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Probi

Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (7-9% annually) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 604 669 716
Sales growth (%) 0 10,7 7,1
EBITDA 170 188 190
EBITDA margin (%) 28,2 28,1 26,6
EBIT adj 99 117 125
EBIT adj margin (%) 16,3 17,5 17,5
Pretax profit 96 118 126
EPS rep 6,47 7,94 8,53
EPS growth (%) -3,3 22,8 7,4
EPS adj 6,47 7,94 8,53
DPS 0 0,79 0,85
EV/EBITDA (x) 14,1 12,3 11,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 24,4 19,7 17,5
P/E (x) 33,7 27,4 25,6
P/E adj (x) 33,7 27,4 25,6
EV/sales (x) 4 3,4 3,1
FCF yield (%) 5,5 4,9 5,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0,4 0,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,8 -1,3 -1,8
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 604 669 716
COGS -324 -355 -380
Gross profit 280 314 337
Other operating items -110 -127 -146
EBITDA 170 188 190
Depreciation on tangibles -12 -11 -10
Depreciation on intangibles -46 -46 -41
EBITA 99 117 125
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 99 117 125
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -2 1 1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 96 118 126
Tax -21 -25 -27
Net profit 75 92 99
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 75 92 99
EPS 6,47 7,94 8,53
EPS Adj 6,47 7,94 8,53
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -21,9 -21,4 -21,4
Gross margin (%) 46,3 47 47
EBITDA margin (%) 28,2 28,1 26,6
EBITA margin (%) 16,3 17,5 17,5
EBIT margin (%) 16,3 17,5 17,5
Pretax margin (%) 16 17,6 17,6
Net margin (%) 12,5 13,8 13,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 0 10,7 7,1
EBITDA growth (%) 9,8 10,3 1,4
EBIT growth (%) -2,4 18,4 7,3
Net profit growth (%) -1,2 22,8 7,4
EPS growth (%) -3,3 22,8 7,4
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 7,1 8,1 8,1
ROE Adj (%) 7,1 8,1 8,1
ROCE (%) 8,4 9,3 9,4
ROCE Adj(%) 8,4 9,3 9,4
ROIC (%) 7,8 9,3 10,1
ROIC Adj (%) 7,8 9,3 10,1
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 170 188 190
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 28,2 28,1 26,6
EBITA Adj 99 117 125
EBITA Adj margin (%) 16,3 17,5 17,5
EBIT Adj 99 117 125
EBIT Adj margin (%) 16,3 17,5 17,5
Pretax profit Adj 96 118 126
Net profit Adj 75 92 99
Net profit to shareholders Adj 75 92 99
Net Adj margin (%) 12,5 13,8 13,9
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 170 188 190
Net financial items -2 1 1
Paid tax -21 -25 -27
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 147 163 164
Change in WC 18 -13 -10
Operating cash flow 171 150 154
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -23 -17 -14
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -9 -10 -11
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 139 123 129
Dividend paid 0 -9 -10
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -74 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 54 102 107
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 305 305 305
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 457 421 390
Tangible fixed assets 41 46 51
Other fixed assets 2 2 2
Fixed assets 875 843 815
Inventories 72 80 86
Receivables 83 92 98
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 253 355 462
Total assets 1284 1370 1462
Shareholders equity 1104 1187 1276
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1104 1187 1276
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 7 7 7
Short-term debt 118 118 118
Accounts payable 30 33 36
Other current liabilities 24 24 24
Total liabilities and equity 1111 1209 1284
Net IB debt -134 -236 -344
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -134 -236 -344
Capital invested 1000 982 963
Working capital 125 138 148
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 2538 2538 2538
Net IB debt Adj -134 -236 -344
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 2404 2302 2194
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 48,5 50,4 50,6
Capital invested turnover (%) 61,2 67,5 73,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 51 52,9 53,1
Inventories / sales (%) 11,7 11,4 11,6
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 5,1 4,8 4,8
Working capital / sales (%) 22,2 19,7 20
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -12,2 -19,9 -26,9
Net debt / market cap (%) -3,6 -9,3 -13,5
Equity ratio (%) 86 86,6 87,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -12,2 -19,9 -26,9
Current ratio (%) 236 298,9 362
EBITDA / net interest (%) 7836,5 -21732,1 -19855,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -79 -126 -180,7
Interest cover (%) 2930,4 24928,7 26759,3
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 12 12 12
Fully diluted shares Adj 12 12 12
EPS 6,47 7,94 8,53
Dividend per share Adj 0 0,8 0,9
EPS Adj 6,47 7,94 8,53
BVPS 94,79 101,94 109,61
BVPS Adj 29,4 39,65 49,96
Net IB debt / share -11,5 -20,3 -29,5
Share price 319,29 218 218
Market cap. (m) 3718 2538 2538
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 33,7 27,4 25,6
EV/sales 3,98 3,44 3,06
EV/EBITDA 14,1 12,3 11,5
EV/EBITA 24,4 19,7 17,5
EV/EBIT 24,4 19,7 17,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0,4 0,4
FCF yield (%) 5,5 4,9 5,1
P/BVPS 2,3 2,14 1,99
P/BVPS Adj 7,41 5,5 4,36
P/E Adj 33,7 27,4 25,6
EV/EBITDA Adj 14,1 12,3 11,5
EV/EBITA Adj 24,4 19,7 17,5
EV/EBIT Adj 24,4 19,7 17,5
EV/cap. employed 2 1,8 1,6
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 5,3 4 3,5
Capex / depreciation 55,6 46,9 49,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 57 36 28,1
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 1,9 2,4 2,8
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 10,1 11 10,6
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 28,7 23,6 18,9

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund

Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 50.3 % 50.3 % 31 Dec 2017
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.7 % 10.7 % 31 Dec 2019
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.0 % 9.0 % 31 Dec 2019
SEB Fonder 2.6 % 2.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Probi Aktiebolag 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Dec 2019
Avanza Pension 1.0 % 1.0 % 31 Dec 2019
TIN Fonder 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 0.7 % 0.7 % 31 Dec 2019
SEBinvest 0.7 % 0.7 % 30 Sep 2019
XACT Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 24 Oct 2016

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