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Petrolia Noco

Petrolia Noco

Petrolia Noco is an NCS oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company. Its primary activity in the oil and gas life cycle is the exploration phase, in particular in near-field exploration, with the Tampen area in the North Sea being defined as the core focus.

Value uplift from exploration success and monetisation of the Dugong discovery.

The main risk in the case is related to exploration success in its drilling programme, as well as successfully maturing the Dugong discovery. Other risks relate to funding requirements and limited liquidity in the share.

NOKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 4 8 10
Sales growth (%) -79,9 95,7 26,8
EBITDA -74 -223 -119
EBITDA margin (%) -1907,2 -2931,4 -1227,7
EBIT adj -79 -228 -121
EBIT adj margin (%) -2019,5 -2985,6 -1248,3
Pretax profit -87 -239 -138
EPS rep -0,2 -0,36 -0,21
EPS growth (%) -9,2 -78,8 42,6
EPS adj -0,2 -0,36 -0,21
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -5,9 -2,1 -4,3
EV/EBIT adj (x) -5,5 -2,1 -4,2
P/E (x) -14,9 -6,4 -11,1
P/E adj (x) -14,9 -6,4 -11,1
EV/sales (x) 111,7 61,9 52,8
FCF yield (%) -0,6 -43,1 -11,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,5 -0,6 -1,5
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -0,6 -43,1 -11,5
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0,5 -0,6 -1,5
NOKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 4 8 10
COGS -78 -231 -128
Gross profit -74 -223 -119
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA -74 -223 -119
Depreciation and amortisation -4 -4 -2
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -79 -228 -121
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -79 -228 -121
Net financial items -8 -11 -17
Pretax profit -87 -239 -138
Tax 60 186 108
Net profit -27 -52 -30
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -27 -52 -30
EPS -0,2 -0,36 -0,21
EPS Adj -0,2 -0,36 -0,21
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -68,9 -78,1 -78,2
Gross margin (%) -1907,2 -2931,4 -1227,7
EBITDA margin (%) -1907,2 -2931,4 -1227,7
EBITA margin (%) -2019,5 -2985,6 -1248,3
EBIT margin (%) -2019,5 -2985,6 -1248,3
Pretax margin (%) -2223,1 -3131,3 -1424,6
Net margin (%) -691 -686,7 -310,7
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) -79,9 95,7 26,8
EBITDA growth (%) 12,7 -200,9 46,9
EBIT growth (%) 11 -189,4 47
Net profit growth (%) -19,8 -94,5 42,6
EPS growth (%) -9,2 -78,8 42,6
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) -78,1 -150,9 -237,1
ROE Adj (%) -78,1 -150,9 -237,1
ROCE (%) -72 -135 -67,5
ROCE Adj(%) -72 -135 -67,5
ROIC (%) -22,3 -24 -10,6
ROIC Adj (%) -22,3 -24 -10,6
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj -74 -223 -119
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -1907,2 -2931,4 -1227,7
EBITDA lease Adj -74 -223 -119
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) -1907,2 -2931,4 -1227,7
EBITA Adj -79 -228 -121
EBITA Adj margin (%) -2019,5 -2985,6 -1248,3
EBIT Adj -79 -228 -121
EBIT Adj margin (%) -2019,5 -2985,6 -1248,3
Pretax profit Adj -87 -239 -138
Net profit Adj -27 -52 -30
Net profit to shareholders Adj -27 -52 -30
Net Adj margin (%) -691 -686,7 -310,7
NOKm 2020 2021e 2022e
EBITDA -74 -223 -119
Net financial items -8 -11 -17
Paid tax 57 200 141
Non-cash items 36 -59 0
Cash flow before change in WC 10 -93 5
Change in WC 57 209 86
Operating cash flow 67 116 91
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -69 -260 -130
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow -2 -144 -38
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 41 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items 0 0 0
Balance Sheet (NOKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 8 5 17
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 74 194 223
Fixed assets 82 199 240
Inventories 30 52 52
Receivables 0 0 0
Other current assets 42 118 -23
Cash and liquid assets 18 73 -59
Total assets 171 441 210
Shareholders equity 42 28 -2
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 42 28 -2
Long-term debt 55 213 119
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 41 133 25
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 3 19 19
Other current liabilities 30 48 48
Total liabilities and equity 171 441 210
Net IB debt 35 138 177
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 35 138 177
Net IB debt excl. leasing 35 138 177
Capital invested 118 299 200
Working capital 38 102 -39
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 400 334 334
Net IB debt Adj 35 138 177
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 435 472 510
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 2,5 2,5 3
Working capital / sales (%) 1408,2 917,6 327
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) 83,5 499,1 -7508,6
Net debt / market cap (%) 20,8 41,4 52,9
Equity ratio (%) 24,3 6,3 -1,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 83,5 499,1 -7508,6
Current ratio (%) 264,4 358,6 -44,4
EBITDA / net interest (%) -937 -2011,5 -696,2
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -46,8 -61,8 -148,8
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -46,8 -61,8 -148,8
Interest cover (%) -992,2 -2048,7 -707,8
NOKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Shares outstanding adj. 133 145 145
Fully diluted shares Adj 133 145 145
EPS -0,2 -0,36 -0,21
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -0,2 -0,36 -0,21
BVPS 0,31 0,19 -0,02
BVPS Adj 0,31 0,19 -0,02
Net IB debt / share 0,3 1 1,2
Share price 1,25 2,3 2,3
Market cap. (m) 167 334 334
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E -14,9 -6,4 -11,1
EV/sales 111,66 61,88 52,79
EV/EBITDA -5,9 -2,1 -4,3
EV/EBITA -5,5 -2,1 -4,2
EV/EBIT -5,5 -2,1 -4,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -0,6 -43,1 -11,5
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -0,6 -43,1 -11,5
P/BVPS 9,6 12,06 -141,86
P/BVPS Adj 9,6 12,06 -141,86
P/E Adj -14,9 -6,4 -11,1
EV/EBITDA Adj -5,9 -2,1 -4,3
EV/EBITA Adj -5,5 -2,1 -4,2
EV/EBIT Adj -5,5 -2,1 -4,2
EV/cap. employed 4,5 2 4,4
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 1780,4 3407 1342,2
Capex / depreciation 1585,3 6286,4 6515,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 897 5601,6 749,1
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 56,6 89,1 11,5

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Independent Oil & Resources PLC 46.0 % 46.0 % 6 Oct 2021
Larsen Oil & Gas AS 21.0 % 21.0 % 6 Oct 2021
Berge Gerdt Larsen 6.4 % 6.4 % 6 Oct 2021
NOCO (UK) LTD 6.3 % 6.3 % 6 Oct 2021
Increased Oil Recovery AS 5.8 % 5.8 % 6 Oct 2021
Tokala AS 1.1 % 1.1 % 6 Oct 2021
Ø. H. Holding AS 1.1 % 1.1 % 6 Oct 2021
Singh Baldev 0.8 % 0.8 % 6 Oct 2021
Henriksen Bygginvest AS 0.6 % 0.6 % 7 Apr 2021
Elektroland Norge AS 0.4 % 0.4 % 6 Oct 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB