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North Media

North Media

Leading print ad distributor

North Media’s history dates back to 1965, when the distribution of unaddressed printed advertisements and newspapers was its main activity. The company has since diversified its product offering to include advertisement-funded internet distribution activities. North Media is the only media company listed on the OMX Copenhagen Stock Exchange. It operates three segments: FK Distribution, North Media Online and BEKEY.

Offline media remains popular in Denmark, with ~75% of Danish households receiving it. Because the number of supermarkets is declining, the industry demands tailored marketing solutions, and North Media offers a strong distribution platform. We believe that the company can therefore leverage its position to increase prices. In addition to its strong offline position, North Media is also expanding its digital efforts, where good expansion opportunities exist.

There are three main risks to the business: 1) the implementation of regulations against physical advertisements and/or an increased negative perception of offline advertisements, 2) increased penetration of online marketing from competitors and its market share versus print media, and 3) difficulties finding growth opportunities in the three smaller segments of the company.

DKKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 1045 1039 1068
Sales growth (%) -7,5 -0,7 2,8
EBITDA 270 292 303
EBITDA margin (%) 25,9 28,1 28,4
EBIT adj 240 262 272
EBIT adj margin (%) 23 25,2 25,5
Pretax profit 388 296 309
EPS rep 17,22 12,87 13,44
EPS growth (%) 52 -25,3 4,5
EPS adj 10,42 11,18 11,63
DPS 5 5 5
EV/EBITDA (x) 2,9 4,6 3,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 3,3 5,1 3,9
P/E (x) 4,6 9,6 9,2
P/E adj (x) 7,7 11,1 10,6
EV/sales (x) 0,8 1,3 1
FCF yield (%) 12,3 8,8 9,5
Dividend yield (%) 6,3 4 4
Net IB debt/EBITDA -2,3 -3 -3,7
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 12,3 8,8 9,5
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -2,3 -3 -3,7
DKKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 1045 1039 1068
COGS -426 -405 -414
Gross profit 620 633 653
Other operating items -349 -342 -350
EBITDA 270 292 303
Depreciation on tangibles -29 -28 -29
Depreciation on intangibles -2 -2 -2
EBITA 240 262 272
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 240 262 272
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -6 -5 -5
Associated income -1 -1 -1
Other EO items 154 40 43
Pretax profit 388 296 309
Tax -85 -65 -68
Net profit 303 231 241
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 6 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 309 231 241
EPS 17,22 12,87 13,44
EPS Adj 10,42 11,18 11,63
Total extraordinary items after tax 115,8 30,4 32,5
Tax rate (%) -21,9 -21,9 -21,9
Gross margin (%) 59,3 61 61,2
EBITDA margin (%) 25,9 28,1 28,4
EBITA margin (%) 23 25,2 25,5
EBIT margin (%) 23 25,2 25,5
Pretax margin (%) 37,2 28,6 29,1
Net margin (%) 29,1 22,3 22,7
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) -7,5 -0,7 2,8
EBITDA growth (%) 41,9 7,9 3,9
EBIT growth (%) 49,8 9 4
Net profit growth (%) 48,8 -23,7 4,5
EPS growth (%) 52 -25,3 4,5
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) 39,9 23,2 19,5
ROE Adj (%) 24,1 20,1 16,9
ROCE (%) 43,5 26,8 23,1
ROCE Adj(%) 26,4 23,2 19,9
ROIC (%) 60,2 73,8 81
ROIC Adj (%) 60,2 73,8 81
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 270 292 303
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 25,9 28,1 28,4
EBITA Adj 240 262 272
EBITA Adj margin (%) 23 25,2 25,5
EBIT Adj 240 262 272
EBIT Adj margin (%) 23 25,2 25,5
Pretax profit Adj 234 255 266
Net profit Adj 187 201 209
Net profit to shareholders Adj 187 201 209
Net Adj margin (%) 18 19,4 19,7
Depreciation and amortisation -30 -30 -31
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj 270 292 303
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 25,9 28,1 28,4
Leasing payments 0 0 0
DKKm 2020 2021e 2022e
EBITDA 270 292 303
Net financial items -6 -5 -5
Paid tax -85 -65 -68
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 180 222 230
Change in WC 15 -7 -1
Operating cash flow 195 214 229
