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Avensia

Avensia

IT company with innovative power

Avensia is an IT company, operating in the e-commerce niche. The primary focus is to help its customers increase sales within all channels available, i.e. Omni channels. Avensia mainly generates income through consultancy, but in addition the company commercializes products. The main product is the self-developed e-commerce system Storefront, which is a link between the ERP system Microsoft Dynamics and e-commerce platform Episerver. Avensia’s customer base comprises both B2B and B2C customers (approx. 50% each) in the Nordics as well as globally.

The main opportunities for Avensia are 1) increasing investments in e-commerce due to digitalization, which will drive implementation of websites etc, 2) higher than anticipated penetration of the product Storefront, mainly internationally, and 3) continued demand of consultancies for strategical guidance within the e-commerce segment.

We see three risks for Avensia: 1) The high market growth within e-commerce might draw competition, which will put pressure on prices. Hence, both margins and revenue growth could decrease. 2) Avensia generates a big portion of its revenues through a high customer concentration, with the two biggest customers accounting for 27% of 2017 revenues. 3) Lately Avensia has invested significantly in new personnel. There is a risk that these new recruitments may not perform as well as anticipated.

SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 317 366 437
Sales growth (%) 4,6 15,6 19,3
EBITDA 8 40 51
EBITDA margin (%) 2,4 10,8 11,7
EBIT adj 3 25 36
EBIT adj margin (%) 1,1 6,8 8,3
Pretax profit -6 24 36
EPS rep -0,21 0,51 0,75
EPS growth (%) -141 342,7 47,1
EPS adj 0,03 0,51 0,75
DPS 0,3 0,35 0,4
EV/EBITDA (x) 78,1 13,3 10,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 176,3 21,1 14,3
P/E (x) -79,8 28,4 19,3
P/E adj (x) 553,9 28,4 19,3
EV/sales (x) 1,9 1,4 1,2
FCF yield (%) 3,2 1,9 4,9
Dividend yield (%) 1,8 2,4 2,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA -2,4 -0,3 -0,3
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 2,1 0,5 3,5
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -4,2 -1 -0,9
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Depreciation and amortisation -13 -15 -15
Of which leasing depreciation -7 -7 -7
EO items -9 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj 10 33 44
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 3 8,9 10,1
Sales 317 366 437
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 317 366 437
Other operating items -309 -327 -386
EBITDA 8 40 51
Depreciation on tangibles -3 -4 -4
Depreciation on intangibles -3 -4 -4
EBITA -5 25 36
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -5 25 36
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -6 24 36
Tax -1 -5 -8
Net profit -8 19 28
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -8 19 28
EPS -0,21 0,51 0,75
EPS Adj 0,03 0,51 0,75
Total extraordinary items after tax -8,9 0 0
Tax rate (%) 22,5 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 2,4 10,8 11,7
EBITA margin (%) -1,7 6,8 8,3
EBIT margin (%) -1,7 6,8 8,3
Pretax margin (%) -2 6,6 8,2
Net margin (%) -2,5 5,2 6,4
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) 4,6 15,6 19,3
EBITDA growth (%) -79,4 412,5 28,8
EBIT growth (%) -120,5 556,7 45,6
Net profit growth (%) -141,6 342,7 47,1
EPS growth (%) -141 342,7 47,1
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) -12,7 29,9 37,3
ROE Adj (%) 1,8 29,9 37,3
ROCE (%) -6,5 28,6 36,9
ROCE Adj(%) 4 28,6 36,9
ROIC (%) -13,7 37,3 43,9
ROIC Adj (%) 8,6 37,3 43,9
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 17 40 51
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 5,2 10,8 11,7
EBITA Adj 3 25 36
EBITA Adj margin (%) 1,1 6,8 8,3
EBIT Adj 3 25 36
EBIT Adj margin (%) 1,1 6,8 8,3
Pretax profit Adj 3 24 36
Net profit Adj 1 19 28
Net profit to shareholders Adj 1 19 28
Net Adj margin (%) 0,4 5,2 6,4
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
EBITDA 8 40 51
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Lease liability amortisation -7 -7 -7
Other intangible assets 10 13 16
Right-of-use asset 25 25 25
Total other fixed assets 1 1 1
Leasing liability 23 23 23
Total other long-term liabilities 3 3 3
Net IB debt excl. leasing -40 -32 -38
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -418,6 -97,7 -86,1
Paid tax -1 -5 -8
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 5 33 42
Change in WC 26 -11 -3
Operating cash flow 32 22 40
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -6 -6 -7
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -6 -6 -7
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 20 10 26
Dividend paid -10 -11 -13
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 3 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 6 -8 6
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 2 2 2
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 10 13 16
Tangible fixed assets 4 7 10
Other fixed assets 1 1 1
Fixed assets 42 47 53
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 84 95 114
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 41 33 39
Total assets 167 175 206
Shareholders equity 59 67 82
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 59 67 82
Long-term debt 2 2 2
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 3 3 3
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 80 81 96
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 167 175 206
Net IB debt -18 -10 -16
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -18 -10 -16
Capital invested 44 60 69
Working capital 4 15 17
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 621 536 536
Net IB debt Adj -17 -9 -15
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 604 527 521
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 199,3 214,1 229,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 648,5 700,3 675,1
Capital employed turnover (%) 374,1 419,4 442,7
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 22,4 21,9 20,2
Working capital / sales (%) 3,5 2,5 3,7
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) -30,9 -15,2 -19,7
Net debt / market cap (%) -3,8 -1,9 -3
Equity ratio (%) 35,5 38,3 39,9
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -29,3 -13,7 -18,6
Current ratio (%) 140,9 144 145,9
EBITDA / net interest (%) 882,1 4950,1 6375,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -236,9 -25,7 -31,7
Interest cover (%) -625,1 3126,1 4551,7
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 2,1 0,5 3,5
Shares outstanding adj. 37 37 37
Fully diluted shares Adj 37 37 37
EPS -0,21 0,51 0,75
Dividend per share Adj 0,3 0,4 0,4
EPS Adj 0,03 0,51 0,75
BVPS 1,61 1,82 2,22
BVPS Adj 1,28 1,43 1,75
Net IB debt / share -0,5 -0,3 -0,4
Share price 12,99 14,55 14,55
Market cap. (m) 479 536 536
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E -79,8 28,4 19,3
EV/sales 1,9 1,44 1,19
EV/EBITDA 78,1 13,3 10,2
EV/EBITA -110,2 21,1 14,3
EV/EBIT -110,2 21,1 14,3
Dividend yield (%) 1,8 2,4 2,7
FCF yield (%) 3,2 1,9 4,9
P/BVPS 10,48 7,99 6,54
P/BVPS Adj 13,14 10,19 8,32
P/E Adj 553,9 28,4 19,3
EV/EBITDA Adj 36,3 13,3 10,2
EV/EBITA Adj 176,3 21,1 14,3
EV/EBIT Adj 176,3 21,1 14,3
EV/cap. employed 7,2 5,8 4,9
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 3,7 3,4 3,1
Capex / depreciation 191,8 165,9 180,5
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 141,1 93,9 70,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 57 48,8 42,9
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 29,7 29,4 23,8
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 73,6 56,6 38,9
N/A N/A N/A

