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SinterCast

SinterCast

Process control solutions for compacted graphite iron

SinterCast is a leading supplier of online process control technology and know-how for the reliable high-volume production of Compacted Graphite Iron (CGI). The material is stronger than traditional iron, which enables downsizing, increased thermal and mechanical loading, and increased engine performance. The technology is primarily used in diesel engines for larger passenger vehicles such as SUVs and pick-ups as well as commercial vehicles and offroad equipment.

Increased focus on higher energy efficiency and lighter diesel engines. Increasing average vehicle size. Higher penetration of the truck and commercial vehicle segments.

Automotive demand, and more specifically demand for larger passenger vehicles such as SUVs and pick-up trucks with diesel engines. Regulation relating to fossil fuels and diesel in particular poses risks to the business model.

SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 117 133 141
Sales growth (%) 32,8 13,8 6,3
EBITDA 43 56 61
EBITDA margin (%) 37,2 42,6 43,3
EBIT adj 45 53 57
EBIT adj margin (%) 38,6 39,9 40,7
Pretax profit 40 53 57
EPS rep 6,8 8,02 8,74
EPS growth (%) 47,4 18 8,9
EPS adj 7,49 8,02 8,74
DPS 6,75 8,02 8,74
EV/EBITDA (x) 31,2 13,8 12,8
EV/EBIT adj (x) 30 14,7 13,6
P/E (x) 28,7 14,3 13,1
P/E adj (x) 26 14,3 13,1
EV/sales (x) 11,6 5,9 5,5
FCF yield (%) 2,6 6,4 7,1
Dividend yield (%) 3,5 7 7,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,7 -0,6 -0,5
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 117 133 141
COGS -28 -26 -28
Gross profit 89 107 113
Other operating items -46 -50 -52
EBITDA 43 56 61
Depreciation on tangibles -1 -1 -1
Depreciation on intangibles -2 -2 -2
EBITA 40 53 57
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 40 53 57
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 40 53 57
Tax 8 4 5
Net profit 48 57 62
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 48 57 62
EPS 6,8 8,02 8,74
EPS Adj 7,49 8,02 8,74
Total extraordinary items after tax -4,9 0 0
Tax rate (%) 20,8 7,6 7,8
Gross margin (%) 76,4 80,3 80,2
EBITDA margin (%) 37,2 42,6 43,3
EBITA margin (%) 34,4 39,9 40,7
EBIT margin (%) 34,4 39,9 40,7
Pretax margin (%) 34,2 39,9 40,7
Net margin (%) 41,4 42,9 43,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) 32,8 13,8 6,3
EBITDA growth (%) 37 30,4 8,2
EBIT growth (%) 36,4 31,8 8,6
Net profit growth (%) 47,4 18 8,9
EPS growth (%) 47,4 18 8,9
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 45,7 48,9 50,3
ROE Adj (%) 50,4 48,9 50,3
ROCE (%) 37,5 44,4 45,6
ROCE Adj(%) 42,1 44,4 45,6
ROIC (%) 65,8 67,4 68,6
ROIC Adj (%) 73,9 67,4 68,6
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 48 56 61
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 41,4 42,6 43,3
EBITA Adj 45 53 57
EBITA Adj margin (%) 38,6 39,9 40,7
EBIT Adj 45 53 57
EBIT Adj margin (%) 38,6 39,9 40,7
Pretax profit Adj 45 53 57
Net profit Adj 53 57 62
Net profit to shareholders Adj 53 57 62
Net Adj margin (%) 45,6 42,9 43,9
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Inventories 8 10 10
Receivables 31 35 37
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 33 36 35
Total assets 128 138 144
Shareholders equity 112 121 126
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 112 121 126
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 13 15 16
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 128 138 144
Net IB debt -31 -33 -33
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -31 -33 -33
Capital invested 81 88 93
Working capital 26 29 31
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 1383 812 812
Net IB debt Adj -31 -33 -33
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1352 779 779
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 98 99,7 99,7
Capital invested turnover (%) 158,3 157,1 156,2
Capital employed turnover (%) 109 111,4 111,8
Inventories / sales (%) 6,4 6,8 7
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 10,3 10,6 10,9
Working capital / sales (%) 20 20,8 21,5
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -27,3 -27,4 -26,1
Net debt / market cap (%) -3,3 -4,1 -4
Equity ratio (%) 87,5 87,2 87,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -27,3 -27,4 -26,1
Current ratio (%) 512,9 504,7 491,5
EBITDA / net interest (%) 21650 0 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -70,4 -58,6 -53,8
Interest cover (%) 20050 N/A N/A
EBITDA 43 56 61
Net financial items 0 0 0
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 43 56 61
Change in WC -5 -4 -2
Operating cash flow 38 53 59
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -1 -1 -1
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -1 -1 -1
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 37 52 58
Dividend paid -35 -48 -57
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -3 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt -3 3 0
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 7 6 4
Tangible fixed assets 2 2 1
Other fixed assets 45 49 53
Fixed assets 56 59 62
SEKm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 7 7 7
Fully diluted shares Adj 7 7 7
EPS 6,8 8,02 8,74
Dividend per share Adj 6,8 8 8,7
EPS Adj 7,49 8,02 8,74
BVPS 15,75 17,02 17,74
BVPS Adj 14,81 16,24 17,11
Net IB debt / share -4,3 -4,7 -4,6
Share price 129,98 114,5 114,5
Market cap. (m) 922 812 812
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 28,7 14,3 13,1
EV/sales 11,61 5,87 5,53
EV/EBITDA 31,2 13,8 12,8
EV/EBITA 33,7 14,7 13,6
EV/EBIT 33,7 14,7 13,6
Dividend yield (%) 3,5 7 7,6
FCF yield (%) 2,6 6,4 7,1
P/BVPS 12,38 6,73 6,45
P/BVPS Adj 13,17 7,05 6,69
P/E Adj 26 14,3 13,1
EV/EBITDA Adj 28,1 13,8 12,8
EV/EBITA Adj 30 14,7 13,6
EV/EBIT Adj 30 14,7 13,6
EV/cap. employed 11,8 6,3 6,1
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 1 1 1
Capex / depreciation 50 47,4 51,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 31,6 33,4 42,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 9 14,4 19
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 25,1 35,4 43,2
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 37,9 52,8 62,1

