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Probi

Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (c. 4% market growth) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 1,8 2,6 2,8
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1,2 -1,8 -2,2
Sales 717 740 808
Sales growth (%) 14,5 3,2 9,1
EBITDA 196 221 243
EBITDA margin (%) 27,4 29,8 30,1
EBIT adj 124 153 175
EBIT adj margin (%) 17,2 20,6 21,7
Pretax profit 120 153 174
EPS rep 8,14 10,51 12,01
EPS growth (%) 7,9 29,2 14,2
EPS adj 11,44 13,5 14,99
DPS 1,1 1,21 1,33
EV/EBITDA (x) 23,3 23,3 20,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 37,1 33,6 28,6
P/E (x) 51,9 45,9 40,2
P/E adj (x) 36,9 35,8 32,2
EV/sales (x) 6,4 6,9 6,2
FCF yield (%) 2,1 2,8 3
Dividend yield (%) 0,3 0,3 0,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,9 -1,4 -1,9
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Depreciation and amortisation -35 -34 -34
Of which leasing depreciation -15 -15 -15
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -38 -34 -34
EBITDA lease Adj 183 207 229
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 25,6 27,9 28,3
Sales 717 740 808
COGS -407 -401 -425
Gross profit 310 339 382
Other operating items -113 -118 -139
EBITDA 196 221 243
Depreciation on tangibles -14 -14 -14
Depreciation on intangibles -6 -7 -7
EBITA 161 187 209
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation -38 -35 -35
EBIT 124 153 175
Other financial items -2 0 0
Net financial items -4 0 -1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 120 153 174
Tax -27 -33 -37
Net profit 93 120 137
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 93 120 137
EPS 8,14 10,51 12,01
EPS Adj 11,44 13,5 14,99
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22,8 -21,5 -21,5
Gross margin (%) 43,2 45,8 47,4
EBITDA margin (%) 27,4 29,8 30,1
EBITA margin (%) 22,5 25,2 25,9
EBIT margin (%) 17,2 20,6 21,7
Pretax margin (%) 16,7 20,6 21,6
Net margin (%) 12,9 16,2 16,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) 14,5 3,2 9,1
EBITDA growth (%) 7,1 12,4 10,2
EBIT growth (%) 10,9 23,4 14,6
Net profit growth (%) 7,9 29,2 14,2
EPS growth (%) 7,9 29,2 14,2
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) 8,2 10 10,1
ROE Adj (%) 11,5 12,8 12,6
ROCE (%) 10,3 12,4 12,6
ROCE Adj(%) 13,5 15,1 15
ROIC (%) 9,7 12,4 14
ROIC Adj (%) 9,7 12,4 14
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 196 221 243
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 27,4 29,8 30,1
EBITA Adj 161 187 209
EBITA Adj margin (%) 22,5 25,2 25,9
EBIT Adj 124 153 175
EBIT Adj margin (%) 17,2 20,6 21,7
Pretax profit Adj 158 187 208
Net profit Adj 130 154 171
Net profit to shareholders Adj 130 154 171
Net Adj margin (%) 18,2 20,8 21,2
Leasing payments -13 -14 -15
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease liability amortisation -13 -14 -15
Other intangible assets 396 387 360
Right-of-use asset 43 46 46
Total other fixed assets 53 53 53
Leasing liability 44 47 47
Total other long-term liabilities 8 11 11
Net IB debt excl. leasing -216 -362 -498
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -117,6 -175,3 -217,9
EBITDA 196 221 243
Net financial items -4 0 -1
Paid tax -27 -33 -37
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 165 188 205
Change in WC -22 -3 -13
Operating cash flow 143 185 193
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -30 -17 -12
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -13 -12 -14
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 100 156 167
Dividend paid -11 0 -16
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -48 3 0
Decrease in net IB debt 25 128 137
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 278 296 296
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 396 368 341
Tangible fixed assets 60 69 68
Other fixed assets 53 53 53
Fixed assets 830 851 823
Inventories 98 110 116
Receivables 89 95 104
Other current assets 7 8 8
Cash and liquid assets 216 362 498
Total assets 1240 1426 1550
Shareholders equity 1115 1291 1412
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1115 1291 1412
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 4 4 4
Other long-term liabilities 4 4 4
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 40 46 49
Other current liabilities 32 31 31
Total liabilities and equity 1240 1426 1550
Net IB debt -171 -315 -451
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -171 -315 -451
Capital invested 952 987 972
Working capital 122 137 149
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 4808 5503 5503
Net IB debt Adj -171 -315 -451
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -53 -53 -53
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 4584 5136 5000
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 56,7 55,5 54,3
Capital invested turnover (%) 73 79,9 88,3
Capital employed turnover (%) 60,4 62 61,4
Inventories / sales (%) 12,4 13 12,3
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 5,4 5,3 5
Working capital / sales (%) 15,5 17,5 17,7
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) -15,3 -24,4 -31,9
Net debt / market cap (%) -5 -5,7 -8,2
Equity ratio (%) 89,9 90,5 91,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -15,3 -24,4 -31,9
Current ratio (%) 477 625,1 766,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) 10438,9 36601,9 35483,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -87,1 -142,5 -185,2
Interest cover (%) 7609,9 10600,7 11850,6
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 1,8 2,6 2,8
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Fully diluted shares Adj 11 11 11
EPS 8,14 10,51 12,01
Dividend per share Adj 1,1 1,2 1,3
EPS Adj 11,44 13,5 14,99
BVPS 97,88 113,32 123,9
BVPS Adj 38,73 53,4 66,33
Net IB debt / share -15 -27,6 -39,6
Share price 297,78 483 483
Market cap. (m) 3393 5503 5503
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E 51,9 45,9 40,2
EV/sales 6,39 6,94 6,19
EV/EBITDA 23,3 23,3 20,5
EV/EBITA 28,4 27,5 23,9
EV/EBIT 37,1 33,6 28,6
Dividend yield (%) 0,3 0,3 0,3
FCF yield (%) 2,1 2,8 3
P/BVPS 4,31 4,26 3,9
P/BVPS Adj 10,9 9,05 7,28
P/E Adj 36,9 35,8 32,2
EV/EBITDA Adj 23,3 23,3 20,5
EV/EBITA Adj 28,4 27,5 23,9
EV/EBIT Adj 37,1 33,6 28,6
EV/cap. employed 4 3,8 3,4
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 6 3,9 3,2
Capex / depreciation 211,4 148,9 130,6
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 50 24,1 17,8
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 3,4 3,2 3,8
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 1,6 1,7 1,8
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 23,4 19 19,5

Equity research

Read earlier research

Media

Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund

Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 57.4 % 57.4 % 31 Dec 2020
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.7 % 10.7 % 31 Mar 2021
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.0 % 9.0 % 30 Apr 2021
SEB Fonder 2.6 % 2.6 % 30 Apr 2021
Probi Aktiebolag 2.1 % 2.1 % 30 Apr 2021
SEBinvest 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Jan 2021
Nordea Fonder 0.7 % 0.7 % 31 Mar 2021
Avanza Pension 0.6 % 0.6 % 30 Apr 2021
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Apr 2021
Deka Investments 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Dec 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 400 BUY 6 May 2020
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016

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