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Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (7-9% annually) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 604 692 794
Sales growth (%) -1,3 14,5 14,7
EBITDA 155 178 193
EBITDA margin (%) 25,6 25,7 24,3
EBIT adj 101 107 126
EBIT adj margin (%) 16,7 15,4 15,9
Pretax profit 99 104 124
EPS rep 6,69 7,16 8,56
EPS growth (%) -8 7 19,6
EPS adj 6,69 7,16 8,56
DPS 0 0 0,86
EV/EBITDA (x) 26 18 16,1
EV/EBIT adj (x) 39,8 30 24,6
P/E (x) 53,8 41,8 35
P/E adj (x) 53,8 41,8 35
EV/sales (x) 6,7 4,6 3,9
FCF yield (%) 2,8 3,9 3,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,5 -1,2 -1,6
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 604 692 794
COGS -326 -376 -431
Gross profit 278 316 363
Other operating items -123 -138 -170
EBITDA 155 178 193
Depreciation on tangibles -11 -14 -13
Depreciation on intangibles -43 -57 -53
EBITA 101 107 126
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 101 107 126
Other financial items 2 0 0
Net financial items -3 -3 -2
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 99 104 124
Tax -22 -22 -27
Net profit 76 82 98
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 76 82 98
EPS 6,69 7,16 8,56
EPS Adj 6,69 7,16 8,56
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22,6 -21,5 -21,4
Gross margin (%) 46 45,7 45,7
EBITDA margin (%) 25,6 25,7 24,3
EBITA margin (%) 16,7 15,4 15,9
EBIT margin (%) 16,7 15,4 15,9
Pretax margin (%) 16,3 15 15,6
Net margin (%) 12,6 11,8 12,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) -1,3 14,5 14,7
EBITDA growth (%) -1,5 14,7 8,6
EBIT growth (%) -2,9 5,5 18,4
Net profit growth (%) 10,3 7 19,6
EPS growth (%) -8 7 19,6
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 8 7,6 8,5
ROE Adj (%) 8 7,6 8,5
ROCE (%) 9,5 9,1 10,1
ROCE Adj(%) 9,5 9,1 10,1
ROIC (%) 8,3 8,8 10,8
ROIC Adj (%) 8,3 8,8 10,8
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 155 178 193
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 25,6 25,7 24,3
EBITA Adj 101 107 126
EBITA Adj margin (%) 16,7 15,4 15,9
EBIT Adj 101 107 126
EBIT Adj margin (%) 16,7 15,4 15,9
Pretax profit Adj 99 104 124
Net profit Adj 76 82 98
Net profit to shareholders Adj 76 82 98
Net Adj margin (%) 12,6 11,8 12,3
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 155 178 193
Net financial items -3 -3 -2
Paid tax -20 -22 -27
Non-cash items 19 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 152 153 164
Change in WC -42 0 -21
Operating cash flow 128 159 143
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -4 -14 -20
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -10 -12 -16
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 114 133 107
Dividend paid 0 0 -10
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -21 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 101 133 98
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 305 305 305
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 494 449 412
Tangible fixed assets 29 29 35
Other fixed assets 2 2 2
Fixed assets 829 784 753
Inventories 69 83 95
Receivables 106 95 109
Other current assets 6 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 199 332 430
Total assets 1209 1294 1387
Shareholders equity 1028 1110 1198
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1028 1110 1198
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 7 7 7
Short-term debt 118 118 118
Accounts payable 31 35 40
Other current liabilities 24 24 24
Total liabilities and equity 1211 1111 1209
Net IB debt -81 -214 -311
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -81 -214 -311
Capital invested 973 927 918
Working capital 143 143 164
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 4102 3413 3413
Net IB debt Adj -81 -214 -311
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 4021 3199 3101
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 52,1 55,3 59,2
Capital invested turnover (%) 64,2 72,8 86
Capital employed turnover (%) 54,7 58,3 62,4
Inventories / sales (%) 11,4 11 11,2
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 4,8 4,8 4,7
Working capital / sales (%) 20,3 20,7 19,4
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -7,9 -19,2 -26
Net debt / market cap (%) -1,8 -6,3 -9,1
Equity ratio (%) 85 85,8 86,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -7,9 -19,2 -26
Current ratio (%) 218,2 287,5 347,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) 3289,6 6366,6 8751,8
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -52,2 -120,2 -161,4
Interest cover (%) 1636,4 2569,1 3373
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Fully diluted shares Adj 11 11 11
EPS 6,69 7,16 8,56
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0,9
EPS Adj 6,69 7,16 8,56
BVPS 90,26 97,42 105,12
BVPS Adj 20,18 31,25 42,24
Net IB debt / share -7,1 -18,8 -27,3
Share price 397,39 299,5 299,5
Market cap. (m) 4528 3413 3413
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 53,8 41,8 35
EV/sales 6,66 4,62 3,91
EV/EBITDA 26 18 16,1
EV/EBITA 39,8 30 24,6
EV/EBIT 39,8 30 24,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0,3
FCF yield (%) 2,8 3,9 3,1
P/BVPS 3,99 3,07 2,85
P/BVPS Adj 17,84 9,58 7,09
P/E Adj 53,8 41,8 35
EV/EBITDA Adj 26 18 16,1
EV/EBITA Adj 39,8 30 24,6
EV/EBIT Adj 39,8 30 24,6
EV/cap. employed 3,5 2,6 2,4
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2,3 3,8 4,5
Capex / depreciation 26,1 36,6 53,6
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 13 48 56,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 2,1 2,7 3,9
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 8,7 12,6 12,9
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 36,9 49,3 37,7

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund

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Main shareholders

Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 50.3 % 50.3 % 31 Dec 2017
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.7 % 10.7 % 31 Jul 2019
Fjärde AP-fonden 8.9 % 8.9 % 31 Aug 2019
Probi Aktiebolag 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Aug 2019
SEB Fonder 1.1 % 1.1 % 31 Jul 2019
Avanza Pension 1.1 % 1.1 % 31 Aug 2019
TIN Fonder 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Aug 2019
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Aug 2019
SEBinvest 0.7 % 0.7 % 31 May 2019
XACT Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Aug 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list

Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 24 Oct 2016

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