Equity research

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Media

SinterCast - Interview with CEO Steve Dawson
SinterCast - Company presentation with CEO Steve Dawson

Main shareholders - SinterCast

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
VLTCM Ltd 12.1 % 12.1 % 15 Jun 2009
Avanza Pension 11.7 % 11.7 % 31 Dec 2019
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 10.0 % 10.0 % 25 Feb 2020
Lars Ahlström 6.8 % 6.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management 3.7 % 3.7 % 31 Dec 2019
Jan Olof Brandels 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 Dec 2019
Ulf Stenbeck 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Dec 2019
Stenbeck Invest AB 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 Dec 2019
Torbjörn Gustafsson 1.2 % 1.2 % 31 Dec 2019
Martin Karlberg 0.9 % 0.9 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - SinterCast

Name Quantity Code Date
Jun Arimoto + 113 BUY 18 Mar 2020
Daphne Uhmeier + 200 BUY 12 Mar 2020
Jan Åke Jonsson + 500 BUY 11 Mar 2020
Jan Åke Jonsson + 1 500 BUY 6 Mar 2020
Jan Åke Jonsson + 1 500 BUY 27 Feb 2020
Lars Hellberg + 100 BUY 25 Feb 2020
Daphne Uhmeier + 200 BUY 24 Feb 2020
Lars Hellberg + 100 BUY 1 Oct 2019
Jan Åke Jonsson + 2 000 BUY 16 Sep 2019
Lars Hellberg + 400 BUY 22 May 2019

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