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Avensia

Avensia

IT company with innovative power

Avensia is an IT company, operating in the e-commerce niche. The primary focus is to help its customers increase sales within all channels available, i.e. Omni channels. Avensia mainly generates income through consultancy, but in addition the company commercializes products. The main product is the self-developed e-commerce system Storefront, which is a link between the ERP system Microsoft Dynamics and e-commerce platform Episerver. Avensia’s customer base comprises both B2B and B2C customers (approx. 50% each) in the Nordics as well as globally.

The main opportunities for Avensia are 1) increasing investments in e-commerce due to digitalization, which will drive implementation of websites etc, 2) higher than anticipated penetration of the product Storefront, mainly internationally, and 3) continued demand of consultancies for strategical guidance within the e-commerce segment.

We see three risks for Avensia: 1) The high market growth within e-commerce might draw competition, which will put pressure on prices. Hence, both margins and revenue growth could decrease. 2) Avensia generates a big portion of its revenues through a high customer concentration, with the two biggest customers accounting for 27% of 2017 revenues. 3) Lately Avensia has invested significantly in new personnel. There is a risk that these new recruitments may not perform as well as anticipated.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 303 343 408
Sales growth (%) 21,2 13,2 19,1
EBITDA 37 43 53
EBITDA margin (%) 12,4 12,4 12,9
EBIT adj 27 31 41
EBIT adj margin (%) 8,8 8,9 10
Pretax profit 26 30 40
EPS rep 0,51 0,64 0,85
EPS growth (%) 11,6 23,4 33,4
EPS adj 0,51 0,64 0,85
DPS 0,28 0,35 0,45
EV/EBITDA (x) 13,8 8 6,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 19,3 11,1 8
P/E (x) 28,3 15,7 11,8
P/E adj (x) 28,3 15,7 11,8
EV/sales (x) 1,7 1 0,8
FCF yield (%) 3,2 8,9 9,1
Dividend yield (%) 1,9 3,5 4,5
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,3 -0,7 -0,8
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 303 343 408
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 303 343 408
Other operating items -265 -300 -356
EBITDA 37 43 53
Depreciation on tangibles -2 -2 -3
Depreciation on intangibles -2 -2 -3
EBITA 27 31 41
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 27 31 41
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 26 30 40
Tax -7 -7 -9
Net profit 19 23 31
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 19 23 31
EPS 0,51 0,64 0,85
EPS Adj 0,51 0,64 0,85
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -27,6 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 12,4 12,4 12,9
EBITA margin (%) 8,8 8,9 10
EBIT margin (%) 8,8 8,9 10
Pretax margin (%) 8,5 8,7 9,8
Net margin (%) 6,2 6,8 7,6
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 21,2 13,2 19,1
EBITDA growth (%) 45,6 13,8 23,9
EBIT growth (%) 13,7 14,9 32,8
Net profit growth (%) 13,9 24,7 33,4
EPS growth (%) 11,6 23,4 33,4
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 33,8 33,6 36,5
ROE Adj (%) 33,8 33,6 36,5
ROCE (%) 40 33,1 37,6
ROCE Adj(%) 40 33,1 37,6
ROIC (%) 53,9 45,8 59,4
ROIC Adj (%) 53,9 45,8 59,4
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 37 43 53
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 12,4 12,4 12,9
EBITA Adj 27 31 41
EBITA Adj margin (%) 8,8 8,9 10
EBIT Adj 27 31 41
EBIT Adj margin (%) 8,8 8,9 10
Pretax profit Adj 26 30 40
Net profit Adj 19 23 31
Net profit to shareholders Adj 19 23 31
Net Adj margin (%) 6,2 6,8 7,6
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 37 43 53
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Paid tax -4 -7 -9
Non-cash items 4 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 37 35 43
Change in WC -8 5 -3
Operating cash flow 27 40 41
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -6 -4 -4
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -2 -4 -4
Acquisitions and disposals -1 0 0
Free cash flow 17 33 33
Dividend paid -8 -10 -13
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -20 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt -18 16 13
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 2 2 2
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 6 8 9
Tangible fixed assets 1 3 4
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 35 38 40
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 81 89 106
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 35 51 64
Total assets 151 178 210
Shareholders equity 63 76 94
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 63 76 94
Long-term debt 2 2 2
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 3 3 3
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 62 75 90
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 151 178 210
Net IB debt -12 -28 -41
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -12 -28 -41
Capital invested 53 51 56
Working capital 19 14 16
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 528 367 367
Net IB debt Adj -12 -28 -41
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 516 339 326
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 240,9 208,6 210,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 844,7 656,9 763,3
Capital employed turnover (%) 453,6 370,5 377,2
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 18,8 20,1 20,2
Working capital / sales (%) 4,8 4,7 3,7
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -19,8 -36,9 -43,8
Net debt / market cap (%) -2,3 -7,6 -11,3
Equity ratio (%) 41,6 42,8 44,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -19,5 -36,6 -43,6
Current ratio (%) 165,6 167,7 173,9
EBITDA / net interest (%) 4210,3 5330,4 6090,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -33,3 -65,7 -78,2
Interest cover (%) 2999,6 3833,9 4695,9
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 36 37 37
Fully diluted shares Adj 36 37 37
EPS 0,51 0,64 0,85
Dividend per share Adj 0,3 0,3 0,5
EPS Adj 0,51 0,64 0,85
BVPS 1,73 2,07 2,57
BVPS Adj 1,51 1,82 2,28
Net IB debt / share -0,3 -0,8 -1,1
Share price 15,1 10 10
Market cap. (m) 548 367 367
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 28,3 15,7 11,8
EV/sales 1,7 0,99 0,8
EV/EBITDA 13,8 8 6,2
EV/EBITA 19,3 11,1 8
EV/EBIT 19,3 11,1 8
Dividend yield (%) 1,9 3,5 4,5
FCF yield (%) 3,2 8,9 9,1
P/BVPS 8,4 4,83 3,89
P/BVPS Adj 9,64 5,51 4,38
P/E Adj 28,3 15,7 11,8
EV/EBITDA Adj 13,8 8 6,2
EV/EBITA Adj 19,3 11,1 8
EV/EBIT Adj 19,3 11,1 8
EV/cap. employed 6 3,4 2,8
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 2,9 2,2 1,8
Capex / depreciation 235,5 154,6 147
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 426,1 135,4 92,8
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 39,3 49,3 41,7
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 29,2 31,9 28,3
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 126,8 87,6 63,1

