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Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company managing all stages of the value chain, from project development to the sale of green electricity generated by its own onshore wind turbines. Arise manages ~770 MW with 241 MW own and 529 MW external. Its entirely own wind farms consist of 65 wind turbines of 139 MW, and co-owned farms consist of 33 turbines with a total output of 102 MW (50% ownership). Additionally, the company has an extensive project portfolio of 800 MW in Sweden. The shares are listed on Nasdaq OMX Small Cap.

Political ambition of 100% renewable is an obvious driver for realization of Arise’s project portfolio. Lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favorable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 343 341 467
Sales growth (%) 33,7 -0,7 37,2
EBITDA 190 -102 227
EBITDA margin (%) 55,5 -30 48,6
EBIT adj 118 98 157
EBIT adj margin (%) 34,5 28,9 33,6
Pretax profit 28 -265 97
EPS rep 0,62 -7,82 2,31
EPS growth (%) 111,4 -1370,4 129,5
EPS adj 0,62 0,69 2,31
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8,1 -12,9 5,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 13 13,4 7,5
P/E (x) 27,6 -2,6 8,7
P/E adj (x) 27,6 29,2 8,7
EV/sales (x) 4,5 3,9 2,5
FCF yield (%) 3,3 26,8 21,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 5 -6,3 2,2
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 343 341 467
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 343 341 467
Other operating items -153 -443 -240
EBITDA 190 -102 227
Depreciation on tangibles -72 -72 -70
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 118 -174 157
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 118 -174 157
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -90 -91 -60
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 28 -265 97
Tax -7 1 -19
Net profit 21 -264 78
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 21 -264 78
EPS 0,62 -7,82 2,31
EPS Adj 0,62 0,69 2,31
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 -287 0
Tax rate (%) -26,1 -0,5 -20
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 55,5 -30 48,6
EBITA margin (%) 34,5 -51 33,6
EBIT margin (%) 34,5 -51 33,6
Pretax margin (%) 8,3 -77,8 20,8
Net margin (%) 6,1 -77,5 16,7
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 33,7 -0,7 37,2
EBITDA growth (%) 45,8 -153,7 322,1
EBIT growth (%) 220,9 -246,7 190,4
Net profit growth (%) 111,6 -1362,2 129,5
EPS growth (%) 111,4 -1370,4 129,5
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 2,5 -36,1 11,5
ROE Adj (%) 2,5 3,2 11,5
ROCE (%) 6,2 -10 9,7
ROCE Adj(%) 6,2 5,7 9,7
ROIC (%) 4,4 -9,9 8,5
ROIC Adj (%) 4,4 5,6 8,5
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 190 170 227
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 55,5 49,9 48,6
EBITA Adj 118 98 157
EBITA Adj margin (%) 34,5 28,9 33,6
EBIT Adj 118 98 157
EBIT Adj margin (%) 34,5 28,9 33,6
Pretax profit Adj 28 7 97
Net profit Adj 21 23 78
Net profit to shareholders Adj 21 23 78
Net Adj margin (%) 6,1 6,8 16,7
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 190 -102 227
Net financial items -90 -91 -60
Paid tax -7 1 -19
Non-cash items 0 287 0
Cash flow before change in WC 93 95 148
Change in WC -94 68 -27
Operating cash flow 26 199 151
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -7 -17 -6
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 19 182 145
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 6 137 0
Decrease in net IB debt 25 319 145
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1330 1331 1267
Other fixed assets 482 38 38
Fixed assets 1813 1369 1305
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 195 127 154
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 61 336 445
Total assets 2069 1832 1904
Shareholders equity 824 638 716
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 824 638 716
Long-term debt 677 696 659
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 245 245 245
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 46 46 46
Short-term debt 97 34 34
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 180 173 204
Total liabilities and equity 2460 2124 2069
Net IB debt 958 639 494
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 958 639 494
Capital invested 2008 1496 1460
Working capital 195 127 154
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 577 678 678
Net IB debt Adj 958 639 494
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1535 1317 1171
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 16,4 17,5 25
Capital invested turnover (%) 17,2 19,4 31,6
Capital employed turnover (%) 18 19,7 28,6
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 43,1 47,2 30,1
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) 116,3 100,1 69
Net debt / market cap (%) 187,7 95,1 73,5
Equity ratio (%) 39,8 34,8 37,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 116,3 100,1 69
Current ratio (%) 92,4 223,5 251,8
EBITDA / net interest (%) 211,3 -112 380,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 503,2 -625 217,4
Interest cover (%) 131,3 -189,9 260,9
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 34 34 34
EPS 0,62 -7,82 2,31
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,62 0,69 2,31
BVPS 24,69 19,09 21,41
BVPS Adj 24,69 19,09 21,41
Net IB debt / share 28,7 19,1 14,8
Share price 15,3 20,1 20,1
Market cap. (m) 510 672 672
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 27,6 -2,6 8,7
EV/sales 4,47 3,87 2,51
EV/EBITDA 8,1 -12,9 5,2
EV/EBITA 13 -7,6 7,5
EV/EBIT 13 -7,6 7,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 3,3 26,8 21,4
P/BVPS 0,69 1,05 0,94
P/BVPS Adj 0,69 1,05 0,94
P/E Adj 27,6 29,2 8,7
EV/EBITDA Adj 8,1 7,8 5,2
EV/EBITA Adj 13 13,4 7,5
EV/EBIT Adj 13 13,4 7,5
EV/cap. employed 0,8 0,8 0,7
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2 5 1,3
Capex / depreciation 9,7 23,8 8,6
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0,5 1,3 0,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 5,4 5,4 5,5

Equity research

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Main shareholders

Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Jan Barchan 16.3 % 16.3 % 31 Dec 2018
Claesson & Anderzén 12.3 % 12.3 % 9 Oct 2018
Tredje AP-fonden 9.5 % 9.5 % 31 Mar 2019
Nordea Liv & Pension 9.2 % 9.2 % 31 Mar 2019
Carlton Telecom Inc 6.7 % 6.7 % 9 Oct 2018
Peter Gyllenhammar 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Ernström & C:o AB 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Mar 2019
Leif Jansson 3.7 % 3.7 % 31 Mar 2019
Olof Andersson 3.6 % 3.6 % 31 Mar 2019
Svenska Handelsbanken AB for PB 3.6 % 3.6 % 31 Mar 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Per Daniel Johansson - 300 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson + 100 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg + 10 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Joachim Gahm - 2 574 SELL 14 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 1 825 SELL 10 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 5 581 SELL 8 Jan 2019
Linus Hägg + 2 143 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 1 000 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 169 BUY 28 May 2018

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