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Concordia Maritime

International shipping company

Concordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence.

While declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market results in increased day rates, which consequently drives asset values. Increasing net asset values would be supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive dividend yields.

Declining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs. Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and less tanker demand for stockpiling.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 1053 1083 1216
Sales growth (%) 27,2 2,8 12,3
EBITDA 57 297 490
EBITDA margin (%) 5,4 27,4 40,3
EBIT adj -130 99 292
EBIT adj margin (%) -12,3 9,1 24
Pretax profit -182 17 210
EPS rep -3,81 0,36 4,4
EPS growth (%) 72,4 109,4 1132,2
EPS adj -3,81 0,36 4,4
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 29,3 4,7 2,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) -12,8 14,2 3,7
P/E (x) -3,2 31,5 2,6
P/E adj (x) -3,2 31,5 2,6
EV/sales (x) 1,6 1,3 0,9
FCF yield (%) -10,1 41,7 59,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 19,1 2,9 1,1
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 1053 1083 1216
COGS -996 -785 -726
Gross profit 57 297 490
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 57 297 490
Depreciation on tangibles -187 -198 -198
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA -130 99 292
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -130 99 292
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -52 -82 -82
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -182 17 210
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -182 17 210
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -182 17 210
EPS -3,81 0,36 4,4
EPS Adj -3,81 0,36 4,4
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,1 0 0
Gross margin (%) 5,4 27,4 40,3
EBITDA margin (%) 5,4 27,4 40,3
EBITA margin (%) -12,3 9,1 24
EBIT margin (%) -12,3 9,1 24
Pretax margin (%) -17,3 1,6 17,3
Net margin (%) -17,3 1,6 17,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 27,2 2,8 12,3
EBITDA growth (%) 10,9 422,2 65
EBIT growth (%) 79,2 175,9 195,6
Net profit growth (%) 72,4 109,4 1132,2
EPS growth (%) 72,4 109,4 1132,2
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) -15,9 1,6 17,7
ROE Adj (%) -15,9 1,6 17,7
ROCE (%) -4,4 4,8 15,5
ROCE Adj(%) -4,4 4,8 15,5
ROIC (%) -5,1 4,1 13,1
ROIC Adj (%) -5,1 4,1 13,1
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 57 297 490
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 5,4 27,4 40,3
EBITA Adj -130 99 292
EBITA Adj margin (%) -12,3 9,1 24
EBIT Adj -130 99 292
EBIT Adj margin (%) -12,3 9,1 24
Pretax profit Adj -182 17 210
Net profit Adj -182 17 210
Net profit to shareholders Adj -182 17 210
Net Adj margin (%) -17,3 1,6 17,3
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 57 297 490
Net financial items -52 -82 -82
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -64 -81 32
Cash flow before change in WC -59 135 440
Change in WC -57 89 -35
Operating cash flow -116 224 405
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -3 0 -87
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 61 0 0
Free cash flow -59 224 318
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 8 0 0
Other non cash items 191 -81 32
Decrease in net IB debt 141 144 350
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 2303 2105 1993
Other fixed assets 15 15 15
Fixed assets 2318 2119 2008
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 254 164 199
Other current assets 97 97 97
Cash and liquid assets 126 148 253
Total assets 2795 2528 2557
Shareholders equity 1062 1079 1289
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1062 1079 1289
Long-term debt 1022 819 606
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 279 279 279
Short-term debt 203 203 203
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 229 149 180
Total liabilities and equity 4142 2968 2795
Net IB debt 1084 860 542
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1084 860 542
Capital invested 2557 2269 2193
Working capital 254 164 199
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 582 537 537
Net IB debt Adj 1084 860 542
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1667 1397 1079
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 36,5 40,7 47,8
Capital invested turnover (%) 41,6 44,9 54,5
Capital employed turnover (%) 46,4 53 64,5
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 21,4 19,3 15
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) 102,1 79,8 42,1
Net debt / market cap (%) 209,1 160,2 101
Equity ratio (%) 38 42,7 50,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 102,1 79,8 42,1
Current ratio (%) 110,5 116,4 143,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) 109,8 364,1 600,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 1905,6 289,5 110,6
Interest cover (%) -120,1 120,9 357,4
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48
Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48
EPS -3,81 0,36 4,4
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -3,81 0,36 4,4
BVPS 22,24 22,6 27
BVPS Adj 22,24 22,6 27
Net IB debt / share 22,7 18 11,4
Share price 10,86 11,25 11,25
Market cap. (m) 519 537 537
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E -3,2 31,5 2,6
EV/sales 1,58 1,29 0,89
EV/EBITDA 29,3 4,7 2,2
EV/EBITA -12,8 14,2 3,7
EV/EBIT -12,8 14,2 3,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -10,1 41,7 59,2
P/BVPS 0,55 0,5 0,42
P/BVPS Adj 0,55 0,5 0,42
P/E Adj -3,2 31,5 2,6
EV/EBITDA Adj 29,3 4,7 2,2
EV/EBITA Adj -12,8 14,2 3,7
EV/EBIT Adj -12,8 14,2 3,7
EV/cap. employed 0,8 0,7 0,6
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 0,3 0 7,2
Capex / depreciation 1,6 0 43,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0,1 0 4,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 8,1 9,4 10

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Main shareholders

Concordia Maritime

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Stena 52.2 % 72.7 % 31 Dec 2018
Bengt Stillström 4.2 % 2.4 % 31 Dec 2018
Avanza Pension 2.9 % 1.7 % 31 Dec 2018
Stig Andersson 2.5 % 1.4 % 31 Dec 2018
Fourton Oy 2.4 % 1.4 % 28 Feb 2019
Traction 2.3 % 1.3 % 31 Dec 2018
Morgan-Åke Åkesson 1.7 % 1.0 % 31 Dec 2018
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 0.9 % 0.5 % 31 Dec 2018
Ann Stillström 0.8 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2018
Rutger Arnhult 0.6 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2018
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Concordia Maritime

Name Quantity Code Date
Mats Jansson + 9 670 BUY 19 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 6 700 BUY 14 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Helena Levander + 637 BUY 9 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 50 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 10 238 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 1 000 BUY 7 Feb 2018
MATS JANSSON + 6 000 BUY 1 Feb 2018
Gustaf Michael Gunnarsson Löw BUY 31 Jan 2018

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