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Concordia Maritime

Concordia Maritime

International shipping company

Concordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence.

While declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market results in increased day rates, which consequently drives asset values. Increasing net asset values would be supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive dividend yields.

Declining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs. Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and less tanker demand for stockpiling.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 1140 1510 1350
Sales growth (%) 8,3 32,4 -10,6
EBITDA 250 560 383
EBITDA margin (%) 21,9 37,1 28,4
EBIT adj 0 294 115
EBIT adj margin (%) 0 19,5 8,5
Pretax profit -102 189 21
EPS rep -2,15 3,95 0,44
EPS growth (%) 43,7 284 -88,8
EPS adj -2,15 3,95 0,44
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 6,5 1,9 2,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) -5371,9 3,7 7,3
P/E (x) -6,8 2,5 22,3
P/E adj (x) -6,8 2,5 22,3
EV/sales (x) 1,4 0,7 0,6
FCF yield (%) 5,2 64,7 50,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 3,7 1,1 1
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 1140 1510 1350
COGS -891 -950 -967
Gross profit 250 560 383
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 250 560 383
Depreciation on tangibles -250 -266 -268
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 0 294 115
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 0 294 115
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -102 -106 -94
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -102 189 21
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -103 189 21
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -103 189 21
EPS -2,15 3,95 0,44
EPS Adj -2,15 3,95 0,44
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,3 0 0
Gross margin (%) 21,9 37,1 28,4
EBITDA margin (%) 21,9 37,1 28,4
EBITA margin (%) 0 19,5 8,5
EBIT margin (%) 0 19,5 8,5
Pretax margin (%) -9 12,5 1,6
Net margin (%) -9 12,5 1,6
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 8,3 32,4 -10,6
EBITDA growth (%) 338,7 124,4 -31,7
EBIT growth (%) 99,8 98165 -60,9
Net profit growth (%) 43,7 284 -88,8
EPS growth (%) 43,7 284 -88,8
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -9,7 16,3 1,7
ROE Adj (%) -9,7 16,3 1,7
ROCE (%) 0,8 14,7 7
ROCE Adj(%) 0,8 14,7 7
ROIC (%) 0 9 3,6
ROIC Adj (%) 0 9 3,6
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 250 560 383
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 21,9 37,1 28,4
EBITA Adj 0 294 115
EBITA Adj margin (%) 0 19,5 8,5
EBIT Adj 0 294 115
EBIT Adj margin (%) 0 19,5 8,5
Pretax profit Adj -102 189 21
Net profit Adj -103 189 21
Net profit to shareholders Adj -103 189 21
Net Adj margin (%) -9 12,5 1,6
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 250 560 383
Net financial items -102 -106 -94
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -52 103 -77
Cash flow before change in WC 95 557 212
Change in WC 839 -21 48
Operating cash flow -1 423 337
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -62 -117 -99
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 99 0 0
Free cash flow 37 306 238
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 1137 5 0
Decrease in net IB debt 3116 578 161
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 3064 3089 2921
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 3064 3089 2921
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 349 484 358
Other current assets 3 1 1
Cash and liquid assets 228 233 165
Total assets 3645 3807 3445
Shareholders equity 1056 1257 1278
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1056 1257 1278
Long-term debt 780 505 198
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 1261 1416 1416
Short-term debt 362 332 332
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 186 297 220
Total liabilities and equity 3645 3807 3445
Net IB debt 915 604 365
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 915 604 365
Capital invested 3231 3277 3060
Working capital 167 188 139
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 697 473 473
Net IB debt Adj 915 604 365
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1612 1076 838
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 35,4 40,5 37,2
Capital invested turnover (%) 34,9 46,4 42,6
Capital employed turnover (%) 41,6 70,4 69,2
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 51,4 11,7 12,1
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 86,7 48 28,6
Net debt / market cap (%) 163,8 127,7 77,3
Equity ratio (%) 29 33 37,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 86,7 48 28,6
Current ratio (%) 105,9 114,1 95
EBITDA / net interest (%) 244,9 530,4 407,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 366,5 107,8 95,4
Interest cover (%) 18,2 249,2 118,5
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48
Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48
EPS -2,15 3,95 0,44
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -2,15 3,95 0,44
BVPS 22,12 26,34 26,78
BVPS Adj 22,12 26,34 26,78
Net IB debt / share 19,2 12,6 7,7
Share price 11,7 9,9 9,9
Market cap. (m) 558 473 473
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -6,8 2,5 22,3
EV/sales 1,41 0,71 0,62
EV/EBITDA 6,5 1,9 2,2
EV/EBITA -5371,9 3,7 7,3
EV/EBIT -5371,9 3,7 7,3
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 5,2 64,7 50,4
P/BVPS 0,66 0,38 0,37
P/BVPS Adj 0,66 0,38 0,37
P/E Adj -6,8 2,5 22,3
EV/EBITDA Adj 6,5 1,9 2,2
EV/EBITA Adj -5371,9 3,7 7,3
EV/EBIT Adj -5371,9 3,7 7,3
EV/cap. employed 0,7 0,5 0,5
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 5,5 7,7 7,3
Capex / depreciation 24,9 43,9 37
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 2 3,8 3,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 8,2 8,6 9,2

Equity research

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Media

Concordia Maritime - Interview with CEO Kim Ullman (in Swedish)
Concordia Maritime - Company presentation with CEO Kim Ullman

Main shareholders - Concordia Maritime

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Stena 52.2 % 72.7 % 31 Mar 2020
Bengt Stillström 4.2 % 2.4 % 31 Mar 2020
Avanza Pension 3.1 % 1.8 % 31 Mar 2020
Stig Andersson 2.5 % 1.4 % 31 Mar 2020
Fourton Oy 2.5 % 1.4 % 31 May 2020
Morgan-Åke Åkesson 2.4 % 1.3 % 31 Mar 2020
Traction 2.3 % 1.3 % 31 Mar 2020
Ann Stillström 0.8 % 0.4 % 31 Mar 2020
Stefan Bozzao 0.6 % 0.4 % 31 Mar 2020
Swedbank Robur Fonder 0.6 % 0.3 % 31 May 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Concordia Maritime

Name Quantity Code Date
Henrik Hallin + 10 000 BUY 10 May 2019
Mats Jansson + 9 670 BUY 19 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 6 700 BUY 14 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Helena Levander + 637 BUY 9 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 50 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 10 238 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 1 000 BUY 7 Feb 2018
MATS JANSSON + 6 000 BUY 1 Feb 2018
Gustaf Michael Gunnarsson Löw BUY 31 Jan 2018

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