Equity research

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Media

Avensia - Company presentation with CFO Anders Wehtje
Avensia - Company presentation with CEO Anders Wehtje (in English)

Main shareholders - Avensia

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
A5 Invest AB 25.8 % 25.8 % 31 Dec 2020
Valid Asset Management i Skåne AB 21.7 % 21.7 % 31 Dec 2020
Anders Wehtje 10.3 % 10.3 % 18 Feb 2021
Enter Fonder 3.8 % 3.8 % 28 Feb 2021
Avanza Pension 2.7 % 2.7 % 31 Dec 2020
Måns Flodberg 2.3 % 2.3 % 31 Dec 2020
AB Axel Granlund 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Dec 2020
Aktia Asset Management 2.0 % 2.0 % 31 Dec 2020
Johan Liljeros 1.9 % 1.9 % 31 Dec 2020
Jan Karlander 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Dec 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Avensia

Name Quantity Code Date
Nina Quist + 1 000 BUY 1 Mar 2021
Anders Fredrik Axel Wehtje + 15 000 BUY 19 Feb 2021
Anders Fredrik Axel Wehtje + 1 751 BUY 18 Feb 2021
Anders Fredrik Axel Wehtje + 18 249 BUY 17 Feb 2021
Kristian Hagset - 4 079 SELL 15 Jan 2021
Kristian Hagset + 2 000 BUY 14 Jan 2021
Kristian Hagset - 469 SELL 14 Jan 2021
Kristian Hagset - 2 500 SELL 13 Jan 2021
Thomas Bergström - 5 000 SELL 13 Jan 2021
Kristian Hagset + 2 500 BUY 13 Jan 2021

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