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Lagercrantz

Lagercrantz

Supplier of technology in expansive niches

Lagercrantz is a technology trading company group in expansive niches offering value creating technology to corporate customers. The operations are conducted according to a decentralized model with 50+ independent companies divided into 4 divisions, Electronics, Mechatronics, Communications and Niche Products. Acquiring new companies is a central part of the business model. Lagercrantz has an increasing proportion of proprietary products, which enables enhanced control of the value chain and supports higher margins. The share is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm, Mid Cap, since 2001.

The recent years’ export initiatives could improve organic growth more than we currently assume. Increased proportion of proprietary products and acquisitions of product-companies have the potential for further margin expansion.

Poor development in individual subsidiaries, overall weaker market conditions, abrupt competition in a specific niche-area. Inflated acquisitions multiple.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 4228 4429 4633
Sales growth (%) 7,5 4,8 4,6
EBITDA 720 762 801
EBITDA margin (%) 17 17,2 17,3
EBIT adj 506 548 600
EBIT adj margin (%) 12 12,4 12,9
Pretax profit 476 526 584
EPS rep 5,56 6,1 6,72
EPS growth (%) 10,5 9,6 10,3
EPS adj 6,85 7,12 7,75
DPS 2,5 2,5 2,5
EV/EBITDA (x) 17,6 16,1 14,8
EV/EBIT adj (x) 25 22,4 19,8
P/E (x) 30,3 27,6 25
P/E adj (x) 24,5 23,6 21,7
EV/sales (x) 3 2,8 2,6
FCF yield (%) 2,9 4,9 5,1
Dividend yield (%) 1,5 1,5 1,5
Net IB debt/EBITDA 1,7 1,1 0,6
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 4228 4429 4633
COGS -2647 -2764 -2877
Gross profit 1580 1665 1756
Other operating items -860 -903 -954
EBITDA 720 762 801
Depreciation on tangibles -54 -60 -48
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 582 618 669
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation -82 -70 -69
EBIT 500 548 600
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -24 -22 -16
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 476 526 584
Tax -99 -113 -128
Net profit 377 413 455
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 377 413 455
EPS 5,56 6,1 6,72
EPS Adj 6,85 7,12 7,75
Total extraordinary items after tax -6 0 0
Tax rate (%) -20,9 -21,5 -22
Gross margin (%) 37,4 37,6 37,9
EBITDA margin (%) 17 17,2 17,3
EBITA margin (%) 13,8 14 14,4
EBIT margin (%) 11,8 12,4 12,9
Pretax margin (%) 11,3 11,9 12,6
Net margin (%) 8,9 9,3 9,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 7,5 4,8 4,6
EBITDA growth (%) 25,3 5,7 5,2
EBIT growth (%) 10,9 9,6 9,4
Net profit growth (%) 10,5 9,6 10,3
EPS growth (%) 10,5 9,6 10,3
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 23,3 22,3 21,5
ROE Adj (%) 28,7 26 24,8
ROCE (%) 16,7 15,8 16,1
ROCE Adj(%) 19,6 17,8 18
ROIC (%) 14,4 14,8 16,8
ROIC Adj (%) 14,6 14,8 16,8
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 726 762 801
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 17,2 17,2 17,3
EBITA Adj 588 618 669
EBITA Adj margin (%) 13,9 14 14,4
EBIT Adj 506 548 600
EBIT Adj margin (%) 12 12,4 12,9
Pretax profit Adj 564 596 653
Net profit Adj 464 483 525
Net profit to shareholders Adj 464 483 525
Net Adj margin (%) 11 10,9 11,3
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 720 762 801
Net financial items -24 -22 -16
Paid tax -99 -113 -128
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 597 626 657
Change in WC -66 -10 -8
Operating cash flow 624 617 649
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -92 -62 -65
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -201 0 0
Free cash flow 331 555 584
Dividend paid -169 -169 -169
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -423 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt -261 385 415
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 1510 1661 1827
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 745 497 242
Tangible fixed assets 334 364 400
Other fixed assets 14 14 14
Fixed assets 2745 2594 2457
Inventories 580 615 643
Receivables 928 974 1019
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 370 745 1150
Total assets 4623 4929 5270
Shareholders equity 1731 1975 2261
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1731 1975 2261
Long-term debt 1416 1406 1396
Pension debt 67 67 67
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 1267 1339 1405
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 3632 3854 4623
Net IB debt 1255 870 455
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1188 803 388
Capital invested 2986 2844 2715
Working capital 240 250 258
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 11396 11396 11396
Net IB debt Adj 1255 870 455
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 12651 12266 11851
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 99,7 92,7 90,8
Capital invested turnover (%) 154,1 151,9 166,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 141 127,5 124,3
Inventories / sales (%) 13,1 13,5 13,6
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 29,3 29,4 29,6
Working capital / sales (%) 4,9 5,5 5,5
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 72,5 44 20,1
Net debt / market cap (%) 15,6 7,6 4
Equity ratio (%) 37,4 40,1 42,9
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 72,5 44 20,1
Current ratio (%) 139,6 164,8 189,8
EBITDA / net interest (%) 2983,4 3426,3 4995,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 174,2 114,1 56,7
Interest cover (%) 2410 2779,4 4172,1
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 68 68 68
Fully diluted shares Adj 68 68 68
EPS 5,56 6,1 6,72
Dividend per share Adj 2,5 2,5 2,5
EPS Adj 6,85 7,12 7,75
BVPS 25,56 29,16 33,38
BVPS Adj -7,74 -2,71 2,83
Net IB debt / share 18,5 12,8 6,7
Share price 118,49 168,2 168,2
Market cap. (m) 8024 11391 11391
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 30,3 27,6 25
EV/sales 2,99 2,77 2,56
EV/EBITDA 17,6 16,1 14,8
EV/EBITA 21,7 19,9 17,7
EV/EBIT 25,3 22,4 19,8
Dividend yield (%) 1,5 1,5 1,5
FCF yield (%) 2,9 4,9 5,1
P/BVPS 6,58 5,77 5,04
P/BVPS Adj -21,73 -62,13 59,52
P/E Adj 24,5 23,6 21,7
EV/EBITDA Adj 17,4 16,1 14,8
EV/EBITA Adj 21,5 19,9 17,7
EV/EBIT Adj 25 22,4 19,8
EV/cap. employed 3,8 3,4 3,1
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 2,2 1,4 1,4
Capex / depreciation 169,3 103,6 135
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 27,6 17 16,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 16,3 16,4 12

