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Probi

Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (c. 4% market growth) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 707 739 794
Sales growth (%) 13 4,5 7,4
EBITDA 203 215 234
EBITDA margin (%) 28,7 29,1 29,5
EBIT adj 128 137 155
EBIT adj margin (%) 18,2 18,6 19,5
Pretax profit 127 139 160
EPS rep 8,66 9,68 11,14
EPS growth (%) 15 11,7 15,1
EPS adj 8,66 9,68 11,14
DPS 1,15 1,28 1,48
EV/EBITDA (x) 25,6 23,5 21,1
EV/EBIT adj (x) 40,4 36,9 31,8
P/E (x) 55,7 49,9 43,4
P/E adj (x) 55,7 49,9 43,4
EV/sales (x) 7,3 6,9 6,2
FCF yield (%) 1,4 2,6 3
Dividend yield (%) 0,2 0,3 0,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,6 -2 -2,4
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Sales 707 739 794
COGS -396 -394 -404
Gross profit 312 345 390
Other operating items -109 -130 -156
EBITDA 203 215 234
Depreciation on tangibles -12 -13 -13
Depreciation on intangibles -48 -51 -52
EBITA 128 137 155
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 128 137 155
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -1 1 5
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 127 139 160
Tax -29 -29 -33
Net profit 99 110 127
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 99 110 127
EPS 8,66 9,68 11,14
EPS Adj 8,66 9,68 11,14
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22,5 -20,6 -20,6
Gross margin (%) 44,1 46,7 49,1
EBITDA margin (%) 28,7 29,1 29,5
EBITA margin (%) 18,2 18,6 19,5
EBIT margin (%) 18,2 18,6 19,5
Pretax margin (%) 18 18,8 20,1
Net margin (%) 14 14,9 16
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) 13 4,5 7,4
EBITDA growth (%) 10,5 6,2 8,8
EBIT growth (%) 15,1 7 12,7
Net profit growth (%) 15 11,7 15,1
EPS growth (%) 15 11,7 15,1
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) 8,3 8,6 9,1
ROE Adj (%) 8,3 8,6 9,1
ROCE (%) 10,8 10,8 11,5
ROCE Adj(%) 10,8 10,8 11,5
ROIC (%) 10,1 11,3 13,1
ROIC Adj (%) 10,1 11,3 13,1
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 203 215 234
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 28,7 29,1 29,5
EBITA Adj 128 137 155
EBITA Adj margin (%) 18,2 18,6 19,5
EBIT Adj 128 137 155
EBIT Adj margin (%) 18,2 18,6 19,5
Pretax profit Adj 127 139 160
Net profit Adj 99 110 127
Net profit to shareholders Adj 99 110 127
Net Adj margin (%) 14 14,9 16
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
EBITDA 203 215 234
Net financial items -1 1 5
Paid tax -29 -29 -33
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 173 188 206
Change in WC -3 -7 -11
Operating cash flow 170 182 195
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -30 -30 -24
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -9 -8 -8
Acquisitions and disposals -53 0 0
Free cash flow 78 144 163
Dividend paid -11 -13 -15
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 53 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 108 119 136
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 316 316 316
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 433 389 345
Tangible fixed assets 53 70 81
Other fixed assets 59 59 59
Fixed assets 931 902 867
Inventories 85 89 95
Receivables 97 101 109
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 262 381 517
Total assets 1375 1473 1588
Shareholders equity 1239 1337 1449
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1239 1337 1449
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 52 52 52
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 35 37 40
Other current liabilities 48 48 48
Total liabilities and equity 1375 1473 1588
Net IB debt -315 -434 -570
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -315 -434 -570
Capital invested 976 954 930
Working capital 98 105 116
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 5503 5503 5503
Net IB debt Adj -315 -434 -570
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 5189 5069 4933
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 53,1 51,9 51,9
Capital invested turnover (%) 71,7 76,6 84,3
Capital employed turnover (%) 59,2 57,4 57
Inventories / sales (%) 11,6 11,7 11,6
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 5,2 4,9 4,8
Working capital / sales (%) 13,7 13,7 13,9
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) -25,4 -32,5 -39,3
Net debt / market cap (%) -9,3 -7,9 -10,4
Equity ratio (%) 90,2 90,7 91,2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -25,4 -32,5 -39,3
Current ratio (%) 530,5 670 819,7
EBITDA / net interest (%) 18401,1 -14567,7 -4727,5
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -155,2 -201,5 -243,3
Interest cover (%) 7660,4 0 0
N/A N/A N/A
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Fully diluted shares Adj 11 11 11
EPS 8,66 9,68 11,14
Dividend per share Adj 1,1 1,3 1,5
EPS Adj 8,66 9,68 11,14
BVPS 108,78 117,31 127,16
BVPS Adj 43,06 55,4 69,11
Net IB debt / share -27,6 -38,1 -50
Share price 297,78 483 483
Market cap. (m) 3393 5503 5503
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E 55,7 49,9 43,4
EV/sales 7,33 6,86 6,21
EV/EBITDA 25,6 23,5 21,1
EV/EBITA 40,4 36,9 31,8
EV/EBIT 40,4 36,9 31,8
Dividend yield (%) 0,2 0,3 0,3
FCF yield (%) 1,4 2,6 3
P/BVPS 4,44 4,12 3,8
P/BVPS Adj 11,22 8,72 6,99
P/E Adj 55,7 49,9 43,4
EV/EBITDA Adj 25,6 23,5 21,1
EV/EBITA Adj 40,4 36,9 31,8
EV/EBIT Adj 40,4 36,9 31,8
EV/cap. employed 4,2 3,8 3,4
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 5,5 5,1 4,1
Capex / depreciation 64,4 58,3 49,2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 55,9 42,2 29,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 2,1 2 2,4
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 11,2 13,2 15,2
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 22,7 18,3 16,2
N/A N/A N/A

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund

Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 56.6 % 56.6 % 31 Dec 2019
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.7 % 10.7 % 31 Dec 2020
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.0 % 9.0 % 31 Dec 2020
SEB Fonder 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 Dec 2020
Probi Aktiebolag 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Dec 2020
TIN Fonder 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Dec 2020
Avanza Pension 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Dec 2020
SEBinvest 0.7 % 0.7 % 30 Sep 2020
Nordea Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Dec 2020
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Dec 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 400 BUY 6 May 2020
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016

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