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Magnolia Bostad

Leading residential developer

Magnolia is a Swedish residential developer that uses forward funding and has seen high growth in its project portfolio in recent years. Magnolia produces mainly rental apartments and institutions are its main counterparties.

The use of forward funding limits the risks and profits, but allows high production volumes and an attractive risk-adjusted return. With the population growing in all of Magnolia’s operational regions, we believe that housing demand will continue to overshoot supply. That, plus a ramped-up organisation, we believe, points to continued solid growth in the project portfolio.

We believe the limited visibility in terms of actual margins, contract structures and cash conversion is a risk when estimating cash flow going forward. Further risks are defaulting turnkey contractors, increased competition and rising interest rates.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 1055 1196 1231
Sales growth (%) -40,7 13,3 2,9
EBITDA 164 317 319
EBITDA margin (%) 14,1 26,5 22,7
EBIT adj 97 317 319
EBIT adj margin (%) 7,8 26,5 22,7
Pretax profit 22 150 152
EPS rep 0,26 2,85 3,15
EPS growth (%) -95,1 976,2 10,9
EPS adj -1,51 2,85 3,15
DPS 0 1,4 1,4
EV/EBITDA (x) 21,7 9,4 10,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 39,4 9,4 10,5
P/E (x) 138,1 11,1 10
P/E adj (x) -24,2 11,1 10
EV/sales (x) 3,1 2,5 2,4
FCF yield (%) -3 8,9 10,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 4,4 4,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA 11 5,3 5,1
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 1055 1196 1231
COGS -910 -811 -879
Gross profit 145 385 352
Other operating items 19 -68 -33
EBITDA 164 317 319
Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 164 317 319
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 164 317 319
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -142 -167 -167
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 22 150 152
Tax -15 0 0
Net profit 7 150 152
Minority interest 3 -42 -33
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 10 108 119
EPS 0,26 2,85 3,15
EPS Adj -1,51 2,85 3,15
Total extraordinary items after tax 67 0 0
Tax rate (%) -68,2 0 0
Gross margin (%) 13,7 32,2 28,6
EBITDA margin (%) 14,1 26,5 22,7
EBITA margin (%) 14,1 26,5 22,7
EBIT margin (%) 14,1 26,5 22,7
Pretax margin (%) 0,7 12,5 9,2
Net margin (%) -0,8 12,5 9,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) -40,7 13,3 2,9
EBITDA growth (%) -57,4 93 0,6
EBIT growth (%) -57,4 93 0,6
Net profit growth (%) -97,5 2042,5 1,3
EPS growth (%) -95,1 976,2 10,9
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 1 10,9 11,1
ROE Adj (%) -5,9 10,9 11,1
ROCE (%) 5,8 10,9 10,8
ROCE Adj(%) 3,5 10,9 10,8
ROIC (%) 2 11,4 10,8
ROIC Adj (%) 1,2 11,4 10,8
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 97 317 319
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 7,8 26,5 22,7
EBITA Adj 97 317 319
EBITA Adj margin (%) 7,8 26,5 22,7
EBIT Adj 97 317 319
EBIT Adj margin (%) 7,8 26,5 22,7
Pretax profit Adj -45 150 152
Net profit Adj -60 150 152
Net profit to shareholders Adj -57 108 119
Net Adj margin (%) -7,1 12,5 9,2
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 164 317 319
Net financial items -142 -167 -167
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -299 -370 -376
Cash flow before change in WC -277 -220 -224
Change in WC 275 -206 -143
Operating cash flow -20 106 127
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -30 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 9 0 0
Free cash flow -41 106 127
Dividend paid -66 0 -53
Share issues and buybacks 2 0 0
Other non cash items 173 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 68 106 74
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 6 6 6
Indefinite intangible assets 1 1 1
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 314 314 314
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 321 321 321
Inventories 1206 1217 1154
Receivables 1171 1537 1744
Other current assets 513 349 231
Cash and liquid assets 395 501 575
Total assets 3606 3925 4024
Shareholders equity 937 1045 1111
Minority 156 198 231
Total equity 1093 1243 1342
Long-term debt 1914 1914 1914
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 17 17 17
Other long-term liabilities 52 52 52
Short-term debt 278 278 278
Accounts payable 23 194 194
Other current liabilities 228 228 228
Total liabilities and equity 2755 3551 3605
Net IB debt 1797 1691 1617
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1797 1691 1617
Capital invested 2675 2881 3025
Working capital 2354 2560 2704
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 1381 1193 1193
Net IB debt Adj 1797 1691 1617
Market value of minority 156 198 231
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 3228 2976 2935
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 29,5 31,8 31
Capital invested turnover (%) 39,7 43 41,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 35,6 41,1 41,8
Inventories / sales (%) 119,4 101,3 96,3
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 1,8 9,1 15,7
Working capital / sales (%) 236,2 205,5 213,8
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) 164,4 136 120,5
Net debt / market cap (%) 85,9 141,7 135,5
Equity ratio (%) 30,3 31,7 33,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 164,4 136 120,5
Current ratio (%) 621 515,3 529,4
EBITDA / net interest (%) 115,5 190 191,2
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 1095,7 534,1 507,5
Interest cover (%) 114,7 190 191,2
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 38 38 38
Fully diluted shares Adj 38 38 38
EPS 0,26 2,85 3,15
Dividend per share Adj 0 1,4 1,4
EPS Adj -1,51 2,85 3,15
BVPS 24,77 27,62 29,37
BVPS Adj 24,62 27,46 29,22
Net IB debt / share 47,5 44,7 42,7
Share price 55,32 31,55 31,55
Market cap. (m) 2092 1193 1193
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 138,1 11,1 10
EV/sales 3,06 2,49 2,38
EV/EBITDA 21,7 9,4 10,5
EV/EBITA 21,7 9,4 10,5
EV/EBIT 21,7 9,4 10,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 4,4 4,4
FCF yield (%) -3 8,9 10,7
P/BVPS 1,47 1,14 1,07
P/BVPS Adj 1,48 1,15 1,08
P/E Adj -24,2 11,1 10
EV/EBITDA Adj 39,4 9,4 10,5
EV/EBITA Adj 39,4 9,4 10,5
EV/EBIT Adj 39,4 9,4 10,5
EV/cap. employed 1,1 1 1
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2,8 0 0
Capex / depreciation N/A N/A N/A
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 9,6 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