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -14 -16 -17
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -4 -2 -2
Free cash flow 177 196 210
Dividend paid 72 5 5
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -6 49 45
Decrease in net IB debt 262 236 245
Balance Sheet (DKKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 39 39 39
Indefinite intangible assets 7 0 0
Definite intangible assets 10 8 7
Tangible fixed assets 237 225 212
Other fixed assets 78 77 76
Fixed assets 371 349 334
Inventories 4 4 5
Receivables 76 82 84
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 739 989 1249
Total assets 1189 1424 1672
Shareholders equity 879 1115 1360
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 879 1115 1360
Long-term debt 118 118 118
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 11 11 11
Other long-term liabilities 6 6 6
Short-term debt 8 8 8
Accounts payable 43 42 44
Other current liabilities 123 123 124
Total liabilities and equity 1189 1424 1672
Net IB debt -613 -863 -1123
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -613 -863 -1123
Capital invested 284 270 255
Working capital -87 -80 -79
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 1433 2219 2219
Net IB debt Adj -613 -863 -1123
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -25 -24 -23
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 795 1332 1073
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 96,9 79,5 69
Capital invested turnover (%) 335,4 368,7 400
Capital employed turnover (%) 115,5 91,4 78,1
Inventories / sales (%) 0,4 0,4 0,4
Customer advances / sales (%) 0,9 0,9 0,9
Payables / sales (%) 4,1 4,2 4
Working capital / sales (%) -6,5 -8 -7,4
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) -69,7 -77,4 -82,5
Net debt / market cap (%) -59,1 -38,9 -50,6
Equity ratio (%) 73,9 78,2 81,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -69,7 -77,4 -82,5
Current ratio (%) 469,4 617,8 762,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) 4916,4 5618,2 5678,2
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -226,5 -295,6 -370,4
Interest cover (%) 4291,1 4952,2 5011,1
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 17 8 7
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 78 77 76
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 18 18 18
Net IB debt excl. leasing -613 -863 -1123
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -226,5 -295,6 -370,4
DKKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Shares outstanding adj. 18 18 18
Fully diluted shares Adj 18 18 18
EPS 17,22 12,87 13,44
Dividend per share Adj 5 5 5
EPS Adj 10,42 11,18 11,63
BVPS 48,96 62,07 75,76
BVPS Adj 46,22 59,43 73,21
Net IB debt / share -34,1 -48 -62,5
Share price 57,71 123,6 123,6
Market cap. (m) 1036 2219 2219
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E 4,6 9,6 9,2
EV/sales 0,76 1,28 1,01
EV/EBITDA 2,9 4,6 3,5
EV/EBITA 3,3 5,1 3,9
EV/EBIT 3,3 5,1 3,9
Dividend yield (%) 6,3 4 4
FCF yield (%) 12,3 8,8 9,5
P/BVPS 1,63 1,99 1,63
P/BVPS Adj 1,73 2,08 1,69
P/E Adj 7,7 11,1 10,6
EV/EBITDA Adj 2,9 4,6 3,5
EV/EBITA Adj 3,3 5,1 3,9
EV/EBIT Adj 3,3 5,1 3,9
EV/cap. employed 0,8 1,1 0,7
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 1,4 1,6 1,6
Capex / depreciation 47,4 54,3 54,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 6 7,3 7,9
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 16,8 20 25,9
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 12 12,6 13,7
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 12,3 8,8 9,5

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Main shareholders - North Media

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Richard Bunck 55.7 % 55.7 % 31 Dec 2020
North Media A/S 9.7 % 9.7 % 5 Mar 2021
Olav W. Hansen 5.0 % 5.0 % 18 Feb 2020
eQ Asset Management Oy 2.0 % 2.0 % 31 Aug 2021
Lærernes Pension 1.7 % 1.7 % 31 Dec 2020
Fundamental Fondsmæglerselskab A/S 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 May 2021
Gudme Raaschou Asset Management 1.0 % 1.0 % 31 May 2021
Herald Investment Management 0.9 % 0.9 % 31 Mar 2021
Kåre Stausø Wigh 0.5 % 0.5 % 22 Feb 2021
BIL Danmark 0.3 % 0.3 % 31 Oct 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB