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Avensia

Avensia

IT company with innovative power

Avensia is an IT company, operating in the e-commerce niche. The primary focus is to help its customers increase sales within all channels available, i.e. Omni channels. Avensia mainly generates income through consultancy, but in addition the company commercializes products. The main product is the self-developed e-commerce system Storefront, which is a link between the ERP system Microsoft Dynamics and e-commerce platform Episerver. Avensia’s customer base comprises both B2B and B2C customers (approx. 50% each) in the Nordics as well as globally.

The main opportunities for Avensia are 1) increasing investments in e-commerce due to digitalization, which will drive implementation of websites etc, 2) higher than anticipated penetration of the product Storefront, mainly internationally, and 3) continued demand of consultancies for strategical guidance within the e-commerce segment.

We see three risks for Avensia: 1) The high market growth within e-commerce might draw competition, which will put pressure on prices. Hence, both margins and revenue growth could decrease. 2) Avensia generates a big portion of its revenues through a high customer concentration, with the two biggest customers accounting for 27% of 2017 revenues. 3) Lately Avensia has invested significantly in new personnel. There is a risk that these new recruitments may not perform as well as anticipated.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 303 329 403
Sales growth (%) 21,2 8,6 22,6
EBITDA 37 31 50
EBITDA margin (%) 12,4 9,3 12,5
EBIT adj 27 18 38
EBIT adj margin (%) 8,8 5,5 9,3
Pretax profit 26 17 37
EPS rep 0,51 0,36 0,78
EPS growth (%) 11,6 -29,7 115
EPS adj 0,51 0,36 0,78
DPS 0 0,3 0,4
EV/EBITDA (x) 13,8 13,2 7,8
EV/EBIT adj (x) 19,3 22,2 10,4
P/E (x) 28,3 32,6 15,2
P/E adj (x) 28,3 32,6 15,2
EV/sales (x) 1,7 1,2 1
FCF yield (%) 3,2 5,4 7,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 2,5 3,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,3 -0,9 -0,8
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 303 329 403
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 303 329 403
Other operating items -265 -298 -353
EBITDA 37 31 50
Depreciation on tangibles -2 -3 -3
Depreciation on intangibles -2 -3 -3
EBITA 27 18 38
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 27 18 38
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 26 17 37
Tax -7 -4 -8
Net profit 19 13 29
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 19 13 29
EPS 0,51 0,36 0,78
EPS Adj 0,51 0,36 0,78
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -27,6 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 12,4 9,3 12,5
EBITA margin (%) 8,8 5,5 9,3
EBIT margin (%) 8,8 5,5 9,3
Pretax margin (%) 8,5 5,2 9,1
Net margin (%) 6,2 4 7,1
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 21,2 8,6 22,6
EBITDA growth (%) 45,6 -18 63,5
EBIT growth (%) 13,7 -31,9 106,8
Net profit growth (%) 13,9 -29 115
EPS growth (%) 11,6 -29,7 115
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 33,8 19,1 33,6
ROE Adj (%) 33,8 19,1 33,6
ROCE (%) 40 19,6 34,8
ROCE Adj(%) 40 19,6 34,8
ROIC (%) 53,9 27,4 55,8
ROIC Adj (%) 53,9 27,4 55,8
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 37 31 50
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 12,4 9,3 12,5
EBITA Adj 27 18 38
EBITA Adj margin (%) 8,8 5,5 9,3
EBIT Adj 27 18 38
EBIT Adj margin (%) 8,8 5,5 9,3
Pretax profit Adj 26 17 37
Net profit Adj 19 13 29
Net profit to shareholders Adj 19 13 29
Net Adj margin (%) 6,2 4 7,1
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 37 31 50
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Paid tax -4 -4 -8
Non-cash items 4 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 37 26 41
Change in WC -8 6 -3
Operating cash flow 27 31 38
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -6 -4 -4
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -2 -4 -4
Acquisitions and disposals -1 0 0
Free cash flow 17 24 31
Dividend paid -8 0 -11
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -20 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt -18 16 13
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 2 2 2
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 6 8 8
Tangible fixed assets 1 3 4
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 35 37 39
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 81 86 105
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 35 52 65
Total assets 151 175 209
Shareholders equity 63 76 94
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 63 76 94
Long-term debt 2 2 2
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 3 3 3
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 62 72 89
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 151 175 209
Net IB debt -12 -29 -42
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -12 -29 -42
Capital invested 53 50 55
Working capital 19 13 16
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 528 433 433
Net IB debt Adj -12 -29 -42
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 516 404 391
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 240,9 201,9 210,4
Capital invested turnover (%) 844,7 634,7 766,8
Capital employed turnover (%) 453,6 355,1 373,2
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 18,8 20,4 20
Working capital / sales (%) 4,8 4,9 3,6
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -19,8 -38 -44,6
Net debt / market cap (%) -2,3 -6,7 -9,7
Equity ratio (%) 41,6 43,6 44,9
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -19,5 -37,7 -44,4
Current ratio (%) 165,6 170,7 175,1
EBITDA / net interest (%) 4210,3 2652,8 5023,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -33,3 -94,2 -83,2
Interest cover (%) 2999,6 1570,6 3760,4
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 36 37 37
Fully diluted shares Adj 36 37 37
EPS 0,51 0,36 0,78
Dividend per share Adj 0 0,3 0,4
EPS Adj 0,51 0,36 0,78
BVPS 1,73 2,08 2,55
BVPS Adj 1,51 1,82 2,28
Net IB debt / share -0,3 -0,8 -1,1
Share price 15,1 11,8 11,8
Market cap. (m) 548 433 433
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 28,3 32,6 15,2
EV/sales 1,7 1,23 0,97
EV/EBITDA 13,8 13,2 7,8
EV/EBITA 19,3 22,2 10,4
EV/EBIT 19,3 22,2 10,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 2,5 3,4
FCF yield (%) 3,2 5,4 7,2
P/BVPS 8,4 5,69 4,62
P/BVPS Adj 9,64 6,48 5,18
P/E Adj 28,3 32,6 15,2
EV/EBITDA Adj 13,8 13,2 7,8
EV/EBITA Adj 19,3 22,2 10,4
EV/EBIT Adj 19,3 22,2 10,4
EV/cap. employed 6 4,1 3,3
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 2,9 2,4 1,8
Capex / depreciation 235,5 145,1 131
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 426,1 147,3 102,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 39,3 52,3 43,2
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 29,2 36,1 33
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 126,8 101,5 78,3

Equity research

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Media

Avensia - Company presentation with CEO Anders Wehtje (in English)
Avensia - Interview with CEO Niklas Johansson (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - Avensia

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
A5 Invest AB 26.2 % 26.2 % 31 Mar 2020
Valid Asset Management I Skåne AB 21.8 % 21.8 % 31 Mar 2020
Anders Wehtje 10.2 % 10.2 % 31 Mar 2020
John Löfström 4.6 % 4.6 % 31 Mar 2020
Avanza Pension 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 Mar 2020
AB Axel Granlund 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Mar 2020
Aktia Asset Management 2.0 % 2.0 % 31 Mar 2020
Carl-Fredrik Herslow 2.0 % 2.0 % 31 Mar 2020
Jan Karlander 1.9 % 1.9 % 31 Mar 2020
Johan Liljeros 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Mar 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Avensia

Name Quantity Code Date
Nathalie Torshall + 94 ALTM 22 Jun 2020
John Järpling + 1 504 ALTM 18 Jun 2020
Mia Helena Moström + 2 820 ALTM 18 Jun 2020
Thomas Bergström + 2 350 ALTM 18 Jun 2020
Kristian Hagset + 2 350 BUY 17 Jun 2020
Niklas Johnsson + 3 760 BUY 17 Jun 2020
Mats Näs + 564 ALTM 17 Jun 2020
Henrik Pålsson + 1 880 SUBS 17 Jun 2020
Daniel Andreas Pletikos + 15 500 Redemp 16 Apr 2020
Jörgen Bertilsson + 38 000 Redemp 16 Apr 2020

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