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Catena

Catena

Modern and strategically located logistics properties

Catena is Sweden's largest real estate company focused on logistics properties, and the company's real estate portfolio is concentrated around Greater Stockholm, Malmö, Göteborg, Helsingborg and Jönköping. The company has a long history in various forms, but the current Catena took shape in 2013 when most of Brinova's property portfolio was acquired through a reverse merger. In 2015, Catena divested a large development property in Solna to Fabege and acquired the property company Tribona, which was consolidated in early 2016.

Catena is the Swedish market leader within e-commerce and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) properties, focused on structural change and the shift towards faster delivery of products and food. In line with the increase in freight flows, increased trade and e-commerce, the need for modern logistics sites is increasing. The group has a strong property portfolio and invests around SEK 600m p.a. in property development and new construction.

Around 44% of Catena’s rental value comes from Greater Stockholm. Rental rates for the logistics sector in that region, inflation-adjusted, have been stable since 1990. In addition, most of Catena’s logistics facilities are in locations where land is abundant, which implies that potential rental growth may be difficult to achieve. This results in a smaller upside in terms of unrealised value changes compared with other real estate segments, but more solid earnings during recessions. Overall, Catena’s real estate portfolio is well diversified, and the main risk is macro. Moreover, Catena has a higher focus on property development compared with peers, thus increasing risk.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Rental Income 1185 1265 1339
Rental growth (%) 8,6 6,8 5,8
Net operating income 914 980 1039
NOI margin (%) 77,2 77,4 77,6
CEPS Adj 16,94 18,1 19,76
CEPS Adj. growth (%) 14,7 6,9 9,2
DPS 6,25 6,75 7,25
EPRA NAVPS 201,42 229,02 256,36
EPS 26,17 14,97 16,34
EPS Adj 26,17 14,97 16,34
P/CEPS Adj. (x) 24,9 23,3 21,4
P/E Adj. (x) 16,1 28,2 25,8
P/EPRANAV (x) 2,1 1,84 1,65
Implicit yield (%) 4,4 3,8 3,9
div.yield (%) 1,5 1,6 1,7
LTV (%) 53,2 51,9 50,6
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Rental income 1185 1265 1339
Other income 0 0 0
Operating costs -271 -286 -300
Net operating income 914 980 1039
NOI margin (%) 77,2 77,4 77,6
Value change realized 71 0 0
Value change unrealized 592 0 0
Administration costs -33 -35 -37
All other income & costs 0 0 0
EBIT 1537 940 997
Net financial items -234 -234 -227
Value change derivatives -80 0 0
Pretax profit 1224 705 770
Deferred profit tax -238 -117 -128
Current tax -6 -28 -31
Net profit 979 560 611
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 979 560 611
Other income statement related information 2019 2020 2021
Cash earnings 634 677 739
Tax rate (%) -20 -20,6 -20,6
Net investments 822 1167 1121
Acquisitions N/A N/A N/A
Other investments 0 0 0
Divestments N/A N/A N/A
EPS 26,17 14,97 16,34
CEPS 16,94 18,1 19,76
CEPS adj. 16,94 18,1 19,76
Dividend per share Adj 6,25 6,75 7,25
Payout ratio of CEPS (%) 36,9 37,3 36,7
Rental growth (%) 8,6 6,8 5,8
NOI growth (%) 10,3 7,2 6
CEPS growth (%) 14,7 6,9 9,2
CEPS adj. growth (%) 14,7 6,9 9,2
Balance Sheet 2019 2020 2021
Properties 16206 17373 18495
Deferred tax asset 92 87 82
Receivables 168 179 189
Cash and liquid assets 281 281 281
Other assets 1149 1227 1298
Current liabilities 490 490 490
Total assets 17896 19147 20345
Shareholders equity 6357 7125 7891
Minority 0 0 0
Deferred tax 1278 1306 1337
Interest bearing debt 9770 10225 10627
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Derivatives 490 490 490
Total liabilities and equity 17896 19147 20345
Other balance sheet related information 2019 2020 2021
Net IB debt 8617 9012 9360
Rental area m2 (000) 1793 1793 1793
Rent per m2 661 706 747
Equity ratio (%) 35,5 37,2 38,8
Loan to value (%) 53,2 51,9 50,6
Net loan to value (%) 62 60,5 59
ICR real estate 4 4 4
Interest rate on debt (%) 3 3 2
Occupancy rate (%) 95,9 95,9 95,9
NAV per share 0 0 0
BVPS 169,91 190,45 210,91
EPRA NAV per share 201,42 229,02 256,36
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
Shares outstanding adj. 37 37 37
Share price 297,48 422 422
Market cap. (m) 11130 15789 15789
P/E 16,1 28,2 25,8
Net IB debt / share 230 241 250
P/CEPS 24,9 23,3 21,4
P/CEPS adj. 24,9 23,3 21,4
EV/EBIT 15,9 26,4 25,2
Implicit yield (%) 4,4 3,8 3,9
Yield on BV (%) 5,6 5,6 5,6
Dividend yield (%) 1,5 1,6 1,7
P/NAV N/A N/A N/A
P/EPRA NAV 2,1 1,84 1,65
P/BVPS 2,48 2,22 2
EV/NOI 26,69 25,31 24,2

Equity research

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Media

Catena - Company presentation with CEO Benny Thögersen (in Swedish)
Catena - Company presentation with CEO Benny Thögersen & CFO Peter Andersson (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - Catena

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Erik Paulsson & Bolag 29.8 % 29.8 % 31 Dec 2019
PGGM Pensioenfonds 9.4 % 9.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 7.7 % 7.7 % 31 Dec 2019
Jan Persson 4.5 % 4.5 % 31 Dec 2019
Gustaf Hermelin 3.5 % 3.5 % 31 Dec 2019
Vanguard 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Dec 2019
BlackRock 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Cohen & Steers 1.7 % 1.7 % 31 Dec 2019
Fjärde AP-fonden 1.7 % 1.7 % 31 Dec 2019
SEB Fonder 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Catena

Name Quantity Code Date
Endicott Sweden AB -3 971 349 SELL 3 Sep 2019
Henry Klotz -3 971 349 SELL 3 Sep 2019
Mats Carreman - 500 SELL 22 Aug 2019
Gustaf Hermelin - 250 000 SELL 7 Mar 2019
Mats Carreman - 1 000 SELL 27 Feb 2019
Sofie Bennsten + 200 BUY 21 Nov 2018
Peter Andersson + 500 BUY 20 Nov 2018
Benny Thögersen + 1 100 BUY 20 Nov 2018
Gustaf Hermelin - 250 000 SELL 15 Nov 2018
Gustaf Hermelin - 3 392 SELL 15 Sep 2017

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