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Catena

Catena

Modern and strategically located logistics properties

Catena is Sweden's largest real estate company focused on logistics properties, and the company's real estate portfolio is concentrated around Greater Stockholm, Malmö, Göteborg, Helsingborg and Jönköping. The company has a long history in various forms, but the current Catena took shape in 2013 when most of Brinova's property portfolio was acquired through a reverse merger. In 2015, Catena divested a large development property in Solna to Fabege and acquired the property company Tribona, which was consolidated in early 2016.

Catena is the Swedish market leader within e-commerce and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) properties, focused on structural change and the shift towards faster delivery of products and food. In line with the increase in freight flows, increased trade and e-commerce, the need for modern logistics sites is increasing. The group has a strong property portfolio and invests around SEK 600m p.a. in property development and new construction.

Around 44% of Catena’s rental value comes from Greater Stockholm. Rental rates for the logistics sector in that region, inflation-adjusted, have been stable since 1990. In addition, most of Catena’s logistics facilities are in locations where land is abundant, which implies that potential rental growth may be difficult to achieve. This results in a smaller upside in terms of unrealised value changes compared with other real estate segments, but more solid earnings during recessions. Overall, Catena’s real estate portfolio is well diversified, and the main risk is macro. Moreover, Catena has a higher focus on property development compared with peers, thus increasing risk.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Rental Income 1183 1276 1342
Rental growth (%) 8,5 7,8 5,2
Net operating income 903 986 1040
NOI margin (%) 76,3 77,3 77,5
CEPS Adj 16,63 17,74 18,87
CEPS Adj. growth (%) 13 6,7 6,4
DPS 6,5 7 7,5
EPRA NAVPS 202,87 213,91 239,6
EPS 32,46 14,59 15,61
EPS Adj 32,46 14,59 15,61
P/CEPS Adj. (x) 24,9 20,4 19,2
P/E Adj. (x) 12,7 24,8 23,2
P/EPRANAV (x) 2,04 1,69 1,51
Implicit yield (%) 4,3 4,1 4,3
div.yield (%) 1,6 1,9 2,1
LTV (%) 53,2 53,2 52
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Rental income 1183 1276 1342
Other income 0 0 0
Operating costs -280 -290 -302
Net operating income 903 986 1040
NOI margin (%) 76,3 77,3 77,5
Value change realized 75 0 0
Value change unrealized 791 11 0
Administration costs -34 -38 -40
All other income & costs 0 0 0
EBIT 1728 947 993
Net financial items -235 -246 -251
Value change derivatives 29 -6 0
Pretax profit 1523 695 741
Deferred profit tax -299 -124 -123
Current tax 0 -20 -30
Net profit 1224 550 588
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 1224 550 588
Other income statement related information 2019 2020 2021
Cash earnings 627 669 711
Tax rate (%) -19,6 -20,8 -20,6
Net investments 683 611 1107
Acquisitions N/A N/A N/A
Other investments 0 0 0
Divestments N/A N/A N/A
EPS 32,46 14,59 15,61
CEPS 16,63 17,74 18,87
CEPS adj. 16,63 17,74 18,87
Dividend per share Adj 6,5 7 7,5
Payout ratio of CEPS (%) 39,1 39,5 39,7
Rental growth (%) 8,5 7,8 5,2
NOI growth (%) 8,9 9,2 5,5
CEPS growth (%) 13 6,7 6,4
CEPS adj. growth (%) 13 6,7 6,4
Balance Sheet 2019 2020 2021
Properties 16271 16892 17999
Deferred tax asset 85 80 75
Receivables 276 298 313
Cash and liquid assets 131 131 131
Other assets 1007 1086 1143
Current liabilities 381 387 387
Total assets 17770 18487 19662
Shareholders equity 6318 6623 7343
Minority 0 0 0
Deferred tax 1537 1557 1587
Interest bearing debt 9534 9920 10345
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Derivatives 381 387 387
Total liabilities and equity 17770 18487 19662
Other balance sheet related information 2019 2020 2021
Net IB debt 8653 8981 9363
Rental area m2 (000) 1843 1843 1843
Rent per m2 642 692 729
Equity ratio (%) 35,6 35,8 37,3
Loan to value (%) 53,2 53,2 52
Net loan to value (%) 59,4 59,5 58,2
ICR real estate 4 4 4
Interest rate on debt (%) 3 3 3
Occupancy rate (%) 95 95 95
NAV per share 0 0 0
BVPS 167,59 175,68 194,78
EPRA NAV per share 202,87 213,91 239,6
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
Shares outstanding adj. 38 38 38
Share price 297,48 362,5 362,5
Market cap. (m) 11215 13666 13666
P/E 12,7 24,8 23,2
Net IB debt / share 230 238 248
P/CEPS 24,9 20,4 19,2
P/CEPS adj. 24,9 20,4 19,2
EV/EBIT 14 23,9 23,2
Implicit yield (%) 4,3 4,1 4,3
Yield on BV (%) 5,5 5,8 5,8
Dividend yield (%) 1,6 1,9 2,1
P/NAV N/A N/A N/A
P/EPRA NAV 2,04 1,69 1,51
P/BVPS 2,47 2,06 1,86
EV/NOI 26,85 22,97 22,14

Equity research

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Media

Catena - Company presentation with CEO Benny Thögersen (in Swedish)
Catena - Company presentation with CEO Benny Thögersen & CFO Peter Andersson (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - Catena

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Erik Paulsson & Bolag 29.8 % 29.8 % 31 May 2020
PGGM Pensioenfonds 9.4 % 9.4 % 31 May 2020
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 7.5 % 7.5 % 30 Jun 2020
Gustaf Hermelin 3.5 % 3.5 % 31 May 2020
Fjärde AP-fonden 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 May 2020
Vanguard 2.3 % 2.3 % 31 May 2020
BlackRock 1.9 % 1.9 % 30 Jun 2020
BMO Global Asset Management 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 May 2020
SEB Fonder 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 May 2020
Aberdeen Standard Investments 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 May 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Catena

Name Quantity Code Date
Sofie Bennsten + 100 BUY 19 Mar 2020
Endicott Sweden AB -3 971 349 SELL 3 Sep 2019
Henry Klotz -3 971 349 SELL 3 Sep 2019
Mats Carreman - 500 SELL 22 Aug 2019
Gustaf Hermelin - 250 000 SELL 7 Mar 2019
Mats Carreman - 1 000 SELL 27 Feb 2019
Sofie Bennsten + 200 BUY 21 Nov 2018
Peter Andersson + 500 BUY 20 Nov 2018
Benny Thögersen + 1 100 BUY 20 Nov 2018
Gustaf Hermelin - 250 000 SELL 15 Nov 2018

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