 11,5
EV/sales (x) 3,5 9,4 2,2
FCF yield (%) 27,8 0,5 13,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -10,2 7,4 1,3
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 454 206 787
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 454 206 787
Other operating items -510 -132 -515
EBITDA -56 74 272
Depreciation on tangibles -72 -73 -76
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA -132 -4 192
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -132 -4 192
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -131 -44 -38
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -263 -48 154
Tax -2 9 -34
Net profit -265 -39 120
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -265 -39 120
EPS -7,91 -1,17 3,59
EPS Adj -7,46 -1,17 3,59
Total extraordinary items after tax -15 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,8 -18,8 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) -12,3 35,9 34,6
EBITA margin (%) -29,1 -1,9 24,4
EBIT margin (%) -29,1 -1,9 24,4
Pretax margin (%) -57,9 -23,4 19,6
Net margin (%) -58,4 -19 15,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 32,4 -54,7 282,6
EBITDA growth (%) -129,3 232 268,4
EBIT growth (%) -211,9 97 4965,3
Net profit growth (%) -1361,9 85,2 407
EPS growth (%) -1378,6 85,2 407
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -34,8 -5,6 16
ROE Adj (%) -32,9 -5,6 16
ROCE (%) -7,6 -0,2 13,7
ROCE Adj(%) -7,6 -0,2 13,7
ROIC (%) -8,5 -0,2 12
ROIC Adj (%) -8,5 -0,2 12
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj -56 74 272
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -12,3 35,9 34,6
EBITA Adj -132 -4 192
EBITA Adj margin (%) -29,1 -1,9 24,4
EBIT Adj -132 -4 192
EBIT Adj margin (%) -29,1 -1,9 24,4
Pretax profit Adj -263 -48 154
Net profit Adj -250 -39 120
Net profit to shareholders Adj -250 -39 120
Net Adj margin (%) -55,1 -19 15,3
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA -56 74 272
Net financial items -131 -44 -38
Paid tax -2 9 -34
Non-cash items 287 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 98 39 201
Change in WC 23 -52 0
Operating cash flow 268 21 207
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 12 -14 -16
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 280 7 191
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 176 66 -7
Decrease in net IB debt 388 26 180
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1227 1165 1105
Other fixed assets 40 15 15
Fixed assets 1322 1236 1176
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 108 117 117
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 365 60 240
Total assets 1795 1413 1533
Shareholders equity 698 690 810
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 698 690 810
Long-term debt 632 300 300
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 245 245 245
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 46 46 46
Short-term debt 3 4 4
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 116 73 73
Total liabilities and equity 1795 1413 1533
Net IB debt 570 544 364
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 570 544 364
Capital invested 1314 1280 1220
Working capital -8 44 44
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 1008 1387 1387
Net IB debt Adj 570 544 364
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1578 1931 1751
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 23,5 12,8 53,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 28,9 15,9 63
Capital employed turnover (%) 26,1 14,1 58,2
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 0,8 8,8 5,6
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 81,7 78,9 44,9
Net debt / market cap (%) 75,6 39,3 26,2
Equity ratio (%) 38,9 48,8 52,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 81,7 78,9 44,9
Current ratio (%) 397,5 229,9 464,2
EBITDA / net interest (%) -42,7 166,8 724,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -1017,9 736,3 133,6
Interest cover (%) -100,8 -6,5 596,1
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 33 33 33
EPS -7,91 -1,17 3,59
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -7,46 -1,17 3,59
BVPS 20,84 20,6 24,19
BVPS Adj 20,84 20,6 24,19
Net IB debt / share 17 16,3 10,9
Share price 22,52 41,4 41,4
Market cap. (m) 754 1387 1387
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -3,8 -35,4 11,5
EV/sales 3,48 9,38 2,22
EV/EBITDA -28,2 26,1 6,4
EV/EBITA -12 -489,8 9,1
EV/EBIT -12 -489,8 9,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 27,8 0,5 13,8
P/BVPS 1,44 2,01 1,71
P/BVPS Adj 1,44 2,01 1,71
P/E Adj -4 -35,4 11,5
EV/EBITDA Adj -28,2 26,1 6,4
EV/EBITA Adj -12 -489,8 9,1
EV/EBIT Adj -12 -489,8 9,1
EV/cap. employed 1 1,5 1,2
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales -2,6 6,8 2
Capex / depreciation -16,7 19,1 21
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets -1 1,2 1,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 5,9 6,3 6,9

Equity research

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Media

Arise - Interview with CEO Daniel Johansson
Arise - Company presentation with CEO Daniel Johansson & CFO Linus Hägg

Main shareholders - Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Claesson & Anderzén 22.0 % 22.0 % 26 Mar 2020
Briban Invest AB 10.7 % 10.7 % 28 Apr 2020
Tredje AP-fonden 9.2 % 9.2 % 31 Mar 2020
Johan Claesson 6.6 % 6.6 % 26 Mar 2020
Axel Johnson Gruppen 5.2 % 5.2 % 29 Jan 2020
Peter Gyllenhammar 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
DNB Fonder 3.3 % 3.3 % 31 May 2020
Stiftelsen Riksbankens Jubileumsfond 2.3 % 2.3 % 31 Mar 2020
Leif Jansson 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Mar 2020
Skandia Fonder 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 May 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Leif Jansson - 615 000 SELL 17 Feb 2020
Linus Hägg - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson - 300 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg + 10 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson + 100 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Joachim Gahm - 2 574 SELL 14 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 1 825 SELL 10 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 5 581 SELL 8 Jan 2019
Linus Hägg + 2 143 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 906 BUY 28 May 2018

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