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Concordia Maritime

Concordia Maritime

International shipping company

Concordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence.

While declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market results in increased day rates, which consequently drives asset values. Increasing net asset values would be supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive dividend yields.

Declining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs. Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and less tanker demand for stockpiling.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 1140 1457 1308
Sales growth (%) 8,3 27,7 -10,2
EBITDA 250 543 393
EBITDA margin (%) 21,9 37,3 30,1
EBIT adj 0 285 135
EBIT adj margin (%) 0 19,6 10,3
Pretax profit -102 181 42
EPS rep -2,15 3,79 0,88
EPS growth (%) 43,7 276,4 -76,8
EPS adj -2,15 3,79 0,88
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 5,6 1,7 1,8
EV/EBIT adj (x) -4664,3 3,3 5,1
P/E (x) -6,8 2,7 11,8
P/E adj (x) -6,8 2,7 11,8
EV/sales (x) 1,2 0,6 0,5
FCF yield (%) 5,2 51,6 50
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 2,8 0,8 0,5
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 1140 1457 1308
COGS -891 -913 -915
Gross profit 250 543 393
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 250 543 393
Depreciation on tangibles -250 -258 -258
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 0 285 135
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 0 285 135
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -102 -104 -93
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -102 181 42
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -103 181 42
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -103 181 42
EPS -2,15 3,79 0,88
EPS Adj -2,15 3,79 0,88
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,3 0 0
Gross margin (%) 21,9 37,3 30,1
EBITDA margin (%) 21,9 37,3 30,1
EBITA margin (%) 0 19,6 10,3
EBIT margin (%) 0 19,6 10,3
Pretax margin (%) -9 12,4 3,2
Net margin (%) -9 12,4 3,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 8,3 27,7 -10,2
EBITDA growth (%) 338,7 117,6 -27,6
EBIT growth (%) 99,8 95167,5 -52,6
Net profit growth (%) 43,7 276,4 -76,8
EPS growth (%) 43,7 276,4 -76,8
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -9,7 15,8 3,4
ROE Adj (%) -9,7 15,8 3,4
ROCE (%) 0,9 15,6 8,7
ROCE Adj(%) 0,9 15,6 8,7
ROIC (%) 0 9,1 4,5
ROIC Adj (%) 0 9,1 4,5
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 250 543 393
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 21,9 37,3 30,1
EBITA Adj 0 285 135
EBITA Adj margin (%) 0 19,6 10,3
EBIT Adj 0 285 135
EBIT Adj margin (%) 0 19,6 10,3
Pretax profit Adj -102 181 42
Net profit Adj -103 181 42
Net profit to shareholders Adj -103 181 42
Net Adj margin (%) -9 12,4 3,2
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 250 543 393
Net financial items -102 -104 -93
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -52 97 -90
Cash flow before change in WC 95 536 210
Change in WC 891 -50 42
Operating cash flow -1 379 342
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -62 -123 -94
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 99 0 0
Free cash flow 37 256 248
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 1137 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 3116 363 159
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 3064 2929 2764
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 3064 2929 2764
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 349 506 375
Other current assets 3 3 3
Cash and liquid assets 228 174 112
Total assets 3645 3612 3255
Shareholders equity 1056 1226 1268
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1056 1226 1268
Long-term debt 620 310 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 1421 1421 1421
Short-term debt 310 310 310
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 238 345 256
Total liabilities and equity 3645 3613 3255
Net IB debt 702 446 198
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 702 446 198
Capital invested 3179 3093 2887
Working capital 115 165 123
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 697 496 496
Net IB debt Adj 702 446 198
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1399 943 694
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 35,4 40,1 38,1
Capital invested turnover (%) 35,2 46,4 43,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 45 76 76,4
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 49,1 9,6 11
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 66,5 36,4 15,6
Net debt / market cap (%) 125,8 89,9 39,8
Equity ratio (%) 29 33,9 39
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 66,5 36,4 15,6
Current ratio (%) 105,9 104,3 86,7
EBITDA / net interest (%) 244,9 520,4 421,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 281,4 82,1 50,3
Interest cover (%) 18,2 252,2 139
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48
Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48
EPS -2,15 3,79 0,88
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -2,15 3,79 0,88
BVPS 22,12 25,7 26,58
BVPS Adj 22,12 25,7 26,58
Net IB debt / share 14,7 9,3 4,1
Share price 11,7 10,4 10,4
Market cap. (m) 558 496 496
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -6,8 2,7 11,8
EV/sales 1,23 0,65 0,53
EV/EBITDA 5,6 1,7 1,8
EV/EBITA -4664,3 3,3 5,1
EV/EBIT -4664,3 3,3 5,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 5,2 51,6 50
P/BVPS 0,66 0,4 0,39
P/BVPS Adj 0,66 0,4 0,39
P/E Adj -6,8 2,7 11,8
EV/EBITDA Adj 5,6 1,7 1,8
EV/EBITA Adj -4664,3 3,3 5,1
EV/EBIT Adj -4664,3 3,3 5,1
EV/cap. employed 0,7 0,5 0,4
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 5,5 8,4 7,2
Capex / depreciation 24,9 47,5 36,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 2 4,2 3,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 8,2 8,8 9,3

Equity research

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Media

Concordia Maritime - Interview with CEO Kim Ullman (in Swedish)
Concordia Maritime - Company presentation with CEO Kim Ullman

Main shareholders - Concordia Maritime

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Stena 52.2 % 72.7 % 31 Dec 2019
Bengt Stillström 4.2 % 2.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Avanza Pension 3.1 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Stig Andersson 2.5 % 1.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Fourton Oy 2.5 % 1.4 % 29 Feb 2020
Traction 2.3 % 1.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Morgan-Åke Åkesson 2.2 % 1.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Ann Stillström 0.8 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 0.7 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Swedbank Robur Fonder 0.6 % 0.3 % 29 Feb 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Concordia Maritime

Name Quantity Code Date
Henrik Hallin + 10 000 BUY 10 May 2019
Mats Jansson + 9 670 BUY 19 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 6 700 BUY 14 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Helena Levander + 637 BUY 9 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 50 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 10 238 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 1 000 BUY 7 Feb 2018
MATS JANSSON + 6 000 BUY 1 Feb 2018
Gustaf Michael Gunnarsson Löw BUY 31 Jan 2018

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