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Arise

Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company managing all stages of the value chain, from project development to the sale of green electricity generated by its own onshore wind turbines. Arise manages ~770 MW with 241 MW own and 529 MW external. Its entirely own wind farms consist of 65 wind turbines of 139 MW, and co-owned farms consist of 33 turbines with a total output of 102 MW (50% ownership). Additionally, the company has an extensive project portfolio of 800 MW in Sweden. The shares are listed on Nasdaq OMX Small Cap.

Political ambition of 100% renewable is an obvious driver for realization of Arise’s project portfolio. Lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favorable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 343 364 482
Sales growth (%) 33,7 6 32,5
EBITDA 190 -150 160
EBITDA margin (%) 55,5 -41,4 33,2
EBIT adj 118 41 78
EBIT adj margin (%) 34,5 11,2 16,1
Pretax profit 28 -328 13
EPS rep 0,62 -9,53 0,31
EPS growth (%) 111,4 -1646,7 103,3
EPS adj 0,62 -0,96 0,31
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8,1 -10,7 9,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 13 39,7 19,5
P/E (x) 27,6 -2,9 87,9
P/E adj (x) 27,6 -28,7 87,9
EV/sales (x) 4,5 4,4 3,1
FCF yield (%) 3,3 14,4 11,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 5 -4,6 3,7
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 343 364 482
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 343 364 482
Other operating items -153 -514 -322
EBITDA 190 -150 160
Depreciation on tangibles -72 -77 -78
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 118 -231 78
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 118 -231 78
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -90 -97 -64
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 28 -328 13
Tax -7 9 -3
Net profit 21 -319 10
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 21 -319 10
EPS 0,62 -9,53 0,31
EPS Adj 0,62 -0,96 0,31
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 -287 0
Tax rate (%) -26,1 -2,7 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 55,5 -41,4 33,2
EBITA margin (%) 34,5 -63,6 16,1
EBIT margin (%) 34,5 -63,6 16,1
Pretax margin (%) 8,3 -90,2 2,8
Net margin (%) 6,1 -87,8 2,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 33,7 6 32,5
EBITDA growth (%) 45,8 -179 206,3
EBIT growth (%) 220,9 -295,4 133,5
Net profit growth (%) 111,6 -1626,5 103,3
EPS growth (%) 111,4 -1646,7 103,3
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 2,5 -45,2 1,8
ROE Adj (%) 2,5 -4,5 1,8
ROCE (%) 6,2 -13,7 5
ROCE Adj(%) 6,2 2,4 5
ROIC (%) 4,5 -13,5 4,5
ROIC Adj (%) 4,5 2,4 4,5
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 190 122 160
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 55,5 33,4 33,2
EBITA Adj 118 41 78
EBITA Adj margin (%) 34,5 11,2 16,1
EBIT Adj 118 41 78
EBIT Adj margin (%) 34,5 11,2 16,1
Pretax profit Adj 28 -56 13
Net profit Adj 21 -32 10
Net profit to shareholders Adj 21 -32 10
Net Adj margin (%) 6,1 -8,8 2,2
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 190 -150 160
Net financial items -90 -97 -64
Paid tax -7 9 -3
Non-cash items 0 287 0
Cash flow before change in WC 93 49 93
Change in WC -30 96 29
Operating cash flow 26 148 118
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -7 -16 -16
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 19 132 102
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -5 180 0
Decrease in net IB debt 25 266 98
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1330 1273 1214
Other fixed assets 482 38 38
Fixed assets 1813 1364 1306
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 194 96 67
Other current assets 1 1 1
Cash and liquid assets 61 257 354
Total assets 2069 1718 1728
Shareholders equity 824 588 598
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 824 588 598
Long-term debt 677 650 650
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 245 245 245
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 46 46 46
Short-term debt 97 0 0
Accounts payable 63 61 61
Other current liabilities 117 74 74
Total liabilities and equity 2460 2124 2069
Net IB debt 958 692 595
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 958 692 595
Capital invested 1944 1399 1312
Working capital 131 35 6
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 577 921 921
Net IB debt Adj 958 692 595
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1535 1613 1516
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 16,4 19,2 27,9
Capital invested turnover (%) 17,5 21,7 35,5
Capital employed turnover (%) 18 21,5 31,2
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 9,2 17,1 12,7
Working capital / sales (%) 33,8 22,8 4,3
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) 116,3 117,8 99,3
Net debt / market cap (%) 187,7 75,2 64,6
Equity ratio (%) 39,8 34,2 34,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 116,3 117,8 99,3
Current ratio (%) 92,4 261,9 312,9
EBITDA / net interest (%) 211,3 -155,9 249,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 503,2 -460,2 371,6
Interest cover (%) 131,3 -239,6 121
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 34 33 33
EPS 0,62 -9,53 0,31
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,62 -0,96 0,31
BVPS 24,69 17,56 17,87
BVPS Adj 24,69 17,56 17,87
Net IB debt / share 28,7 20,7 17,8
Share price 15,3 27,5 27,5
Market cap. (m) 510 921 921
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 27,6 -2,9 87,9
EV/sales 4,47 4,44 3,15
EV/EBITDA 8,1 -10,7 9,5
EV/EBITA 13 -7 19,5
EV/EBIT 13 -7 19,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 3,3 14,4 11,1
P/BVPS 0,69 1,57 1,54
P/BVPS Adj 0,69 1,57 1,54
P/E Adj 27,6 -28,7 87,9
EV/EBITDA Adj 8,1 13,3 9,5
EV/EBITA Adj 13 39,7 19,5
EV/EBIT Adj 13 39,7 19,5
EV/cap. employed 0,8 1 1
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2 4,4 3,3
Capex / depreciation 9,7 20,8 20,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0,5 1,3 1,3
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 5,4 6 6,5

Equity research

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Media

Arise - Interview with CFO Linus Hägg (in Swedish)
Arise - Company presentation with CFO Linus Hägg

Main shareholders - Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Claesson & Anderzén 22.1 % 22.1 % 4 Oct 2019
Jan Barchan 16.3 % 16.3 % 31 Dec 2018
Nordea Liv & Pension 9.3 % 9.3 % 30 Sep 2019
Tredje AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 30 Sep 2019
Johan Claesson 7.4 % 7.4 % 4 Oct 2019
Peter Gyllenhammar 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Ernström & C:o AB 4.5 % 4.5 % 30 Sep 2019
Leif Jansson 3.7 % 3.7 % 30 Sep 2019
Olof Andersson 3.6 % 3.6 % 30 Sep 2019
Svenska Handelsbanken AB for PB 3.6 % 3.6 % 30 Sep 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Per Daniel Johansson - 300 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Per Daniel Johansson + 100 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg - 125 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Linus Hägg + 10 000 Redemp 15 Mar 2019
Joachim Gahm - 2 574 SELL 14 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 1 825 SELL 10 Jan 2019
Joachim Gahm - 5 581 SELL 8 Jan 2019
Linus Hägg + 2 143 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 1 000 BUY 28 May 2018
Linus Hägg + 169 BUY 28 May 2018

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