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MT Højgaard Holding

MT Højgaard Holding

MT Højgaard Holding (MTHH) dates back to 1918, and today is a full-service construction consortium that solves different types of tasks within its four subsidiary companies. The holding company owns four segment companies that are involved in the stages of project development, design and engineering, construction, civil works, renovations and other operations. With ~93% of revenue generated in Denmark, the company employs ~1,800 FTE and is one of the three largest construction companies in Denmark.

We expect the Danish infrastructure development market to be saturated in the mid-term, but in a decentralized competitive market, MTHH has opportunities to win projects. Our pipeline infrastructure model suggests signs of saturation, but MTHH aims to have a steady build-up of its order backlog, which will result in flat revenue growth, but the aim is 2022 4% EBIT margin. This can be achieved by 1) decentralisation, 2) bottomup responsibility, 3) more external collaboration, 4) innovation and 5) ESG principles for small/medium projects.

Threats of project delays and contractor and legal issues would hurt the performance. If competitors begin to pose a larger threat, issues could arise relating to the workforce or project completions, which would challenge the fundamental investment case. Several negative EBIT projects are expected to be completed in the near term. However, after several years of a boom cycle, history shows a bust cycle or period of saturation is pending. Therefore, the company is exposed to a cyclical risk of lower order intake, which has been challenging in the past.

DKKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 6864 5900 5723
Sales growth (%) 1,6 -14 -3
EBITDA 274 323 367
EBITDA margin (%) 4 5,5 6,4
EBIT adj 83 129 178
EBIT adj margin (%) 1,2 2,2 3,1
Pretax profit 24 104 154
EPS rep -2 10,31 15,21
EPS growth (%) 97,3 614,7 47,5
EPS adj 2,49 10,31 15,21
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 3,8 2,3 1,7
EV/EBIT adj (x) 12,5 5,7 3,4
P/E (x) -41,7 7,5 5,1
P/E adj (x) 33,5 7,5 5,1
EV/sales (x) 0,2 0,1 0,1
FCF yield (%) 2,6 87 27
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 2 1 0,6
DKKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 6864 5900 5723
COGS -6410 -5480 -5255
Gross profit 454 420 468
Other operating items -179 -97 -101
EBITDA 274 323 367
Depreciation on tangibles -87 -75 -73
Depreciation on intangibles -52 -45 -43
EBITA 48 129 178
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 48 129 178
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -24 -24 -24
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 24 104 154
Tax -40 -24 -35
Net profit -16 80 118
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -16 80 118
EPS -2 10,31 15,21
EPS Adj 2,49 10,31 15,21
Total extraordinary items after tax -35 0 0
Tax rate (%) -165,3 -23 -23
Gross margin (%) 6,6 7,1 8,2
EBITDA margin (%) 4 5,5 6,4
EBITA margin (%) 0,7 2,2 3,1
EBIT margin (%) 0,7 2,2 3,1
Pretax margin (%) 0,3 1,8 2,7
Net margin (%) -0,2 1,4 2,1
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 1,6 -14 -3
EBITDA growth (%) 162 17,8 13,5
EBIT growth (%) 108,8 168,4 38,5
Net profit growth (%) 97,3 614,7 47,5
EPS growth (%) 97,3 614,7 47,5
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) -2,8 10,2 13,4
ROE Adj (%) 3,4 10,2 13,4
ROCE (%) 4,7 8,8 11,4
ROCE Adj(%) 7,9 8,8 11,4
ROIC (%) -2,5 6,3 9,1
ROIC Adj (%) -4,4 6,3 9,1
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 309 323 367
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 4,5 5,5 6,4
EBITA Adj 83 129 178
EBITA Adj margin (%) 1,2 2,2 3,1
EBIT Adj 83 129 178
EBIT Adj margin (%) 1,2 2,2 3,1
Pretax profit Adj 59 104 154
Net profit Adj 19 80 118
Net profit to shareholders Adj 19 80 118
Net Adj margin (%) 0,3 1,4 2,1
DKKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 274 323 367
Net financial items -24 -24 -24
Paid tax -40 -24 -35
Non-cash items 20 20 40
Cash flow before change in WC 231 295 347
Change in WC -465 201 32
Operating cash flow 178 496 379
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -143 -123 -119
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -26 -101 -98
Acquisitions and disposals 8 250 0
Free cash flow 17 522 162
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -51 -290 -79
Decrease in net IB debt -430 232 83
Balance Sheet (DKKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 121 121 121
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 159 216 270
Tangible fixed assets 472 520 566
Other fixed assets 322 342 382
Fixed assets 1664 1713 1781
Inventories 466 419 406
Receivables 1865 1566 1519
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 140 372 455
Total assets 4135 4069 4160
Shareholders equity 745 825 944
Minority 14 14 14
Total equity 759 840 958
Long-term debt 429 429 429
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 46 46 46
Other long-term liabilities 286 286 286
Capital invested 1642 1490 1526
Working capital -22 -223 -255
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 650 600 600
Net IB debt Adj 550 318 235
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -165 -185 -224
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1035 733 611
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 173,1 143,8 139,1
Capital invested turnover (%) 559,4 376,7 379,5
Capital employed turnover (%) 631,9 396,1 360,2
Inventories / sales (%) 7,1 7,5 7,2
Customer advances / sales (%) 10,2 11,4 10,4
Payables / sales (%) 5,3 5,4 5,4
Working capital / sales (%) -3,7 -2,1 -4,2
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) 72,4 37,9 24,6
Net debt / market cap (%) 101,2 53 39,3
Equity ratio (%) 18,4 20,6 23
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 72,4 37,9 24,6
Current ratio (%) 94,5 95,4 97,5
EBITDA / net interest (%) 1142,5 1329,7 1509,4
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 200,6 98,4 64,2
Interest cover (%) 187,5 482 663,3
Short-term debt 261 261 261
Accounts payable 322 312 303
Other current liabilities 2032 1895 1877
Total liabilities and equity 4135 4069 4160
Net IB debt 550 318 235
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 550 318 235
DKKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 8 8 8
Fully diluted shares Adj 8 8 8
EPS -2 10,31 15,21
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 2,49 10,31 15,21
BVPS 95,66 105,97 121,18
BVPS Adj 59,6 62,7 70,92
Net IB debt / share 70,6 40,8 30,2
Share price 69,82 77 77
Market cap. (m) 544 600 600
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E -41,7 7,5 5,1
EV/sales 0,15 0,12 0,11
EV/EBITDA 3,8 2,3 1,7
EV/EBITA 21,6 5,7 3,4
EV/EBIT 21,6 5,7 3,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 2,6 87 27
P/BVPS 0,87 0,73 0,64
P/BVPS Adj 1,4 1,23 1,09
P/E Adj 33,5 7,5 5,1
EV/EBITDA Adj 3,3 2,3 1,7
EV/EBITA Adj 12,5 5,7 3,4
EV/EBIT Adj 12,5 5,7 3,4
EV/cap. employed 0,7 0,5 0,4
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 2,5 3,8 3,8
Capex / depreciation 121,4 187 187
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 30,3 23,7 21,1
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 16,2 46,7 36,2
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 32,6 20,7 16
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 18,5 14,4 12,9

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Main shareholders - MT Højgaard Holding

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Knud Højgaards Fond 37.1 % 37.1 % 8 Apr 2019
Emtf Holding P/S 10.5 % 10.5 % 8 Apr 2019
Ejnar og Meta Thorsens Fond 9.9 % 9.9 % 8 Apr 2019
Chr. Augustinus Fabrikker A/S 5.2 % 5.2 % 8 Apr 2019
Nordea Fonder 4.9 % 4.9 % 7 Feb 2020
Fundamental Fondsmæglerselskab A/S 1.5 % 1.5 % 30 Nov 2019
BIL Danmark 0.8 % 0.8 % 30 Nov 2019
Morten Hansen 0.5 % 0.5 % 5 Mar 2020
Sydinvest 0.5 % 0.5 % 29 Feb 2020
Fourton Oy 0.3 % 0.3 % 31 Jan 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB