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Concordia Maritime

Concordia Maritime

International shipping company

Concordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence.

While declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market results in increased day rates, which consequently drives asset values. Increasing net asset values would be supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive dividend yields.

Declining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs. Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and less tanker demand for stockpiling.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 1140 1055 907
Sales growth (%) 8,3 -7,5 -14
EBITDA 250 306 205
EBITDA margin (%) 21,9 29 22,6
EBIT adj 0 57 -32
EBIT adj margin (%) 0 5,4 -3,5
Pretax profit -102 -30 -95
EPS rep -2,15 -0,62 -1,99
EPS growth (%) 43,7 71,2 -221,4
EPS adj -2,15 -0,62 -1,99
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 12,3 7,9 11,7
EV/EBIT adj (x) -10194,5 42,4 -75,2
P/E (x) -6,8 -13,5 -4,2
P/E adj (x) -6,8 -13,5 -4,2
EV/sales (x) 2,7 2,3 2,7
FCF yield (%) 5,2 57,1 6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 9,5 6,6 9,8
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 1140 1055 907
COGS -891 -748 -703
Gross profit 250 306 205
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 250 306 205
Depreciation on tangibles -250 -249 -237
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 0 57 -32
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 0 57 -32
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -102 -87 -63
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -102 -30 -95
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -103 -30 -95
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -103 -30 -95
EPS -2,15 -0,62 -1,99
EPS Adj -2,15 -0,62 -1,99
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,3 0 0
Gross margin (%) 21,9 29 22,6
EBITDA margin (%) 21,9 29 22,6
EBITA margin (%) 0 5,4 -3,5
EBIT margin (%) 0 5,4 -3,5
Pretax margin (%) -9 -2,8 -10,5
Net margin (%) -9 -2,8 -10,5
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 8,3 -7,5 -14
EBITDA growth (%) 338,7 22,7 -33,1
EBIT growth (%) 99,8 19153,3 -156
Net profit growth (%) 43,7 71,2 -221,4
EPS growth (%) 43,7 71,2 -221,4
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -9,7 -2,9 -10,4
ROE Adj (%) -9,7 -2,9 -10,4
ROCE (%) 0,7 1,9 -0,7
ROCE Adj(%) 0,7 1,9 -0,7
ROIC (%) 0 1,8 -1,1
ROIC Adj (%) 0 1,8 -1,1
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 250 306 205
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 21,9 29 22,6
EBITA Adj 0 57 -32
EBITA Adj margin (%) 0 5,4 -3,5
EBIT Adj 0 57 -32
EBIT Adj margin (%) 0 5,4 -3,5
Pretax profit Adj -102 -30 -95
Net profit Adj -103 -30 -95
Net profit to shareholders Adj -103 -30 -95
Net Adj margin (%) -9 -2,8 -10,5
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 250 306 205
Net financial items -102 -87 -63
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -52 -44 7
Cash flow before change in WC 95 175 148
Change in WC -96 200 -7
Operating cash flow -1 375 141
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -62 -148 -117
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 99 0 0
Free cash flow 37 227 24
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -806 110 -7
Decrease in net IB debt -769 337 17
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 3064 2834 2714
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 3064 2834 2714
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 349 149 157
Other current assets 3 2 2
Cash and liquid assets 228 154 47
Total assets 3645 3139 2919
Shareholders equity 1056 960 865
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1056 960 865
Long-term debt 2041 1713 1582
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 548 466 472
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 3645 3139 2919
Net IB debt 2362 2024 2007
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 2362 2024 2007
Capital invested 3417 2985 2872
Working capital 353 151 158
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 697 398 398
Net IB debt Adj 2362 2024 2007
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 3058 2422 2405
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 35,4 31,1 30
Capital invested turnover (%) 37,6 33 31
Capital employed turnover (%) 35,4 31,1 30
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 30,9 23,9 17
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 223,7 210,8 232
Net debt / market cap (%) 422,9 508,6 504,2
Equity ratio (%) 29 30,6 29,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 223,7 210,8 232
Current ratio (%) 105,9 65,6 43,5
EBITDA / net interest (%) 244,9 353,1 324,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 946,1 661 980
Interest cover (%) 18,2 68,6 -26,7
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48
Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48
EPS -2,15 -0,62 -1,99
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -2,15 -0,62 -1,99
BVPS 22,12 20,12 18,13
BVPS Adj 22,12 20,12 18,13
Net IB debt / share 49,5 42,4 42,1
Share price 11,7 8,34 8,34
Market cap. (m) 558 398 398
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -6,8 -13,5 -4,2
EV/sales 2,68 2,3 2,65
EV/EBITDA 12,3 7,9 11,7
EV/EBITA -10194,5 42,4 -75,2
EV/EBIT -10194,5 42,4 -75,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 5,2 57,1 6
P/BVPS 0,66 0,41 0,46
P/BVPS Adj 0,66 0,41 0,46
P/E Adj -6,8 -13,5 -4,2
EV/EBITDA Adj 12,3 7,9 11,7
EV/EBITA Adj -10194,5 42,4 -75,2
EV/EBIT Adj -10194,5 42,4 -75,2
EV/cap. employed 0,8 0,8 0,8
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 5,5 14 12,9
Capex / depreciation 24,9 59,4 49,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 2 5,2 4,3
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 8,2 8,8 8,7
N/A N/A N/A

Equity research

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Media

Concordia Maritime - Company presentation with CEO Kim Ullman
Concordia Maritime - Interview with CEO Kim Ullman (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - Concordia Maritime

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Stena 52.2 % 72.7 % 30 Sep 2020
Bengt Stillström 4.2 % 2.4 % 30 Sep 2020
Avanza Pension 2.9 % 1.7 % 30 Sep 2020
Stig Andersson 2.5 % 1.4 % 30 Sep 2020
Morgan-Åke Åkesson 2.5 % 1.4 % 30 Sep 2020
Fourton Oy 2.5 % 1.4 % 30 Sep 2020
Traction 2.3 % 1.3 % 30 Sep 2020
Ann Stillström 0.8 % 0.4 % 30 Sep 2020
Swedbank Robur Fonder 0.6 % 0.3 % 31 Oct 2020
Kungsmuren Förvaltnings AB 0.5 % 0.3 % 30 Sep 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Concordia Maritime

Name Quantity Code Date
Henrik Hallin + 10 000 BUY 10 May 2019
Mats Jansson + 9 670 BUY 19 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 6 700 BUY 14 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Helena Levander + 637 BUY 9 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 50 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 10 238 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 1 000 BUY 7 Feb 2018
MATS JANSSON + 6 000 BUY 1 Feb 2018
Gustaf Michael Gunnarsson Löw BUY 31 Jan 2018

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