Equity research

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Media

Lagercrantz - Interview with CEO Jörgen Wigh (in Swedish)
Lagercrantz - Company presentation with CEO Jörgen Wigh (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - Lagercrantz

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Anders Börjesson & Tisenhult-Gruppen 5.6 % 28.8 % 31 Jan 2020
SEB Fonder 14.0 % 9.8 % 31 Jan 2020
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.5 % 7.4 % 31 Jan 2020
Didner & Gerge Fonder 8.0 % 5.6 % 31 Jan 2020
Fidelity Investments (FMR) 5.6 % 3.9 % 1 Jan 2020
Handelsbanken Fonder 4.4 % 3.1 % 31 Jan 2020
ODIN Fonder 4.1 % 2.9 % 31 Jan 2020
Lannebo Fonder 3.8 % 2.7 % 31 Jan 2020
Lagercrantz Group AB 2.6 % 1.8 % 31 Jan 2020
Fjärde AP-fonden 2.3 % 1.6 % 31 Jan 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Lagercrantz

Name Quantity Code Date
Jonas Ahlberg - 4 553 SELL 11 Feb 2020
Jonas Ahlberg - 3 822 SELL 10 Feb 2020
Marcus Käld - 1 000 SELL 20 Dec 2019
Lennart Sigvard Olof Sjölund - 5 000 SELL 2 Dec 2019
Lennart Sigvard Olof Sjölund - 4 240 SELL 29 Nov 2019
Lennart Sigvard Olof Sjölund - 560 SELL 28 Nov 2019
Lennart Sigvard Olof Sjölund - 3 200 SELL 27 Nov 2019
Jonas Ahlberg - 34 000 SELL 7 Nov 2019
Per Ikov - 30 000 SELL 7 Nov 2019
Caroline Reuterskiöld - 8 000 SELL 7 Nov 2019

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