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Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (7-9% annually) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 604 604 669
Sales growth (%) -1,3 0 10,7
EBITDA 155 170 188
EBITDA margin (%) 25,6 28,2 28,1
EBIT adj 101 99 117
EBIT adj margin (%) 16,7 16,3 17,5
Pretax profit 99 96 118
EPS rep 6,69 6,47 7,94
EPS growth (%) -8 -3,3 22,8
EPS adj 6,69 6,47 7,94
DPS 0 0 0,79
EV/EBITDA (x) 26 18,5 16,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 39,8 31,9 26,1
P/E (x) 53,8 43,6 35,5
P/E adj (x) 53,8 43,6 35,5
EV/sales (x) 6,7 5,2 4,6
FCF yield (%) 2,8 4,2 3,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,5 -0,8 -1,3
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 604 604 669
COGS -326 -324 -355
Gross profit 278 280 314
Other operating items -123 -110 -127
EBITDA 155 170 188
Depreciation on tangibles -11 -12 -11
Depreciation on intangibles -43 -46 -46
EBITA 101 99 117
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 101 99 117
Other financial items 2 0 0
Net financial items -3 -2 1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 99 96 118
Tax -22 -21 -25
Net profit 76 75 92
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 76 75 92
EPS 6,69 6,47 7,94
EPS Adj 6,69 6,47 7,94
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22,6 -21,9 -21,4
Gross margin (%) 46 46,3 47
EBITDA margin (%) 25,6 28,2 28,1
EBITA margin (%) 16,7 16,3 17,5
EBIT margin (%) 16,7 16,3 17,5
Pretax margin (%) 16,3 16 17,6
Net margin (%) 12,6 12,5 13,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) -1,3 0 10,7
EBITDA growth (%) -1,5 9,8 10,3
EBIT growth (%) -2,9 -2,4 18,4
Net profit growth (%) 10,3 -1,2 22,8
EPS growth (%) -8 -3,3 22,8
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 8 7,1 8,1
ROE Adj (%) 8 7,1 8,1
ROCE (%) 9,5 8,4 9,3
ROCE Adj(%) 9,5 8,4 9,3
ROIC (%) 8,3 7,8 9,3
ROIC Adj (%) 8,3 7,8 9,3
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 155 170 188
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 25,6 28,2 28,1
EBITA Adj 101 99 117
EBITA Adj margin (%) 16,7 16,3 17,5
EBIT Adj 101 99 117
EBIT Adj margin (%) 16,7 16,3 17,5
Pretax profit Adj 99 96 118
Net profit Adj 76 75 92
Net profit to shareholders Adj 76 75 92
Net Adj margin (%) 12,6 12,5 13,8
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 155 170 188
Net financial items -3 -2 1
Paid tax -20 -21 -25
Non-cash items 19 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 152 147 163
Change in WC -42 18 -13
Operating cash flow 128 171 150
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -4 -23 -17
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -10 -9 -10
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 114 139 123
Dividend paid 0 0 -9
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -21 -74 0
Decrease in net IB debt 101 54 102
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 305 305 305
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 494 457 421
Tangible fixed assets 29 41 46
Other fixed assets 2 2 2
Fixed assets 829 875 843
Inventories 69 72 80
Receivables 106 83 92
Other current assets 6 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 199 253 355
Total assets 1209 1284 1370
Shareholders equity 1028 1104 1187
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1028 1104 1187
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 7 7 7
Short-term debt 118 118 118
Accounts payable 31 30 33
Other current liabilities 24 24 24
Total liabilities and equity 1211 1111 1209
Net IB debt -81 -134 -236
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -81 -134 -236
Capital invested 973 1000 982
Working capital 143 125 138
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 4102 3284 3284
Net IB debt Adj -81 -134 -236
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 4021 3149 3047
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 52,1 48,5 50,4
Capital invested turnover (%) 64,2 61,2 67,5
Capital employed turnover (%) 54,7 51 52,9
Inventories / sales (%) 11,4 11,7 11,4
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 4,8 5,1 4,8
Working capital / sales (%) 20,3 22,2 19,7
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -7,9 -12,2 -19,9
Net debt / market cap (%) -1,8 -4,1 -7,2
Equity ratio (%) 85 86 86,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -7,9 -12,2 -19,9
Current ratio (%) 218,2 236 298,9
EBITDA / net interest (%) 3289,6 7836,5 -21732,1
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -52,2 -79 -126
Interest cover (%) 1636,4 2930,4 24928,7
SEKm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 12 12
Fully diluted shares Adj 11 12 12
EPS 6,69 6,47 7,94
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0,8
EPS Adj 6,69 6,47 7,94
BVPS 90,26 94,79 101,94
BVPS Adj 20,18 29,4 39,65
Net IB debt / share -7,1 -11,5 -20,3
Share price 397,39 282 282
Market cap. (m) 4528 3284 3284
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 53,8 43,6 35,5
EV/sales 6,66 5,21 4,56
EV/EBITDA 26 18,5 16,2
EV/EBITA 39,8 31,9 26,1
EV/EBIT 39,8 31,9 26,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0,3
FCF yield (%) 2,8 4,2 3,8
P/BVPS 3,99 2,98 2,77
P/BVPS Adj 17,84 9,59 7,11
P/E Adj 53,8 43,6 35,5
EV/EBITDA Adj 26 18,5 16,2
EV/EBITA Adj 39,8 31,9 26,1
EV/EBIT Adj 39,8 31,9 26,1
EV/cap. employed 3,5 2,6 2,3
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 2,3 5,3 4
Capex / depreciation 26,1 55,6 46,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 13 57 36
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 2,1 1,9 2,4
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 8,7 10,1 11
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 36,9 28,7 23,6

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund

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Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 50.3 % 50.3 % 31 Dec 2017
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.7 % 10.7 % 30 Sep 2019
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.0 % 9.0 % 31 Oct 2019
Probi Aktiebolag 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Oct 2019
SEB Fonder 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Oct 2019
Avanza Pension 1.0 % 1.0 % 31 Oct 2019
TIN Fonder 0.8 % 0.8 % 30 Sep 2019
SEBinvest 0.7 % 0.7 % 31 Jul 2019
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 0.7 % 0.7 % 31 Oct 2019
XACT Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Oct 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 24 Oct 2016

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