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Diös

Properties in northern Sweden

Diös is the largest private property company in northern Sweden and defines its market in terms of ten growing cities from Borlänge in the south to Luleå in the north. The majority of Diös' properties are found in the respective cities' central business districts. Given the size of its portfolio, the company has a very dominant market position in, for example, cities with underlying growth like Östersund, Umeå, Luleå and Sundsvall. The markets that Diös operates in are characterised by relatively low rental rates and high yields.

Generally, there is increased demand for highly efficient and flexible office space, with excellent locations and good transport links. Offices make up around 50% of Diös' rental value so there are opportunities. Moreover, Diös has identified building rights of approximately 100,000 sqm BTA with a total investment in new construction projects of approximately SEK 5,000m. About 50% of these are residential building rights and approximately 50% are commercial building rights.

The main risk for a real estate company is the macro developments in the markets in which it operates. Around 21% of Dios’ rental value is within retail properties, so increased online penetration is a threat to the offline segment. Moreover, Diös has historically acquired property portfolios via rights issues, with dilution as a negative consequence for shareholders. It might become harder to find meaningful acquisitions since Diös dominates the property market in northern Sweden.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Net operating income 1140 1205 1276
NOI margin (%) 63 64,5 65
CEPS Adj 5,98 6,57 7,03
CEPS Adj. growth (%) 1,3 9,9 7
DPS 3 3,2 3,4
EPRA NAVPS 67,6 74,12 81,36
EPS 9,97 7,37 6,25
EPS Adj 9,97 7,37 6,25
P/CEPS Adj. (x) 9,4 12,4 11,6
P/E Adj. (x) 5,7 11 13
P/EPRANAV (x) 0,83 1,1 1
Implicit yield (%) 5,6 4,9 5
div.yield (%) 5,3 3,9 4,2
LTV (%) 53,4 52,6 51,8
Rental Income 1810 1868 1964
Rental growth (%) 5,3 3,2 5,1
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Rental income 1810 1868 1964
Other income 0 0 0
Operating costs -670 -663 -688
Net operating income 1140 1205 1276
NOI margin (%) 63 64,5 65
Value change realized 0 0 0
Value change unrealized 687 261 0
Administration costs -71 -71 -73
All other income & costs 0 0 0
EBIT 1756 1395 1203
Net financial items -175 -162 -159
Value change derivatives 16 0 0
Pretax profit 1597 1232 1044
Deferred profit tax -166 -153 -104
Current tax -90 -88 -99
Net profit 1341 992 841
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 1341 992 841
Other income statement related information 2018 2019 2020
Cash earnings 804 884 945
Tax rate (%) -16 -19,5 -19,5
Net investments 658 1250 1446
Acquisitions N/A N/A N/A
Other investments 0 0 0
Divestments N/A N/A N/A
EPS 9,97 7,37 6,25
CEPS 5,98 6,57 7,03
CEPS adj. 5,98 6,57 7,03
Dividend per share Adj 3 3,2 3,4
Payout ratio of CEPS (%) 50,2 48,7 48,4
Rental growth (%) 5,3 3,2 5,1
NOI growth (%) 5,6 5,7 5,9
CEPS growth (%) 1,3 9,9 7
CEPS adj. growth (%) 1,3 9,9 7
Balance Sheet 2018 2019 2020
Properties 20802 22313 23759
Deferred tax asset 0 0 0
Receivables 201 207 218
Cash and liquid assets 0 0 0
Other assets 54 99 104
Current liabilities 0 0 0
Total assets 21057 22619 24081
Shareholders equity 7839 8642 9400
Minority 0 0 0
Deferred tax 1353 1441 1540
Interest bearing debt 11865 12537 13141
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Derivatives 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 21057 22619 24081
Other balance sheet related information 2018 2019 2020
Net IB debt 11099 11746 12310
Rental area m2 (000) 1464 1464 1464
Rent per m2 1236 1276 1341
Equity ratio (%) 37,2 38,2 39
Loan to value (%) 53,4 52,6 51,8
Net loan to value (%) 57 56,2 55,3
ICR real estate 6 7 8
Interest rate on debt (%) 2 1 1
Occupancy rate (%) 91 91 91
NAV per share 0 0 0
BVPS 58,28 64,24 69,88
EPRA NAV per share 67,6 74,12 81,36
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
Shares outstanding adj. 135 135 135
Share price 56 81,4 81,4
Market cap. (m) 7533 10949 10949
P/E 5,7 11 13
Net IB debt / share 83 87 92
P/CEPS 9,4 12,4 11,6
P/CEPS adj. 9,4 12,4 11,6
EV/EBIT 10,6 16,3 19,3
Implicit yield (%) 5,6 4,9 5
Yield on BV (%) 5,5 5,4 5,4
Dividend yield (%) 5,3 3,9 4,2
P/NAV N/A N/A N/A
P/EPRA NAV 0,83 1,1 1
P/BVPS 0,97 1,27 1,16
EV/NOI 16,38 18,84 18,23

Equity research

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Media

Diös - Interview with CEO Knut Rost (in Swedish)
Diös - Company presentation with CEO Knut Rost (in Swedish)

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Main shareholders - Diös

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
AB Persson Invest 15.4 % 15.4 % 31 Oct 2019
Erik Paulsson & Bolag 10.5 % 10.5 % 31 Oct 2019
Nordstjernan 10.1 % 10.1 % 31 Oct 2019
Pensionskassan SHB Försäkringsförening 6.0 % 6.0 % 31 Oct 2019
Handelsbanken Fonder 3.1 % 3.1 % 31 Oct 2019
Avanza Pension 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Oct 2019
Swedbank Robur Fonder 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Oct 2019
BlackRock 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 Oct 2019
Sten Dybeck, inklusive bolag och familj 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 Oct 2019
SEB Fonder 1.2 % 1.2 % 31 Oct 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Diös

Name Quantity Code Date
Sofie Stark + 2 000 BUY 30 Oct 2019
Rolf Larsson + 500 BUY 29 Oct 2019
Ragnhild Backman + 5 000 BUY 25 Oct 2019
Ragnhild Backman + 5 000 BUY 11 Sep 2019
Knut Rost + 960 BUY 10 Sep 2019
Anders Jörgen Nelson + 1 500 BUY 22 Mar 2019
Ragnhild Maria Backman - 22 140 SELL 5 Mar 2019
Bob Persson + 50 000 BUY 27 Dec 2018
Rolf Larsson + 1 000 BUY 20 Dec 2018
Knut Rost + 2 000 BUY 18 Dec 2018

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