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Catena

Modern and strategically located logistics properties

Catena is Sweden's largest real estate company focused on logistics properties, and the company's real estate portfolio is concentrated around Greater Stockholm, Malmö, Göteborg, Helsingborg and Jönköping. The company has a long history in various forms, but the current Catena took shape in 2013 when most of Brinova's property portfolio was acquired through a reverse merger. In 2015, Catena divested a large development property in Solna to Fabege and acquired the property company Tribona, which was consolidated in early 2016.

Catena is the Swedish market leader within e-commerce and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) properties, focused on structural change and the shift towards faster delivery of products and food. In line with the increase in freight flows, increased trade and e-commerce, the need for modern logistics sites is increasing. The group has a strong property portfolio and invests around SEK 600m p.a. in property development and new construction.

Around 44% of Catena’s rental value comes from Greater Stockholm. Rental rates for the logistics sector in that region, inflation-adjusted, have been stable since 1990. In addition, most of Catena’s logistics facilities are in locations where land is abundant, which implies that potential rental growth may be difficult to achieve. This results in a smaller upside in terms of unrealised value changes compared with other real estate segments, but more solid earnings during recessions. Overall, Catena’s real estate portfolio is well diversified, and the main risk is macro. Moreover, Catena has a higher focus on property development compared with peers, thus increasing risk.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Rental Income 1091 1182 1263
Rental growth (%) 22,3 8,4 6,8
Net operating income 829 918 982
NOI margin (%) 76 77,7 77,8
CEPS Adj 14,77 16,77 18,1
CEPS Adj. growth (%) 29,9 13,5 7,9
DPS 5,75 6,25 6,75
EPRA NAVPS 169,53 196,58 223,89
EPS 22 20,33 14,97
EPS Adj 22 20,33 14,97
P/CEPS Adj. (x) 14,9 19,4 18
P/E Adj. (x) 10 16 21,8
P/EPRANAV (x) 1,3 1,66 1,46
Implicit yield (%) 5,1 4,2 4,4
div.yield (%) 2,6 1,9 2,1
LTV (%) 55,9 54,4 53
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Rental income 1091 1182 1263
Other income 0 0 0
Operating costs -262 -264 -281
Net operating income 829 918 982
NOI margin (%) 76 77,7 77,8
Value change realized 5 13 0
Value change unrealized 340 383 0
Administration costs -31 -33 -35
All other income & costs 0 0 0
EBIT 1141 1273 942
Net financial items -236 -237 -237
Value change derivatives 35 -70 0
Pretax profit 940 965 705
Deferred profit tax -109 -191 -117
Current tax -8 -13 -28
Net profit 823 761 560
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 823 761 560
Other income statement related information 2018 2019 2020
Cash earnings 553 627 677
Tax rate (%) -12,4 -21,2 -20,6
Net investments 1245 796 1157
Acquisitions N/A N/A N/A
Other investments 0 0 0
Divestments N/A N/A N/A
EPS 22 20,33 14,97
CEPS 14,77 16,77 18,1
CEPS adj. 14,77 16,77 18,1
Dividend per share Adj 5,75 6,25 6,75
Payout ratio of CEPS (%) 38,9 37,3 37,3
Rental growth (%) 22,3 8,4 6,8
NOI growth (%) 23,4 10,8 6,9
CEPS growth (%) 29,9 13,5 7,9
CEPS adj. growth (%) 29,9 13,5 7,9
Balance Sheet 2018 2019 2020
Properties 14721 15912 17069
Deferred tax asset 97 92 87
Receivables 154 167 178
Cash and liquid assets 281 281 281
Other assets 732 1147 1225
Current liabilities 411 481 481
Total assets 15985 17599 18840
Shareholders equity 5309 6026 6787
Minority 0 0 0
Deferred tax 1272 1284 1313
Interest bearing debt 8994 9807 10260
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Derivatives 411 481 481
Total liabilities and equity 15985 17599 18840
Other balance sheet related information 2018 2019 2020
Net IB debt 8236 8655 9048
Rental area m2 (000) 1793 1793 1793
Rent per m2 608 659 704
Equity ratio (%) 33,2 34,2 36
Loan to value (%) 55,9 54,4 53
Net loan to value (%) 63 63,4 61,8
ICR real estate 3 4 4
Interest rate on debt (%) 3 3 3
Occupancy rate (%) 95,9 95,9 95,9
NAV per share 0 0 0
BVPS 141,89 161,07 181,4
EPRA NAV per share 169,53 196,58 223,89
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
Shares outstanding adj. 37 37 37
Share price 180,64 326 326
Market cap. (m) 6759 12197 12197
P/E 10 16 21,8
Net IB debt / share 220 231 242
P/CEPS 14,9 19,4 18
P/CEPS adj. 14,9 19,4 18
EV/EBIT 14,5 16,4 22,6
Implicit yield (%) 5,1 4,2 4,4
Yield on BV (%) 5,6 5,8 5,8
Dividend yield (%) 2,6 1,9 2,1
P/NAV N/A N/A N/A
P/EPRA NAV 1,3 1,66 1,46
P/BVPS 1,55 2,02 1,8
EV/NOI 19,89 22,71 21,64

Equity research

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Media

Catena - Company presentation with CEO Benny Thögersen & CFO Peter Andersson (in Swedish)
Catena: Intervju med VD Benny Thögersen (Q4 2017)

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Main shareholders - Catena

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Erik Paulsson & Bolag 29.8 % 29.8 % 30 Sep 2019
PGGM Pensioenfonds 8.1 % 8.1 % 30 Sep 2019
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 7.9 % 7.9 % 30 Sep 2019
Cohen & Steers 5.0 % 5.0 % 11 Jan 2019
Jan Persson 4.5 % 4.5 % 30 Sep 2019
Gustaf Hermelin 3.5 % 3.5 % 7 Mar 2019
Vanguard 1.9 % 1.9 % 30 Sep 2019
SEB Fonder 1.5 % 1.5 % 30 Sep 2019
Fjärde AP-fonden 1.5 % 1.5 % 30 Sep 2019
Norges Bank 1.3 % 1.3 % 30 Sep 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Catena

Name Quantity Code Date
Endicott Sweden AB -3 971 349 SELL 3 Sep 2019
Henry Klotz -3 971 349 SELL 3 Sep 2019
Mats Carreman - 500 SELL 22 Aug 2019
Gustaf Hermelin - 250 000 SELL 7 Mar 2019
Mats Carreman - 1 000 SELL 27 Feb 2019
Sofie Bennsten + 200 BUY 21 Nov 2018
Peter Andersson + 500 BUY 20 Nov 2018
Benny Thögersen + 1 100 BUY 20 Nov 2018
Gustaf Hermelin - 250 000 SELL 15 Nov 2018
Gustaf Hermelin - 3 392 SELL 15 Sep 2017

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