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Concordia Maritime

Concordia Maritime

International shipping company

Concordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational competence.

While declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market results in increased day rates, which consequently drives asset values. Increasing net asset values would be supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive dividend yields.

Declining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs. Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and less tanker demand for stockpiling.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 1146 1236 1048
Sales growth (%) 8,9 7,8 -15,2
EBITDA 317 577 388
EBITDA margin (%) 27,7 46,7 37
EBIT adj 70 328 139
EBIT adj margin (%) 6,1 26,5 13,3
Pretax profit -31 237 61
EPS rep -0,64 4,97 1,28
EPS growth (%) 83,2 875,5 -74,2
EPS adj -0,64 4,97 1,28
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 5,3 2,2 2,6
EV/EBIT adj (x) 23,9 3,9 7,2
P/E (x) -22 2,8 11
P/E adj (x) -22 2,8 11
EV/sales (x) 1,5 1 1
FCF yield (%) 22,3 58,3 42,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 3,2 1,1 0,9
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 1146 1236 1048
COGS -829 -659 -660
Gross profit 317 577 388
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 317 577 388
Depreciation on tangibles -247 -248 -248
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 70 328 139
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 70 328 139
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -101 -91 -78
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -31 237 61
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -31 237 61
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -31 237 61
EPS -0,64 4,97 1,28
EPS Adj -0,64 4,97 1,28
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,3 0 0
Gross margin (%) 27,7 46,7 37
EBITDA margin (%) 27,7 46,7 37
EBITA margin (%) 6,1 26,5 13,3
EBIT margin (%) 6,1 26,5 13,3
Pretax margin (%) -2,7 19,2 5,8
Net margin (%) -2,7 19,2 5,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 8,9 7,8 -15,2
EBITDA growth (%) 457,9 81,6 -32,7
EBIT growth (%) 154,1 366,7 -57,5
Net profit growth (%) 83,2 875,5 -74,2
EPS growth (%) 83,2 875,5 -74,2
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -2,8 18,8 4,3
ROE Adj (%) -2,8 18,8 4,3
ROCE (%) 4,2 15,8 7,8
ROCE Adj(%) 4,2 15,8 7,8
ROIC (%) 2,2 8,9 4
ROIC Adj (%) 2,2 8,9 4
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 317 577 388
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 27,7 46,7 37
EBITA Adj 70 328 139
EBITA Adj margin (%) 6,1 26,5 13,3
EBIT Adj 70 328 139
EBIT Adj margin (%) 6,1 26,5 13,3
Pretax profit Adj -31 237 61
Net profit Adj -31 237 61
Net profit to shareholders Adj -31 237 61
Net Adj margin (%) -2,7 19,2 5,8
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 317 577 388
Net financial items -101 -91 -78
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 211 22 -98
Cash flow before change in WC 428 508 212
Change in WC -322 -25 115
Operating cash flow 106 482 327
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -36 -90 -43
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 80 0 0
Free cash flow 150 392 284
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 32 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 1407 414 186
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 3181 3022 2816
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 3181 3022 2816
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 575 601 486
Other current assets 24 24 24
Cash and liquid assets 100 262 252
Total assets 3880 3909 3577
Shareholders equity 1144 1381 1443
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1144 1381 1443
Long-term debt 878 647 352
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 1138 1138 1138
Short-term debt 231 231 231
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 490 512 414
Total liabilities and equity 2968 2795 3880
Net IB debt 1007 615 331
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1007 615 331
Capital invested 3756 3623 3302
Working capital 575 601 486
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 673 673 673
Net IB debt Adj 1007 615 331
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1680 1288 1004
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 34,3 31,7 28
Capital invested turnover (%) 36,3 33,5 30,3
Capital employed turnover (%) 49,4 54,8 48,9
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 36,1 47,6 51,8
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 88,1 44,5 22,9
Net debt / market cap (%) 180,4 91,4 49,1
Equity ratio (%) 29,5 35,3 40,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 88,1 44,5 22,9
Current ratio (%) 97 119,4 118,1
EBITDA / net interest (%) 314,9 636,3 496,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 317,3 106,7 85,3
Interest cover (%) 76 300,2 157,6
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48
Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48
EPS -0,64 4,97 1,28
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -0,64 4,97 1,28
BVPS 23,97 28,94 30,22
BVPS Adj 23,97 28,94 30,22
Net IB debt / share 21,1 12,9 6,9
Share price 11,7 14,1 14,1
Market cap. (m) 558 673 673
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -22 2,8 11
EV/sales 1,47 1,04 0,96
EV/EBITDA 5,3 2,2 2,6
EV/EBITA 23,9 3,9 7,2
EV/EBIT 23,9 3,9 7,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 22,3 58,3 42,2
P/BVPS 0,59 0,49 0,47
P/BVPS Adj 0,59 0,49 0,47
P/E Adj -22 2,8 11
EV/EBITDA Adj 5,3 2,2 2,6
EV/EBITA Adj 23,9 3,9 7,2
EV/EBIT Adj 23,9 3,9 7,2
EV/cap. employed 0,7 0,6 0,5
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 3,1 7,3 4,1
Capex / depreciation 14,4 36,1 17,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 1,1 3 1,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 7,8 8,2 8,8

Equity research

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Media

Concordia Maritime - Interview with CEO Kim Ullman (in Swedish)
Concordia Maritime - Company presentation with CEO Kim Ullman

Main shareholders - Concordia Maritime

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Stena 52.2 % 72.7 % 31 Dec 2019
Bengt Stillström 4.2 % 2.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Avanza Pension 3.1 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Stig Andersson 2.5 % 1.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Fourton Oy 2.5 % 1.4 % 30 Nov 2019
Traction 2.3 % 1.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Morgan-Åke Åkesson 2.2 % 1.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Ann Stillström 0.8 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 0.7 % 0.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Swedbank Robur Fonder 0.6 % 0.3 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Concordia Maritime

Name Quantity Code Date
Henrik Hallin + 10 000 BUY 10 May 2019
Mats Jansson + 9 670 BUY 19 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 6 700 BUY 14 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Helena Levander + 637 BUY 9 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 50 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 10 238 BUY 8 Nov 2018
Mats Jansson + 1 000 BUY 7 Feb 2018
MATS JANSSON + 6 000 BUY 1 Feb 2018

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