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Main shareholders

Magnolia Bostad

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Fredrik Holmström 56.4 % 56.4 % 28 Feb 2019
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 8.4 % 8.4 % 28 Feb 2019
Andreas Rutili 7.8 % 7.8 % 28 Feb 2019
Svolder 4.4 % 4.4 % 28 Feb 2019
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 3.7 % 3.7 % 28 Feb 2019
Avanza Pension 1.9 % 1.9 % 28 Feb 2019
Martin Dahlin 1.5 % 1.5 % 28 Feb 2019
John Larsson 1.3 % 1.3 % 28 Feb 2019
Rickard Langerfors 0.8 % 0.8 % 28 Feb 2019
Jennie Sinclair 0.6 % 0.6 % 28 Feb 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Magnolia Bostad

Name Quantity Code Date
Christina Hambäck + 700 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Christina Hambäck + 153 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Christina Hambäck + 361 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Christina Hambäck + 100 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Christina Hambäck + 86 BUY 13 Nov 2018
Stefan Joel Berg + 12 000 TECKN 12 Mar 2018
Suzana Jakopovic Bossel + 15 000 TECKN 12 Mar 2018
Fredrik Westin + 20 000 TECKN 12 Mar 2018
Rickard Langerfors + 16 000 TECKN 12 Mar 2018
Erik Rune + 87 500 TECKN 12 Mar 2018

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