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Cedergrenska

Cedergrenska

Cedergrenska is a Swedish independent educational provider founded in 2007. It offers a broad range of education, from preschools to higher vocational education. The majority of revenues stem from compulsory and upper secondary schools located in the northeast Stockholm region. The company runs its schools under a framework called “The Cedergrenska model”, which is based on geographical clusters where schools within cooperate to enhance education, create attractive workplaces and reach economies of scale.

Ever since the Swedish school market was de-regulated in 1992, independent schools have grown in popularity. A positive demographic outlook in conjunction with an ongoing urbanisation creates a need for new schools to be built, which independent actors like Cedergrenska can benefit from. In addition, the independent school market still contains many small players that may be of interest to the company to acquire.

The two key operational risks the company faces are sufficient funding from the school vouchers and political reforms. Swedish municipalities are facing economic constraints from an ageing population and there is concern about how this will translate to school vouchers. Furthermore, the political landscape is far from predictable, and we cannot rule out reforms that will be negative for independent school actors in the future.

SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 505 608 727
Sales growth (%) 58,9 20,4 19,6
EBITDA 53 52 67
EBITDA margin (%) 10,5 8,5 9,2
EBIT adj 29 31 31
EBIT adj margin (%) 5,8 5,1 4,3
Pretax profit 27 22 29
EPS rep 1,55 1,67 1,49
EPS growth (%) 37,5 8 -10,8
EPS adj 1,55 2,39 1,49
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) N/A 6,2 5,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) N/A 10,4 11,5
P/E (x) N/A 20,1 22,5
P/E adj (x) N/A 14,1 22,5
EV/sales (x) N/A 0,5 0,5
FCF yield (%) N/A -1,1 10,5
Dividend yield (%) N/A 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 1,2 0,2 -0,5
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) N/A -1,1 10,5
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 1,2 0,1 -0,5
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
EPS 1,55 1,67 1,49
EPS Adj 1,55 2,39 1,49
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 -6,6 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -36,1 -30,3 -39,4
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 10,5 8,5 9,2
EBITA margin (%) 9 7 7,9
EBIT margin (%) 5,8 4 4,3
Pretax margin (%) 5,3 3,6 3,9
Net margin (%) 3,4 2,5 2,4
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) 58,9 20,4 19,6
EBITDA growth (%) 41,2 -1,7 28,4
EBIT growth (%) 46,2 -17,4 29,4
Net profit growth (%) 40,5 -9,4 11,9
EPS growth (%) 37,5 8 -10,8
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) 38,2 15,8 11,8
ROE Adj (%) 71,5 41,5 29,6
ROCE (%) 21,8 13 14,6
ROCE Adj(%) 33,9 26,5 26,7
ROIC (%) 15,8 11,6 13,2
ROIC Adj (%) 15,8 14,8 13,2
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 53 59 67
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 10,5 9,6 9,2
EBITDA lease Adj 53 59 67
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 10,5 9,6 9,2
EBITA Adj 45 49 57
EBITA Adj margin (%) 9 8,1 7,9
EBIT Adj 29 31 31
EBIT Adj margin (%) 5,8 5,1 4,3
Pretax profit Adj 43 47 55
Net profit Adj 33 41 43
Net profit to shareholders Adj 35 41 43
Net Adj margin (%) 6,6 6,6 6
Sales 505 608 727
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 505 608 727
Other operating items -452 -556 -660
EBITDA 53 52 67
Depreciation and amortisation -7 -9 -10
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 45 43 57
EO items 0 -7 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -16 -19 -26
EBIT 29 24 31
Net financial items -2 -2 -3
Pretax profit 27 22 29
Tax -10 -7 -11
Net profit 17 15 17
Minority interest 2 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 19 15 17
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
EBITDA 53 52 67
Net financial items -2 -2 -3
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -2 -13 -11
Cash flow before change in WC 48 36 53
Change in WC 12 11 3
Operating cash flow 60 47 56
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -13 -14 -15
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -57 -36 0
Free cash flow -10 -3 41
Dividend paid 0 -17 0
Share issues and buybacks 4 75 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items -26 -32 -12
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 144 166 140
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 42 48 53
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 186 214 193
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 24 48 58
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 22 79 80
Total assets 232 341 331
Shareholders equity 58 138 155
Minority 6 0 0
Total equity 64 138 155
Long-term debt 58 35 17
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 7 8 8
Short-term debt 28 52 30
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 75 107 120
Total liabilities and equity 232 341 331
Net IB debt 64 8 -33
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 64 8 -33
Net IB debt excl. leasing 64 8 -33
Capital invested 135 155 131
Working capital -51 -59 -62
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) N/A 311 390
Net IB debt Adj 64 8 -33
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV N/A 320 358
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 249,8 212,1 216,5
Working capital / sales (%) -9 -9,1 -8,3
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) 100,3 6,1 -21
Net debt / market cap (%) N/A 2,7 -8,4
Equity ratio (%) 27,4 40,5 47
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 100,3 6,1 -21
Current ratio (%) 44,6 79,8 92,1
EBITDA / net interest (%) 2168,1 2388,1 2554,2
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 120,9 16,1 -48,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 120,9 14,3 -48,9
Interest cover (%) 1865,1 1963,2 2189,6
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Shares outstanding adj. 10 9 12
Fully diluted shares Adj 10 9 12
EPS 1,55 1,67 1,49
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 1,55 2,39 1,49
BVPS 5,82 14,9 13,37
BVPS Adj -8,61 -3,05 1,31
Net IB debt / share 6,4 0,9 -2,8
Share price N/A 33,65 33,65
Market cap. (m) N/A 311 390
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E N/A 20,1 22,5
EV/sales N/A 0,53 0,49
EV/EBITDA N/A 6,2 5,4
EV/EBITA N/A 7,5 6,3
EV/EBIT N/A 13,3 11,5
Dividend yield (%) N/A 0 0
FCF yield (%) N/A -1,1 10,5
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) N/A -1,1 10,5
P/BVPS N/A 2,26 2,52
P/BVPS Adj N/A -11,05 25,76
P/E Adj N/A 14,1 22,5
EV/EBITDA Adj N/A 5,5 5,4
EV/EBITA Adj N/A 6,5 6,3
EV/EBIT Adj N/A 10,4 11,5
EV/cap. employed N/A 1,4 1,8
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 2,6 2,3 2
Capex / depreciation 176,2 153,9 152,7
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 30,9 29,8 27,6
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 17,5 19,4 18,1

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Niklas Pålsson 18.2 % 18.2 % 6 Oct 2021
Håkan Söderström 15.6 % 15.6 % 24 May 2021
Daniel Andersson 11.0 % 11.0 % 30 Sep 2021
Christian Drougge 10.8 % 10.8 % 30 Sep 2021
David Sandgren 9.9 % 9.9 % 24 May 2021
Enter Fonder 7.2 % 7.2 % 30 Sep 2021
FE Fonder 4.3 % 4.3 % 30 Sep 2021
Endel Viitberg 2.4 % 2.4 % 30 Sep 2021
Ulf Greger Jönsson 2.1 % 2.1 % 30 Sep 2021
Avanza Pension 1.8 % 1.8 % 30 Sep 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB