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Avensia

Avensia

IT company with innovative power

Avensia is an IT company, operating in the e-commerce niche. The primary focus is to help its customers increase sales within all channels available, i.e. Omni channels. Avensia mainly generates income through consultancy, but in addition the company commercializes products. The main product is the self-developed e-commerce system Storefront, which is a link between the ERP system Microsoft Dynamics and e-commerce platform Episerver. Avensia’s customer base comprises both B2B and B2C customers (approx. 50% each) in the Nordics as well as globally.

The main opportunities for Avensia are 1) increasing investments in e-commerce due to digitalization, which will drive implementation of websites etc, 2) higher than anticipated penetration of the product Storefront, mainly internationally, and 3) continued demand of consultancies for strategical guidance within the e-commerce segment.

We see three risks for Avensia: 1) The high market growth within e-commerce might draw competition, which will put pressure on prices. Hence, both margins and revenue growth could decrease. 2) Avensia generates a big portion of its revenues through a high customer concentration, with the two biggest customers accounting for 27% of 2017 revenues. 3) Lately Avensia has invested significantly in new personnel. There is a risk that these new recruitments may not perform as well as anticipated.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 305 367 422
Sales growth (%) 21,9 20,5 14,9
EBITDA 35 49 58
EBITDA margin (%) 11,5 13,3 13,7
EBIT adj 25 38 47
EBIT adj margin (%) 8 10,4 11,2
Pretax profit 24 37 47
EPS rep 0,47 0,8 1
EPS growth (%) 2,2 69,5 25,1
EPS adj 0,47 0,8 1
DPS 0,35 0,5 0,6
EV/EBITDA (x) 14 9,8 8
EV/EBIT adj (x) 20 12,6 9,8
P/E (x) 29,7 17,5 14
P/E adj (x) 29,7 17,5 14
EV/sales (x) 1,6 1,3 1,1
FCF yield (%) 4,9 6,1 8,1
Dividend yield (%) 2,5 3,6 4,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,5 -0,6 -0,8
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 305 367 422
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 305 367 422
Other operating items -270 -318 -364
EBITDA 35 49 58
Depreciation on tangibles -2 -2 -2
Depreciation on intangibles -1 -1 -1
EBITA 25 38 47
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 25 38 47
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 24 37 47
Tax -7 -8 -10
Net profit 17 29 36
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 17 29 36
EPS 0,47 0,8 1
EPS Adj 0,47 0,8 1
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -27,6 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 11,5 13,3 13,7
EBITA margin (%) 8 10,4 11,2
EBIT margin (%) 8 10,4 11,2
Pretax margin (%) 7,8 10,1 11
Net margin (%) 5,6 7,9 8,6
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 21,9 20,5 14,9
EBITDA growth (%) 36,4 38,6 19
EBIT growth (%) 4,4 55,3 24,6
Net profit growth (%) 4,3 69,5 25,1
EPS growth (%) 2,2 69,5 25,1
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 31,7 42,4 42,4
ROE Adj (%) 31,7 42,4 42,4
ROCE (%) 37,3 41,3 43,3
ROCE Adj(%) 37,3 41,3 43,3
ROIC (%) 57,7 64,8 74,7
ROIC Adj (%) 57,7 64,8 74,7
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 35 49 58
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 11,5 13,3 13,7
EBITA Adj 25 38 47
EBITA Adj margin (%) 8 10,4 11,2
EBIT Adj 25 38 47
EBIT Adj margin (%) 8 10,4 11,2
Pretax profit Adj 24 37 47
Net profit Adj 17 29 36
Net profit to shareholders Adj 17 29 36
Net Adj margin (%) 5,6 7,9 8,6
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 35 49 58
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Paid tax -7 -8 -10
Non-cash items 2 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 30 40 47
Change in WC 4 -1 1
Operating cash flow 35 38 48
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -6 -4 -3
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -3 -4 -3
Acquisitions and disposals -1 0 0
Free cash flow 25 31 41
Dividend paid -8 -13 -18
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -22 -1 0
Decrease in net IB debt -12 11 16
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 2 2 2
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 6 8 11
Tangible fixed assets 4 6 7
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 37 41 45
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 74 90 101
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 42 53 69
Total assets 153 184 215
Shareholders equity 60 77 95
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 60 77 95
Long-term debt 2 2 2
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 1 1 1
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 68 83 95
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 69 100 153
Net IB debt -18 -30 -46
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -18 -30 -46
Capital invested 43 48 51
Working capital 6 7 6
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 508 508 508
Net IB debt Adj -18 -29 -45
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 490 479 463
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 240,1 217,4 211,3
Capital invested turnover (%) 989,7 801,5 851,8
Capital employed turnover (%) 463 398,2 385,4
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 19,6 20,5 21
Working capital / sales (%) 2,7 1,8 1,6
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -30,6 -38,8 -48
Net debt / market cap (%) -3,4 -5,8 -9
Equity ratio (%) 39,3 41,6 44,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -30,2 -38,4 -47,8
Current ratio (%) 154,3 159,4 166,7
EBITDA / net interest (%) 4005,3 5612 6679,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -52,6 -61 -78,6
Interest cover (%) 2795,9 4389,8 5468,5
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 36 36 36
Fully diluted shares Adj 36 36 36
EPS 0,47 0,8 1
Dividend per share Adj 0,3 0,5 0,6
EPS Adj 0,47 0,8 1
BVPS 1,66 2,11 2,61
BVPS Adj 1,45 1,83 2,27
Net IB debt / share -0,5 -0,8 -1,3
Share price 15,1 14 14
Market cap. (m) 548 508 508
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 29,7 17,5 14
EV/sales 1,61 1,3 1,1
EV/EBITDA 14 9,8 8
EV/EBITA 20 12,6 9,8
EV/EBIT 20 12,6 9,8
Dividend yield (%) 2,5 3,6 4,3
FCF yield (%) 4,9 6,1 8,1
P/BVPS 8,43 6,63 5,36
P/BVPS Adj 9,63 7,65 6,18
P/E Adj 29,7 17,5 14
EV/EBITDA Adj 14 9,8 8
EV/EBITA Adj 20 12,6 9,8
EV/EBIT Adj 20 12,6 9,8
EV/cap. employed 5,8 4,8 3,9
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 3 2 1,6
Capex / depreciation 260,2 209,8 198,5
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 146,5 66,1 51,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 47,1 43,7 31,4
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 18,1 12,5 9,5
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 56,3 44,1 36,3

