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Magnolia Bostad

Leading residential developer

Magnolia is a Swedish residential developer that uses forward funding and has seen high growth in its project portfolio in recent years. Magnolia produces mainly rental apartments and institutions are its main counterparties.

The use of forward funding limits the risks and profits, but allows high production volumes and an attractive risk-adjusted return. With the population growing in all of Magnolia’s operational regions, we believe that housing demand will continue to overshoot supply. That, plus a ramped-up organisation, we believe, points to continued solid growth in the project portfolio.

We believe the limited visibility in terms of actual margins, contract structures and cash conversion is a risk when estimating cash flow going forward. Further risks are defaulting turnkey contractors, increased competition and rising interest rates.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 1055 1330 1166
Sales growth (%) -40,7 26 -12,3
EBITDA 164 472 302
EBITDA margin (%) 15,5 35,5 25,9
EBIT adj 97 307 302
EBIT adj margin (%) 9,2 23,1 25,9
Pretax profit 22 306 137
EPS rep 0,26 5,79 2,82
EPS growth (%) -95,1 2090,6 -51,3
EPS adj -1,51 1,43 2,82
DPS 0 1,4 1,4
EV/EBITDA (x) 19,7 6 9,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) 33,3 9,3 9,4
P/E (x) 138,1 5,2 10,8
P/E adj (x) -24,2 21,2 10,8
EV/sales (x) 3,1 2,1 2,4
FCF yield (%) -2,8 19 6,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 4,6 4,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA 11 3,4 5,2
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 1055 1330 1166
COGS -910 -950 -830
Gross profit 145 380 336
Other operating items 19 92 -33
EBITDA 164 472 302
Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 164 472 302
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 164 472 302
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -142 -166 -165
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 22 306 137
Tax -15 -34 0
Net profit 7 272 137
Minority interest 3 -53 -30
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 10 219 107
EPS 0,26 5,79 2,82
EPS Adj -1,51 1,43 2,82
Total extraordinary items after tax 67 165 0
Tax rate (%) -68,2 -11,1 0
Gross margin (%) 13,7 28,6 28,8
EBITDA margin (%) 15,5 35,5 25,9
EBITA margin (%) 15,5 35,5 25,9
EBIT margin (%) 15,5 35,5 25,9
Pretax margin (%) 2,1 23 11,7
Net margin (%) 0,7 20,4 11,7
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) -40,7 26 -12,3
EBITDA growth (%) -57,4 187,6 -36
EBIT growth (%) -57,4 187,6 -36
Net profit growth (%) -97,5 3783 -49,6
EPS growth (%) -95,1 2090,6 -51,3
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 1 20,9 9
ROE Adj (%) -5,9 5,2 9
ROCE (%) 5,3 13,9 8,5
ROCE Adj(%) 3,2 9,1 8,5
ROIC (%) 2 14,5 9,4
ROIC Adj (%) 1,2 9,4 9,4
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 97 307 302
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 9,2 23,1 25,9
EBITA Adj 97 307 302
EBITA Adj margin (%) 9,2 23,1 25,9
EBIT Adj 97 307 302
EBIT Adj margin (%) 9,2 23,1 25,9
Pretax profit Adj -45 141 137
Net profit Adj -60 107 137
Net profit to shareholders Adj -57 54 107
Net Adj margin (%) -5,7 8 11,7
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 164 472 302
Net financial items -142 -166 -165
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -299 -529 -360
Cash flow before change in WC -277 -223 -223
Change in WC 275 -69 -177
Operating cash flow -18 383 79
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -30 -165 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 9 0 0
Free cash flow -39 218 79
Dividend paid -66 0 -53
Share issues and buybacks 2 0 0
Other non cash items 171 -17 0
Decrease in net IB debt 68 201 26
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 6 6 6
Indefinite intangible assets 1 1 1
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 314 685 685
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 321 692 692
Inventories 1206 923 910
Receivables 1171 1547 1737
Other current assets 513 346 228
Cash and liquid assets 395 575 600
Total assets 3606 4083 4167
Shareholders equity 937 1157 1211
Minority 156 205 235
Total equity 1093 1362 1446
Long-term debt 1914 1971 1971
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 17 51 51
Other long-term liabilities 52 82 82
Short-term debt 278 200 200
Accounts payable 23 47 47
Other current liabilities 228 371 371
Total liabilities and equity 2755 3551 3605
Net IB debt 1797 1596 1571
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1797 1596 1571
Capital invested 2675 3115 3292
Working capital 2354 2423 2600
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 1381 1148 1148
Net IB debt Adj 1797 1596 1571
Market value of minority 156 205 235
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 3228 2848 2853
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 29,5 34,6 28,3
Capital invested turnover (%) 39,7 45,9 36,4
Capital employed turnover (%) 32,3 39 32,6
Inventories / sales (%) 119,4 80,1 78,6
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 1,8 2,6 4
Working capital / sales (%) 236,2 179,6 215,4
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) 164,4 117,2 108,6
Net debt / market cap (%) 85,9 139 136,8
Equity ratio (%) 30,3 33,4 34,7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 164,4 117,2 108,6
Current ratio (%) 621 549,2 562,8
EBITDA / net interest (%) 115,5 284,3 182,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 1095,7 338,4 519,8
Interest cover (%) 114,7 282,1 182,9
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 38 38 38
Fully diluted shares Adj 38 38 38
EPS 0,26 5,79 2,82
Dividend per share Adj 0 1,4 1,4
EPS Adj -1,51 1,43 2,82
BVPS 24,77 30,59 32,01
BVPS Adj 24,62 30,43 31,85
Net IB debt / share 47,5 42,2 41,5
Share price 55,32 30,35 30,35
Market cap. (m) 2092 1148 1148
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 138,1 5,2 10,8
EV/sales 3,06 2,14 2,45
EV/EBITDA 19,7 6 9,4
EV/EBITA 19,7 6 9,4
EV/EBIT 19,7 6 9,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 4,6 4,6
FCF yield (%) -2,8 19 6,8
P/BVPS 1,47 0,99 0,95
P/BVPS Adj 1,48 1 0,95
P/E Adj -24,2 21,2 10,8
EV/EBITDA Adj 33,3 9,3 9,4
EV/EBITA Adj 33,3 9,3 9,4
EV/EBIT Adj 33,3 9,3 9,4
EV/cap. employed 1 0,8 0,8
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2,8 12,4 0
Capex / depreciation N/A N/A N/A
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 9,6 24,1 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

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Main shareholders

Magnolia Bostad

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Fredrik Holmström 56.4 % 56.4 % 30 Apr 2019
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 8.4 % 8.4 % 30 Apr 2019
Andreas Rutili 7.8 % 7.8 % 30 Apr 2019
Svolder 4.4 % 4.4 % 30 Apr 2019
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 4.0 % 4.0 % 30 Apr 2019
Avanza Pension 1.8 % 1.8 % 30 Apr 2019
Martin Dahlin 1.3 % 1.3 % 30 Apr 2019
John Larsson 1.3 % 1.3 % 30 Apr 2019
Rickard Langerfors 0.8 % 0.8 % 30 Apr 2019
Alfred Berg Fonder 0.6 % 0.6 % 30 Apr 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Magnolia Bostad

Name Quantity Code Date
Christina Hambäck + 700 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Christina Hambäck + 153 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Christina Hambäck + 361 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Christina Hambäck + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Christina Hambäck + 86 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Stefan Joel Berg + 12 000 TECKN 12 Mar 2018
Suzana Jakopovic Bossel + 15 000 TECKN 12 Mar 2018
Fredrik Westin + 20 000 TECKN 12 Mar 2018
Rickard Langerfors + 16 000 TECKN 12 Mar 2018
Erik Rune + 87 500 TECKN 12 Mar 2018

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