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Humble Group

Humble Group

Humble Group is a Swedish fast-growing FMCG group with the strategy to grow both organically and through acquisitions. Through a reverse listing via Bayn Group in 2020, Humble Group in its current shape was formed. Since then the group has made over 20 acquisitions, and is aiming to become a new FMCG powerhouse consisting of entrepreneur-driven companies. This allows the group to enjoy the perks of small enterprises while still having the large-scale benefits of a big group.

Operating in the FMCG market, and being particularly exposed to the health- and well-being markets, Humble Group naturally sees several market tailwinds aiding its growth. Moreover, Humble is aiming to become an FMCG umbrella powerhouse of entrepreneurs. Hence, the group seems to be well positioned to capitalise on a growing market and to continue consolidate the market both in the Nordics and parts of Europe.

We stress that the group’s history in its current form is not very long. With acquisitions being an integral part of the business, we highlight that Humble potentially could suffer from market decline, increased competition, or price pressure, which could affect the group’s acquisition agenda and its financial performance. Additionally, considering that Humble has a relatively large share of in-house production, this is associated with several risks, such as potential disruptions in the production, machinery breakdown or IT-problems. Furthermore, Humble is exposed to FX fluctuations which could affect both sales and the cost base.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 1512 3782 4210
Sales growth (%) 4646,3 150,2 11,3
EBITDA 119 395 495
EBITDA margin (%) 7,8 10,4 11,8
EBIT adj -235 -101 -1
EBIT adj margin (%) -15,5 -2,7 0
Pretax profit -294 -189 -89
EPS rep -1,16 -0,99 -0,67
EPS growth (%) -181,1 14,7 32,4
EPS adj 0,16 0,86 1,18
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 49,3 14,6 11,1
EV/EBIT adj (x) -24,9 -56,7 -5891,5
P/E (x) -18,2 -21,3 -31,6
P/E adj (x) 132,8 24,6 18
EV/sales (x) 3,9 1,5 1,3
FCF yield (%) -45,2 4,2 4,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 6 1,2 0,4
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -45,2 4,2 4,6
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 8,1 1,3 0,5
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 1512 3782 4210
COGS -1072 -2684 -2930
Gross profit 440 1098 1280
Other operating items -321 -703 -784
EBITDA 119 395 495
Depreciation and amortisation -34 -36 -36
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 84 359 459
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -319 -460 -460
EBIT -235 -101 -1
Net financial items -60 -88 -88
Pretax profit -294 -189 -89
Tax 14 -57 -78
Net profit -281 -246 -167
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -281 -246 -167
EPS -1,16 -0,99 -0,67
EPS Adj 0,16 0,86 1,18
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments -27 -27 -27
Tax rate (%) -4,7 30 87,6
Gross margin (%) 29,1 29 30,4
EBITDA margin (%) 7,8 10,4 11,8
EBITA margin (%) 5,6 9,5 10,9
EBIT margin (%) -15,5 -2,7 0
Pretax margin (%) -19,5 -5 -2,1
Net margin (%) -18,6 -6,5 -4
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 4646,3 150,2 11,3
EBITDA growth (%) 571,6 232,7 25,5
EBIT growth (%) -347,7 56,8 99,1
Net profit growth (%) -454,2 12,2 32,2
EPS growth (%) -181,1 14,7 32,4
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) -21,8 -11,4 -8,6
ROE Adj (%) 3 9,9 15,1
ROCE (%) -11,4 -2,8 0
ROCE Adj(%) 4,2 9,8 13,2
ROIC (%) -10,4 -3,5 -0,1
ROIC Adj (%) -10,4 -3,5 -0,1
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 119 395 495
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 7,8 10,4 11,8
EBITDA lease Adj 91 367 468
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 6 9,7 11,1
EBITA Adj 84 359 459
EBITA Adj margin (%) 5,6 9,5 10,9
EBIT Adj -235 -101 -1
EBIT Adj margin (%) -15,5 -2,7 0
Pretax profit Adj 25 271 371
Net profit Adj 38 214 293
Net profit to shareholders Adj 38 214 293
Net Adj margin (%) 2,5 5,7 7
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 119 395 495
Net financial items -60 -88 -88
Paid tax 1 -57 -78
Non-cash items 360 53 33
Cash flow before change in WC 420 303 362
