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SinterCast

SinterCast

Process control solutions for compacted graphite iron

SinterCast is a leading supplier of online process control technology and know-how for the reliable high-volume production of Compacted Graphite Iron (CGI). The material is stronger than traditional iron, which enables downsizing, increased thermal and mechanical loading, and increased engine performance. The technology is primarily used in diesel engines for larger passenger vehicles such as SUVs and pick-ups as well as commercial vehicles and offroad equipment.

Increased focus on higher energy efficiency and lighter diesel engines. Increasing average vehicle size. Higher penetration of the truck and commercial vehicle segments.

Automotive demand, and more specifically demand for larger passenger vehicles such as SUVs and pick-up trucks with diesel engines. Regulation relating to fossil fuels and diesel in particular poses risks to the business model.

SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 2,7 2,9 4,2
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1,4 -0,9 -0,7
Sales 95 114 148
Sales growth (%) -18,1 19,6 29,8
EBITDA 25 42 61
EBITDA margin (%) 26,6 36,4 41,4
EBIT adj 21 38 57
EBIT adj margin (%) 22,1 32,9 38,7
Pretax profit 22 38 57
EPS rep 3,12 5,85 9,38
EPS growth (%) -54 87,4 60,2
EPS adj 3,04 5,85 9,38
DPS 4 5,85 9,38
EV/EBITDA (x) 33,6 26,7 18
EV/EBIT adj (x) 40,5 29,6 19,3
P/E (x) 39,8 27,5 17,2
P/E adj (x) 40,9 27,5 17,2
EV/sales (x) 8,9 9,7 7,4
FCF yield (%) 2,8 3 4,3
Dividend yield (%) 3,2 3,6 5,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,1 -0,8 -0,6
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Depreciation and amortisation -4 -4 -4
Of which leasing depreciation -1 -1 -1
EO items 1 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj 24 40 60
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 24,8 35,1 40,5
Sales 95 114 148
COGS -27 -29 -36
Gross profit 68 86 113
Other operating items -43 -44 -51
EBITDA 25 42 61
Depreciation on tangibles -1 -1 -1
Depreciation on intangibles -2 -2 -2
EBITA 22 38 57
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 22 38 57
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 1 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 22 38 57
Tax 0 4 9
Net profit 22 41 66
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 22 41 66
EPS 3,12 5,85 9,38
EPS Adj 3,04 5,85 9,38
Total extraordinary items after tax 0,6 0 0
Tax rate (%) -0,4 10,6 16,1
Gross margin (%) 71,6 75 76
EBITDA margin (%) 26,6 36,4 41,4
EBITA margin (%) 22,7 32,9 38,7
EBIT margin (%) 22,7 32,9 38,7
Pretax margin (%) 23,3 32,9 38,7
Net margin (%) 23,2 36,4 44,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) -18,1 19,6 29,8
EBITDA growth (%) -41,5 63,7 47,9
EBIT growth (%) -46 73,3 52,7
Net profit growth (%) -54 87,4 60,2
EPS growth (%) -54 87,4 60,2
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) 20,1 36 49,5
ROE Adj (%) 19,5 36 49,5
ROCE (%) 19 31,4 41,3
ROCE Adj(%) 18,5 31,4 41,3
ROIC (%) 26,6 48,8 67,3
ROIC Adj (%) 25,9 48,8 67,3
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 25 42 61
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 25,9 36,4 41,4
EBITA Adj 21 38 57
EBITA Adj margin (%) 22,1 32,9 38,7
EBIT Adj 21 38 57
EBIT Adj margin (%) 22,1 32,9 38,7
Pretax profit Adj 22 38 57
Net profit Adj 22 41 66
Net profit to shareholders Adj 22 41 66
Net Adj margin (%) 22,6 36,4 44,9
Leasing payments -1 -1 -1
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease liability amortisation -1 -1 -1
Other intangible assets 6 6 6
Right-of-use asset 4 5 5
Total other fixed assets 50 54 63
Leasing liability 4 4 4
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Net IB debt excl. leasing -32 -37 -43
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -135,7 -91,7 -71,3
Inventories 9 10 13
Receivables 29 35 45
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 26 31 37
Total assets 128 144 174
Shareholders equity 109 122 147
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 109 122 147
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 15 18 23
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 128 144 174
Net IB debt -28 -33 -39
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -28 -33 -39
Capital invested 81 89 108
Working capital 24 28 36
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 881 1142 1142
Net IB debt Adj -28 -33 -39
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 853 1109 1103
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 74,7 84,1 93,3
Capital invested turnover (%) 117,7 133,4 150
Capital employed turnover (%) 83,9 95,1 107,1
Inventories / sales (%) 9,3 8,7 7,9
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 14,6 14,2 13,6
Working capital / sales (%) 26 22,5 21,4
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) -25,6 -26,7 -26,3
Net debt / market cap (%) -2,7 -2,9 -3,4
Equity ratio (%) 85,2 84,9 84,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -25,6 -26,7 -26,3
Current ratio (%) 413,1 409,2 400,9
EBITDA / net interest (%) -4225 0 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -110,1 -78,5 -62,8
Interest cover (%) -3608,3 0 0
EBITDA 25 42 61
Net financial items 1 0 0
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 26 42 61
Change in WC 2 -4 -8
Operating cash flow 28 38 53
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -2 -2 -2
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -1 -2 -2
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 25 34 49
Dividend paid -25 -28 -41
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -1 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt -3 4 6
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 6 6 6
Tangible fixed assets 3 4 5
Other fixed assets 50 54 63
Fixed assets 63 68 78
SEKm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 2,7 2,9 4,2
Shares outstanding adj. 7 7 7
Fully diluted shares Adj 7 7 7
EPS 3,12 5,85 9,38
Dividend per share Adj 4 5,9 9,4
EPS Adj 3,04 5,85 9,38
BVPS 15,35 17,2 20,72
BVPS Adj 14,47 16,4 19,92
Net IB debt / share -3,9 -4,6 -5,4
Share price 146,12 161 161
Market cap. (m) 1036 1142 1142
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E 39,8 27,5 17,2
EV/sales 8,94 9,72 7,44
EV/EBITDA 33,6 26,7 18
EV/EBITA 39,4 29,6 19,3
EV/EBIT 39,4 29,6 19,3
Dividend yield (%) 3,2 3,6 5,8
FCF yield (%) 2,8 3 4,3
P/BVPS 8,09 9,36 7,77
P/BVPS Adj 8,58 9,82 8,08
P/E Adj 40,9 27,5 17,2
EV/EBITDA Adj 34,5 26,7 18
EV/EBITA Adj 40,5 29,6 19,3
EV/EBIT Adj 40,5 29,6 19,3
EV/cap. employed 7,5 8,8 7,3
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 2,9 3 2,9
Capex / depreciation 93,3 107 138,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 57,1 48,2 44,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 19,4 30,2 38,9
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 33,9 39,5 38,1
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 32,1 27 19,9

Equity research

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Media

SinterCast - Company presentation with CEO Steve Dawson
SinterCast - Interview with CEO Steve Dawson

Main shareholders - SinterCast

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Avanza Pension 13.4 % 13.4 % 31 Mar 2021
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 10.9 % 10.9 % 31 Mar 2021
Lars Ahlström 6.8 % 6.8 % 31 Mar 2021
VLTCM Ltd 4.1 % 4.1 % 31 Mar 2021
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management 3.7 % 3.7 % 31 Dec 2020
Ulf Stenbeck inkl. bolag 3.3 % 3.3 % 31 Mar 2021
Jan Olof Brandels 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 Mar 2021
eQ Asset Management Oy 1.2 % 1.2 % 31 Mar 2021
Torbjörn Gustafsson 1.0 % 1.0 % 31 Mar 2021
Franz Jörgen Holm 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Mar 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - SinterCast

Name Quantity Code Date
Jun Arimoto + 272 BUY 28 Dec 2020
Jun Arimoto + 24 BUY 23 Nov 2020
Steve Dawson - 1 917 SELL 30 Oct 2020
Steve Dawson + 1 917 BUY 30 Oct 2020
Jun Arimoto + 500 BUY 3 Sep 2020
Åsa kÄLLENIUS + 1 000 BUY 8 Jul 2020
Daphne Uhmeier + 108 BUY 20 May 2020
Daphne Uhmeier + 200 BUY 18 May 2020
Daphne Uhmeier + 200 BUY 22 Apr 2020
Daphne Uhmeier - 200 SELL 17 Apr 2020

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