Press the button and be introduced to a new random company!

Introduce me >

Social media

facebook   Follow us on Twitter

Coverage

Probi

Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (c. 4% market growth) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 626 676 724
Sales growth (%) 3,7 8 7
EBITDA 183 207 223
EBITDA margin (%) 29,3 30,7 30,8
EBIT adj 112 124 134
EBIT adj margin (%) 17,8 18,4 18,5
Pretax profit 110 125 135
EPS rep 7,54 8,63 9,4
EPS growth (%) 12,6 14,5 8,9
EPS adj 7,54 8,63 9,4
DPS 1 1,14 1,25
EV/EBITDA (x) 13 7,6 6,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 21,4 12,8 10,9
P/E (x) 29,5 18,7 17,1
P/E adj (x) 29,5 18,7 17,1
EV/sales (x) 3,8 2,3 2
FCF yield (%) 5,6 7,3 8,2
Dividend yield (%) 0,5 0,7 0,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,8 -1,2 -1,7
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 626 676 724
COGS -335 -353 -376
Gross profit 292 323 348
Other operating items -108 -115 -125
EBITDA 183 207 223
Depreciation on tangibles -12 -14 -15
Depreciation on intangibles -46 -55 -60
EBITA 112 124 134
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 112 124 134
Other financial items 1 0 0
Net financial items -2 1 1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 110 125 135
Tax -24 -27 -28
Net profit 86 98 107
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 86 98 107
EPS 7,54 8,63 9,4
EPS Adj 7,54 8,63 9,4
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -21,6 -21,4 -20,6
Gross margin (%) 46,6 47,7 48,1
EBITDA margin (%) 29,3 30,7 30,8
EBITA margin (%) 17,8 18,4 18,5
EBIT margin (%) 17,8 18,4 18,5
Pretax margin (%) 17,5 18,5 18,6
Net margin (%) 13,7 14,5 14,8
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 3,7 8 7
EBITDA growth (%) 18,4 13,1 7,6
EBIT growth (%) 10,3 11,4 7,8
Net profit growth (%) 12,6 14,5 8,9
EPS growth (%) 12,6 14,5 8,9
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 8 8,5 8,6
ROE Adj (%) 8 8,5 8,6
ROCE (%) 9,6 9,8 9,9
ROCE Adj(%) 9,6 9,8 9,9
ROIC (%) 9 10 11,3
ROIC Adj (%) 9 10 11,3
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 183 207 223
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 29,3 30,7 30,8
EBITA Adj 112 124 134
EBITA Adj margin (%) 17,8 18,4 18,5
EBIT Adj 112 124 134
EBIT Adj margin (%) 17,8 18,4 18,5
Pretax profit Adj 110 125 135
Net profit Adj 86 98 107
Net profit to shareholders Adj 86 98 107
Net Adj margin (%) 13,7 14,5 14,8
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 183 207 223
Net financial items -2 1 1
Paid tax -24 -27 -28
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 158 181 196
Change in WC 20 -10 -10
Operating cash flow 178 171 186
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -27 -30 -29
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -8 -7 -7
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 143 134 150
Dividend paid 0 -11 -13
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -74 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 57 111 125
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 305 305 305
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 456 407 355
Tangible fixed assets 44 61 74
Other fixed assets 2 2 2
Fixed assets 878 844 803
Inventories 75 81 87
Receivables 86 93 99
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 256 367 492
Total assets 1295 1385 1481
Shareholders equity 1114 1201 1295
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1114 1201 1295
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 7 7 7
Short-term debt 118 118 118
Accounts payable 31 34 36
Other current liabilities 24 24 24
Total liabilities and equity 1295 1385 1481
Net IB debt -138 -248 -373
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -138 -248 -373
Capital invested 983 960 929
Working capital 105 116 125
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 2529 1834 1834
Net IB debt Adj -138 -248 -373
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 2392 1586 1461
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 50 50,5 50,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 64,6 69,6 76,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 52,6 53 53
Inventories / sales (%) 11,5 11,6 11,6
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 5 4,8 4,8
Working capital / sales (%) 18,4 16,3 16,7
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -12,4 -20,7 -28,8
Net debt / market cap (%) -3,8 -13,5 -20,4
Equity ratio (%) 86 86,8 87,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -12,4 -20,7 -28,8
Current ratio (%) 239,6 306,1 378,8
EBITDA / net interest (%) 6796,3 -23604 -22916,8
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -75,1 -119,8 -167,4
Interest cover (%) 2739,9 26493,9 28565,2
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Fully diluted shares Adj 11 11 11
EPS 7,54 8,63 9,4
Dividend per share Adj 1 1,1 1,2
EPS Adj 7,54 8,63 9,4
BVPS 97,79 105,42 113,68
BVPS Adj 31,05 42,94 55,82
Net IB debt / share -12,1 -21,8 -32,8
Share price 319,29 161 161
Market cap. (m) 3638 1834 1834
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 29,5 18,7 17,1
EV/sales 3,82 2,35 2,02
EV/EBITDA 13 7,6 6,5
EV/EBITA 21,4 12,8 10,9
EV/EBIT 21,4 12,8 10,9
Dividend yield (%) 0,5 0,7 0,8
FCF yield (%) 5,6 7,3 8,2
P/BVPS 2,27 1,53 1,42
P/BVPS Adj 7,15 3,75 2,88
P/E Adj 29,5 18,7 17,1
EV/EBITDA Adj 13 7,6 6,5
EV/EBITA Adj 21,4 12,8 10,9
EV/EBIT Adj 21,4 12,8 10,9
EV/cap. employed 1,9 1,2 1
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 5,6 5,5 5
Capex / depreciation 60,6 53,5 48,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 60,4 49,7 38,9
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 1,8 1,7 2,1
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 10,2 13,6 17
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 26,2 22,9 20,2

Equity research

Read earlier research

Media

Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund

Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 50.3 % 50.3 % 31 Dec 2017
Swedbank Robur Fonder 10.7 % 10.7 % 29 Feb 2020
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.0 % 9.0 % 29 Feb 2020
SEB Fonder 2.7 % 2.7 % 29 Feb 2020
Probi Aktiebolag 2.1 % 2.1 % 29 Feb 2020
Avanza Pension 1.0 % 1.0 % 29 Feb 2020
TIN Fonder 0.8 % 0.8 % 29 Feb 2020
SEBinvest 0.7 % 0.7 % 31 Dec 2019
XACT Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 29 Feb 2020
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 0.4 % 0.4 % 29 Feb 2020
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
Niklas Brandt + 250 BUY 24 Oct 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016

Show More