Equity research

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Media

Avensia - Interview with CEO Niklas Johansson (in Swedish)
Avensia - Company presentation with CEO Niklas Johansson

Main shareholders - Avensia

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
A5 Invest AB 26.2 % 26.2 % 31 Dec 2019
Valid Asset Management I Skåne AB 22.0 % 22.0 % 31 Dec 2019
Anders Wehtje 10.2 % 10.2 % 31 Dec 2019
John Löfström 4.6 % 4.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Avanza Pension 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 Dec 2019
AB Axel Granlund 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Dec 2019
Jan Karlander 2.0 % 2.0 % 31 Dec 2019
Aktia Asset Management 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Johan Liljeros 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Carl-Fredrik Herslow Invest AB 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Avensia

Name Quantity Code Date
Kristian Hagset - 3 570 SELL 2 Jan 2020
Kristian Hagset - 7 117 SELL 2 Jan 2020
Kristian Hagset - 2 297 SELL 2 Jan 2020
Kristian Hagset - 3 412 SELL 2 Jan 2020
Kristian Hagset - 15 852 SELL 2 Jan 2020
Kristian Hagset - 885 SELL 2 Jan 2020
Kristian Hagset - 3 764 SELL 2 Jan 2020
Kristian Hagset - 338 SELL 27 Dec 2019
Anders Fredrik Axel Wehtje + 11 257 BUY 6 Sep 2019
Anders Fredrik Axel Wehtje + 7 348 BUY 5 Sep 2019

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