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Probi

Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (c. 4% market growth) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 626 668 716
Sales growth (%) 3,7 6,7 7,2
EBITDA 183 200 221
EBITDA margin (%) 29,3 30 30,9
EBIT adj 112 122 137
EBIT adj margin (%) 17,8 18,3 19,2
Pretax profit 110 122 139
EPS rep 7,54 8,32 9,67
EPS growth (%) 12,6 10,4 16,3
EPS adj 7,54 8,32 9,67
DPS 1 1,1 1,28
EV/EBITDA (x) 12,7 17,4 15,3
EV/EBIT adj (x) 20,8 28,6 24,6
P/E (x) 29,5 40,3 34,6
P/E adj (x) 29,5 40,3 34,6
EV/sales (x) 3,7 5,2 4,7
FCF yield (%) 6 3,6 3,7
Dividend yield (%) 0,5 0,3 0,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,1 -1,6 -2
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 626 668 716
COGS -335 -372 -366
Gross profit 292 297 350
Other operating items -108 -96 -129
EBITDA 183 200 221
Depreciation on tangibles -12 -13 -14
Depreciation on intangibles -46 -51 -56
EBITA 112 122 137
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 112 122 137
Other financial items 1 0 0
Net financial items -2 0 1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 110 122 139
Tax -24 -27 -29
Net profit 86 95 110
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 86 95 110
EPS 7,54 8,32 9,67
EPS Adj 7,54 8,32 9,67
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -21,6 -22,2 -20,6
Gross margin (%) 46,6 44,4 48,9
EBITDA margin (%) 29,3 30 30,9
EBITA margin (%) 17,8 18,3 19,2
EBIT margin (%) 17,8 18,3 19,2
Pretax margin (%) 17,5 18,2 19,4
Net margin (%) 13,7 14,2 15,4
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 3,7 6,7 7,2
EBITDA growth (%) 18,4 9,2 10,3
EBIT growth (%) 10,3 9,6 12,4
Net profit growth (%) 12,6 10,4 16,3
EPS growth (%) 12,6 10,4 16,3
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 7,9 7,9 8,6
ROE Adj (%) 7,9 7,9 8,6
ROCE (%) 9,9 10,3 10,8
ROCE Adj(%) 9,9 10,3 10,8
ROIC (%) 9 9,7 11,4
ROIC Adj (%) 9 9,7 11,4
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 183 200 221
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 29,3 30 30,9
EBITA Adj 112 122 137
EBITA Adj margin (%) 17,8 18,3 19,2
EBIT Adj 112 122 137
EBIT Adj margin (%) 17,8 18,3 19,2
Pretax profit Adj 110 122 139
Net profit Adj 86 95 110
Net profit to shareholders Adj 86 95 110
Net Adj margin (%) 13,7 14,2 15,4
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 183 200 221
Net financial items -2 0 1
Paid tax -24 -27 -29
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 158 173 194
Change in WC 30 5 -10
Operating cash flow 188 178 184
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -27 -28 -29
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -8 -11 -13
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 153 139 143
Dividend paid 0 -11 -13
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -83 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 126 115 118
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 316 316 316
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 472 432 389
Tangible fixed assets 36 51 66
Other fixed assets 6 6 6
Fixed assets 901 875 844
Inventories 79 80 86
Receivables 83 92 98
Other current assets 18 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 207 322 440
Total assets 1290 1369 1469
Shareholders equity 1152 1236 1333
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1152 1236 1333
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 52 52 52
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 38 33 36
Other current liabilities 48 48 48
Total liabilities and equity 1290 1369 1469
Net IB debt -207 -322 -440
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -207 -322 -440
Capital invested 997 965 944
Working capital 95 90 100
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 2529 3817 3817
Net IB debt Adj -207 -322 -440
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 2323 3495 3377
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 50,1 50,3 50,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 64,2 68,1 75
Capital employed turnover (%) 54,5 56 55,8
Inventories / sales (%) 11,8 11,9 11,6
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 5,5 5,3 4,8
Working capital / sales (%) 17,6 13,9 13,3
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -18 -26,1 -33
Net debt / market cap (%) -5,7 -8,4 -11,5
Equity ratio (%) 89,3 90,3 90,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -18 -26,1 -33
Current ratio (%) 451,8 604,8 742,5
EBITDA / net interest (%) 6796,3 61438 -15431
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -112,8 -160,9 -199,2
Interest cover (%) 2739,9 10208,2 N/A
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Fully diluted shares Adj 11 11 11
EPS 7,54 8,32 9,67
Dividend per share Adj 1 1,1 1,3
EPS Adj 7,54 8,32 9,67
BVPS 101,12 108,43 117
BVPS Adj 31,95 42,8 55,15
Net IB debt / share -18,2 -28,3 -38,6
Share price 319,29 335 335
Market cap. (m) 3638 3817 3817
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 29,5 40,3 34,6
EV/sales 3,71 5,23 4,71
EV/EBITDA 12,7 17,4 15,3
EV/EBITA 20,8 28,6 24,6
EV/EBIT 20,8 28,6 24,6
Dividend yield (%) 0,5 0,3 0,4
FCF yield (%) 6 3,6 3,7
P/BVPS 2,2 3,09 2,86
P/BVPS Adj 6,95 7,83 6,07
P/E Adj 29,5 40,3 34,6
EV/EBITDA Adj 12,7 17,4 15,3
EV/EBITA Adj 20,8 28,6 24,6
EV/EBIT Adj 20,8 28,6 24,6
EV/cap. employed 2 2,8 2,5
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 5,6 5,9 5,8
Capex / depreciation 60,6 61,2 59,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 75,1 55,3 43,7
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 1,8 2,6 3,3
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 9,8 11,9 14,4
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 32,6 25,2 21,3

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund

Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 50.3 % 50.3 % 31 Dec 2017
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.7 % 10.7 % 30 Jun 2020
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.0 % 9.0 % 30 Jun 2020
SEB Fonder 2.6 % 2.6 % 30 Jun 2020
Probi Aktiebolag 2.1 % 2.1 % 30 Jun 2020
Avanza Pension 1.0 % 1.0 % 30 Jun 2020
TIN Fonder 0.8 % 0.8 % 30 Jun 2020
SEBinvest 0.7 % 0.7 % 30 Apr 2020
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Jun 2020
Nordea Liv & Pension 0.4 % 0.4 % 30 Jun 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 400 BUY 6 May 2020
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016

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