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North Media

North Media

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Leading print ad distributor

North Media’s history dates back to 1965, when the distribution of unaddressed printed advertisements and newspapers was its main activity. The company has since diversified its product offering to include advertisement-funded internet distribution activities. North Media is the only media company listed on the OMX Copenhagen Stock Exchange. It operates three segments: FK Distribution, North Media Online and BEKEY.

Offline media remains popular in Denmark, with ~75% of Danish households receiving it. Because the number of supermarkets is declining, the industry demands tailored marketing solutions, and North Media offers a strong distribution platform. We believe that the company can therefore leverage its position to increase prices. In addition to its strong offline position, North Media is also expanding its digital efforts, where good expansion opportunities exist.

There are three main risks to the business: 1) the implementation of regulations against physical advertisements and/or an increased negative perception of offline advertisements, 2) increased penetration of online marketing from competitors and its market share versus print media, and 3) difficulties finding growth opportunities in the three smaller segments of the company.

Financials

DKKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 1025 1042 1075
Sales growth (%) -1,9 1,6 3,2
EBITDA 288 268 279
EBITDA margin (%) 28,1 25,7 26
EBIT adj 238 238 248
EBIT adj margin (%) 23,3 22,8 23,1
Pretax profit 322 251 290
EPS rep 14,01 10,93 12,61
EPS growth (%) -18,6 -22 15,4
EPS adj 10,25 10,09 10,6
DPS 5 5 5
EV/EBITDA (x) 3,3 2,7 1,7
EV/EBIT adj (x) 3,9 3,1 1,9
P/E (x) 7,4 9,5 8,2
P/E adj (x) 10,2 10,3 9,8
EV/sales (x) 0,9 0,7 0,4
FCF yield (%) 10 10,1 10,2
Dividend yield (%) 4,8 4,8 4,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA -3,1 -4,2 -4,9
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 10 10,1 10,2
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -3,1 -4,2 -4,9
DKKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 1025 1042 1075
COGS -400 -423 -434
Gross profit 625 619 641
Other operating items -337 -351 -361
EBITDA 288 268 279
Depreciation on tangibles -28 -29 -30
Depreciation on intangibles -2 -2 -2
EBITA 238 238 248
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 238 238 248
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -5 -5 -5
Associated income -1 -1 -1
Other EO items 40 43 46
Pretax profit 322 251 290
Tax -71 -55 -64
Net profit 252 196 226
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 252 196 226
EPS 14,01 10,93 12,61
EPS Adj 10,25 10,09 10,6
Total extraordinary items after tax 67,6 15 36,1
Tax rate (%) -21,9 -21,9 -21,9
Gross margin (%) 61 59,4 59,6
EBITDA margin (%) 28,1 25,7 26
EBITA margin (%) 23,3 22,8 23,1
EBIT margin (%) 23,3 22,8 23,1
Pretax margin (%) 31,5 24,2 27,1
Net margin (%) 24,6 18,9 21,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) -1,9 1,6 3,2
EBITDA growth (%) 6,5 -7 4,4
EBIT growth (%) -0,8 -0,3 4,5
Net profit growth (%) -17 -22 15,4
EPS growth (%) -18,6 -22 15,4
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 25 15,9 15,6
ROE Adj (%) 18,3 14,7 13,1
ROCE (%) 28,9 18,8 18,7
ROCE Adj(%) 20,9 17,4 15,7
ROIC (%) 69,7 76,6 85
ROIC Adj (%) 69,7 76,6 85
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 288 268 279
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 28,1 25,7 26
EBITA Adj 238 238 248
EBITA Adj margin (%) 23,3 22,8 23,1
EBIT Adj 238 238 248
EBIT Adj margin (%) 23,3 22,8 23,1
Pretax profit Adj 232 231 242
Net profit Adj 184 181 190
Net profit to shareholders Adj 184 181 190
Net Adj margin (%) 18,1 17,5 17,8
Depreciation and amortisation -50 -30 -31
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj 288 268 279
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 28,1 25,7 26
Leasing payments 0 0 0
DKKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 288 268 279
Net financial items -5 -5 -5
Paid tax -71 -55 -64
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 212 207 210