Equity research

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Media

Avensia - Interview with CEO Niklas Johansson (in Swedish)
Avensia - Company presentation with CEO Niklas Johansson

Main shareholders - Avensia

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
A5 Invest AB 26.2 % 26.2 % 31 Dec 2019
Valid Asset Management I Skåne AB 22.0 % 22.0 % 31 Dec 2019
Anders Wehtje 10.2 % 10.2 % 31 Dec 2019
John Löfström 4.6 % 4.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Avanza Pension 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 Dec 2019
Carl-Fredrik Herslow 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Dec 2019
AB Axel Granlund 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Dec 2019
Jan Karlander 2.0 % 2.0 % 31 Dec 2019
Aktia Asset Management 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Johan Liljeros 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Avensia

Name Quantity Code Date
Daniel Andreas Pletikos + 15 500 ALTM 11 Mar 2020
Kristian Hagset + 38 000 BUY 9 Mar 2020
Henrik Sellberg + 15 500 ALTM 6 Mar 2020
Roger Karlsson + 4 800 ALTM 6 Mar 2020
Agneta Ljungbeck + 2 400 ALTM 2 Mar 2020
Mia Helena Moström + 15 500 ALTM 2 Mar 2020
Thomas Bergström + 38 000 ALTM 2 Mar 2020
Nathalie Torshall + 4 800 ALTM 2 Mar 2020
Kristian Hagset - 3 570 SELL 2 Jan 2020
Kristian Hagset - 7 117 SELL 2 Jan 2020

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