Change in WC -444 -93 -57
Operating cash flow -24 210 305
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -8 -19 -21
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -19 -38 -42
Acquisitions and disposals -2258 67 0
Free cash flow -2310 220 241
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 1654 33 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items -1001 -53 -33
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 1925 1404 944
Other intangible assets 1556 1593 1635
Tangible fixed assets 313 289 274
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 28 28 28
Fixed assets 3821 3315 2882
Inventories 282 337 371
Receivables 293 348 381
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 414 667 909
Total assets 4810 4667 4543
Shareholders equity 2275 2029 1862
Minority 337 370 370
Total equity 2612 2399 2233
Long-term debt 1042 1042 1042
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 683 683 683
Short-term debt 113 113 113
Accounts payable 86 102 112
Other current liabilities 274 327 360
Total liabilities and equity 4810 4667 4543
Net IB debt 713 460 218
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 713 460 218
Net IB debt excl. leasing 741 488 246
Capital invested 4008 3542 3134
Working capital 216 256 280
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 5109 5256 5267
Net IB debt Adj 741 488 246
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 5850 5743 5514
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 57,1 79,8 91,4
Working capital / sales (%) 6,9 6,2 6,4
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) 27,3 19,2 9,8
Net debt / market cap (%) 12,6 8,7 4,1
Equity ratio (%) 54,3 51,4 49,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 28,4 20,3 11
Current ratio (%) 209,3 249,3 283,8
EBITDA / net interest (%) 198,6 448,4 562,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 601,2 116,5 44,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 810,8 132,8 52,7
Interest cover (%) 140,6 407,5 521,7
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
P/BVPS Adj 14,57 8,41 5,74
Shares outstanding adj. 241 248 248
Fully diluted shares Adj 241 248 248
EPS -1,16 -0,99 -0,67
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,16 0,86 1,18
BVPS 9,44 8,19 7,5
BVPS Adj 1,46 2,52 3,69
Net IB debt / share 3 1,9 0,9
Share price 23,48 21,2 21,2
Market cap. (m) 5657 5256 5267
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E -18,2 -21,3 -31,6
EV/sales 3,87 1,52 1,31
EV/EBITDA 49,3 14,6 11,1
EV/EBITA 69,3 16 12
EV/EBIT -24,9 -56,7 -5891,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -45,2 4,2 4,6
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -45,2 4,2 4,6
P/BVPS 2,25 2,59 2,83
P/E Adj 132,8 24,6 18
EV/EBITDA Adj 49,3 14,6 11,1
EV/EBITA Adj 69,3 16 12
EV/EBIT Adj -24,9 -56,7 -5891,5
EV/cap. employed 1,6 1,6 1,6
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 1,8 1,5 1,5
Capex / depreciation 80,4 157,6 175,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 2,7 6,5 7,7
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 10,9 12,5 13,1

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Noel Abdayem 11.0 % 11.0 % 18 Jan 2022
Håkan Roos (RoosGruppen) 10.2 % 10.2 % 31 Dec 2021
Thomas Petrén 5.0 % 5.0 % 31 Dec 2021
Handelsbanken Fonder 4.4 % 4.4 % 31 Dec 2021
Avanza Pension 3.8 % 3.8 % 31 Dec 2021
Creades AB 2.7 % 2.7 % 30 Sep 2021
Caldas Capital 2.7 % 2.7 % 29 Nov 2021
Simon Petrén 2.4 % 2.4 % 11 Jan 2022
Futur Pension 2.4 % 2.4 % 31 Dec 2021
Tommy Jönsson 2.3 % 2.3 % 30 Sep 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list -

Name Quantity Code Date
Simon Petrén + 4 158 BUY 14 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 116 260 BUY 14 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 84 042 BUY 6 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 8 853 BUY 2 Jul 2021
Johan Lennartsson + 1 000 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Marcus Stenkil + 1 250 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Simon Petrén + 2 092 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 289 785 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 173 915 BUY 28 Jun 2021
Johan Lennartsson + 100 000 BUY 17 Jun 2021

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