Change in WC -7 -1 -1
Operating cash flow 205 207 209
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -16 -16 -17
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -2 -2 -2
Free cash flow 187 189 191
Dividend paid 5 5 5
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 99 22 50
Decrease in net IB debt 236 245 257
Balance Sheet (DKKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 39 39 39
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 8 7 5
Tangible fixed assets 206 194 181
Other fixed assets 77 76 75
Fixed assets 329 315 299
Inventories 4 4 5
Receivables 81 82 85
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 1030 1245 1490
Total assets 1444 1646 1878
Shareholders equity 1135 1336 1567
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1135 1336 1567
Long-term debt 118 118 118
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 11 11 11
Other long-term liabilities 6 6 6
Short-term debt 8 8 8
Accounts payable 42 42 44
Other current liabilities 123 123 124
Total liabilities and equity 1444 1646 1878
Net IB debt -903 -1118 -1363
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -903 -1118 -1363
Capital invested 249 235 221
Working capital -80 -80 -78
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 1867 1867 1867
Net IB debt Adj -903 -1118 -1363
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -24 -23 -22
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 940 726 482
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 77,9 67,4 61
Capital invested turnover (%) 368,7 400 436,2
Capital employed turnover (%) 91,4 78,1 68,5
Inventories / sales (%) 0,4 0,4 0,4
Customer advances / sales (%) 0,9 0,9 0,9
Payables / sales (%) 4,2 4 4
Working capital / sales (%) -8,1 -7,7 -7,3
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -79,6 -83,7 -87
Net debt / market cap (%) -46,2 -59,9 -73
Equity ratio (%) 78,6 81,2 83,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -79,6 -83,7 -87
Current ratio (%) 643,1 764,2 898
EBITDA / net interest (%) 5618,2 5138,2 5198,2
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -313,7 -417,7 -488
Interest cover (%) 4568,9 4480,8 4539,7
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 7 6 4
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 77 76 75
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 18 18 18
Net IB debt excl. leasing -903 -1118 -1363
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -313,7 -417,7 -488
DKKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Shares outstanding adj. 18 18 18
Fully diluted shares Adj 18 18 18
EPS 14,01 10,93 12,61
Dividend per share Adj 5 5 5
EPS Adj 10,25 10,09 10,6
BVPS 63,22 74,39 87,25
BVPS Adj 60,63 71,9 84,86
Net IB debt / share -50,3 -62,3 -75,9
Share price 108,97 104 104
Market cap. (m) 1957 1867 1867
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 7,4 9,5 8,2
EV/sales 0,92 0,7 0,45
EV/EBITDA 3,3 2,7 1,7
EV/EBITA 3,9 3,1 1,9
EV/EBIT 3,9 3,1 1,9
Dividend yield (%) 4,8 4,8 4,8
FCF yield (%) 10 10,1 10,2
P/BVPS 1,65 1,4 1,19
P/BVPS Adj 1,72 1,45 1,23
P/E Adj 10,2 10,3 9,8
EV/EBITDA Adj 3,3 2,7 1,7
EV/EBITA Adj 3,9 3,1 1,9
EV/EBIT Adj 3,9 3,1 1,9
EV/cap. employed 0,7 0,5 0,3
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 1,6 1,6 1,6
Capex / depreciation 32,4 54,3 54,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 7,8 8,4 9,3
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 38 30 44,8
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 22,7 14,7 16,2
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 10 10,1 10,2

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Main shareholders - North Media

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Richard Bunck 55.7 % 55.7 % 31 Dec 2020
North Media A/S 9.7 % 9.7 % 5 Mar 2021
Olav W. Hansen 5.0 % 5.0 % 18 Feb 2020
eQ Asset Management Oy 2.0 % 2.0 % 31 Dec 2021
Lærernes Pension 1.8 % 1.8 % 30 Jun 2021
Fundamental Fondsmæglerselskab A/S 1.6 % 1.6 % 30 Sep 2021
Gudme Raaschou Asset Management 1.0 % 1.0 % 30 Sep 2021
Herald Investment Management 0.9 % 0.9 % 30 Jun 2021
Kåre Stausø Wigh 0.5 % 0.5 % 22 Feb 2021
Dimensional Fund Advisors 0.3 % 0.3 % 30 Nov 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB