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Concordia Maritime

Concordia Maritime

International shipping company

Concordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence.

While declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market results in increased day rates, which consequently drives asset values. Increasing net asset values would be supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive dividend yields.

Declining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs. Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and less tanker demand for stockpiling.

SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 42,4 -40 51,7
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 7 120,2 5,9
Sales 1026 704 956
Sales growth (%) -10 -31,3 35,8
EBITDA 278 17 336
EBITDA margin (%) 27,1 2,5 35,1
EBIT adj 32 -204 115
EBIT adj margin (%) 3,2 -28,9 12
Pretax profit -65 -260 49
EPS rep -1,38 -5,45 1,02
EPS growth (%) 35,5 -293,3 118,7
EPS adj -1,38 -5,45 1,02
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8,4 144,1 7,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 72,2 -12,4 21
P/E (x) -5,9 -1,6 8,6
P/E adj (x) -5,9 -1,6 8,6
EV/sales (x) 2,3 3,6 2,5
FCF yield (%) 42,4 -40 51,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 7 120,2 5,9
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Depreciation and amortisation -245 -221 -221
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj 278 17 336
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 27,1 2,5 35,1
Sales 1026 704 956
COGS -748 -687 -620
Gross profit 278 17 336
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 278 17 336
Depreciation on tangibles -245 -221 -221
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 32 -204 115
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 32 -204 115
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -98 -56 -66
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -65 -260 49
Tax -1 0 0
Net profit -66 -260 49
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -66 -260 49
EPS -1,38 -5,45 1,02
EPS Adj -1,38 -5,45 1,02
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 1,4 0 0
Gross margin (%) 27,1 2,5 35,1
EBITDA margin (%) 27,1 2,5 35,1
EBITA margin (%) 3,2 -28,9 12
EBIT margin (%) 3,2 -28,9 12
Pretax margin (%) -6,4 -36,9 5,1
Net margin (%) -6,4 -36,9 5,1
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) -10 -31,3 35,8
EBITDA growth (%) 11,2 -93,7 1820,6
EBIT growth (%) 10900 -728,7 156,3
Net profit growth (%) 35,5 -293,3 118,7
EPS growth (%) 35,5 -293,3 118,7
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) -7,1 -39,1 8,7
ROE Adj (%) -7,1 -39,1 8,7
ROCE (%) 1,2 -6,9 4,7
ROCE Adj(%) 1,2 -6,9 4,7
ROIC (%) 1,1 -7,6 4,4
ROIC Adj (%) 1,1 -7,6 4,4
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 278 17 336
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 27,1 2,5 35,1
EBITA Adj 32 -204 115
EBITA Adj margin (%) 3,2 -28,9 12
EBIT Adj 32 -204 115
EBIT Adj margin (%) 3,2 -28,9 12
Pretax profit Adj -65 -260 49
Net profit Adj -66 -260 49
Net profit to shareholders Adj -66 -260 49
Net Adj margin (%) -6,4 -36,9 5,1
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Net IB debt excl. leasing 1949 2102 1986
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 702,2 12021,9 591,5
EBITDA 278 17 336
Net financial items -98 -56 -66
Paid tax -1 0 0
Non-cash items -80 -14 100
Cash flow before change in WC 99 -53 370
Change in WC 204 14 -100
Operating cash flow 303 -39 270
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -141 -128 -54
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 3 0 0
Free cash flow 166 -167 216
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 247 14 -100
Decrease in net IB debt 412 -153 116
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 2599 2506 2339
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 2599 2506 2339
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 145 131 231
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 130 82 74
Total assets 2875 2719 2644
Shareholders equity 795 535 584
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 795 535 584
Long-term debt 1628 1747 1523
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 452 438 538
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 2875 2719 2644
Net IB debt 1949 2102 1986
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1949 2102 1986
Capital invested 2744 2637 2570
Working capital 145 131 231
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 390 417 417
Net IB debt Adj 1949 2102 1986
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 2340 2519 2404
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 31,5 25,2 35,7
Capital invested turnover (%) 33,3 26,2 36,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 31,5 25,2 35,7
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 24,3 19,6 18,9
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) 245,2 392,9 340,4
Net debt / market cap (%) 408,7 503,9 476,2
Equity ratio (%) 27,7 19,7 22,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 245,2 392,9 340,4
Current ratio (%) 61 48,7 56,6
EBITDA / net interest (%) 284,4 31,1 508,4
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 702,2 12021,9 591,5
Interest cover (%) 37 -280,8 162,2
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 42,4 -40 51,7
Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48
Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48
EPS -1,38 -5,45 1,02
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -1,38 -5,45 1,02
BVPS 16,66 11,21 12,23
BVPS Adj 16,66 11,21 12,23
Net IB debt / share 40,8 44 41,6
Share price 9,99 8,74 8,74
Market cap. (m) 477 417 417
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E -5,9 -1,6 8,6
EV/sales 2,28 3,58 2,51
EV/EBITDA 8,4 144,1 7,2
EV/EBITA 72,2 -12,4 21
EV/EBIT 72,2 -12,4 21
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 42,4 -40 51,7
P/BVPS 0,49 0,78 0,71
P/BVPS Adj 0,49 0,78 0,71
P/E Adj -5,9 -1,6 8,6
EV/EBITDA Adj 8,4 144,1 7,2
EV/EBITA Adj 72,2 -12,4 21
EV/EBIT Adj 72,2 -12,4 21
EV/cap. employed 0,8 0,9 0,9
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 13,7 18,2 5,7
Capex / depreciation 57,4 57,9 24,6
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 5,4 5,1 2,3
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 9,4 8,8 9,5
N/A N/A N/A

Equity research

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Media

Concordia Maritime - Company presentation with CEO Kim Ullman
Concordia Maritime - Interview with CEO Kim Ullman (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - Concordia Maritime

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Stena 52.2 % 72.7 % 31 Dec 2020
Bengt Stillström 4.2 % 2.4 % 31 Dec 2020
Avanza Pension 3.0 % 1.7 % 31 Dec 2020
Morgan-Åke Åkesson 2.6 % 1.5 % 31 Dec 2020
Stig Andersson 2.5 % 1.4 % 31 Dec 2020
Fourton Oy 2.5 % 1.4 % 31 Jan 2021
Traction 2.3 % 1.3 % 31 Dec 2020
Ann Stillström 0.8 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2020
Kungsmuren Förvaltnings AB 0.5 % 0.3 % 31 Dec 2020
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 0.5 % 0.3 % 31 Dec 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Concordia Maritime

Name Quantity Code Date
Henrik Hallin + 10 000 BUY 10 May 2019
Mats Jansson + 9 670 BUY 19 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 6 700 BUY 14 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Helena Levander + 637 BUY 9 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 50 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 10 238 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 1 000 BUY 7 Feb 2018
MATS JANSSON + 6 000 BUY 1 Feb 2018
Gustaf Michael Gunnarsson Löw BUY 31 Jan 2018

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