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Tethys Oil

USDm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 157 149 139
Sales growth (%) 31,9 -5 -7,3
EBITDA 107 109 100
EBITDA margin (%) 67,8 72,8 72,4
EBIT adj 61 61 56
EBIT adj margin (%) 38,6 40,8 40,4
Pretax profit 62 63 58
EPS rep 1,73 1,74 1,63
EPS growth (%) 78,4 0,9 -6,5
EPS adj 1,73 1,74 1,63
DPS 0,63 0,89 0,52
EV/EBITDA (x) 1,6 1,7 1,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 2,9 3,1 2,6
P/E (x) 4,2 4,9 5,2
P/E adj (x) 4,2 4,9 5,2
EV/sales (x) 1,1 1,3 1,1
FCF yield (%) 16 19,8 20,6
Dividend yield (%) 8,8 10,4 6,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,7 -0,9 -1,5
USDm 2018 2019e 2020e
Sales 157 149 139
COGS -52 -40 -38
Gross profit 106 109 101
Other operating items 1 0 0
EBITDA 107 109 100
Depreciation on tangibles -46 -48 -44
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 61 61 56
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 61 61 56
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 1 2 3
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 62 63 58
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit 62 63 58
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 62 63 58
EPS 1,73 1,74 1,63
EPS Adj 1,73 1,74 1,63
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 67,2 73 72,6
EBITDA margin (%) 67,8 72,8 72,4
EBITA margin (%) 38,6 40,8 40,4
EBIT margin (%) 38,6 40,8 40,4
Pretax margin (%) 39,4 41,9 42,2
Net margin (%) 39,4 41,9 42,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2018 2019 2020
Sales growth (%) 31,9 -5 -7,3
EBITDA growth (%) 36,8 2 -7,8
EBIT growth (%) 58,1 0,5 -8,3
Net profit growth (%) 87,3 0,9 -6,5
EPS growth (%) 78,4 0,9 -6,5
Profitability 2018 2019 2020
ROE (%) 25 22,1 18,4
ROE Adj (%) 25 22,1 18,4
ROCE (%) 34,4 32 30,1
ROCE Adj(%) 34,4 32 30,1
ROIC (%) 29 27,9 25,7
ROIC Adj (%) 29 27,9 25,7
Adj earnings numbers 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Adj 107 109 100
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 67,8 72,8 72,4
EBITA Adj 61 61 56
EBITA Adj margin (%) 38,6 40,8 40,4
EBIT Adj 61 61 56
EBIT Adj margin (%) 38,6 40,8 40,4
Pretax profit Adj 62 63 58
Net profit Adj 62 63 58
Net profit to shareholders Adj 62 63 58
Net Adj margin (%) 39,4 41,9 42,2
USDm 2018 2019e 2020e
EBITDA 107 109 100
Net financial items 1 2 3
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 1 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 109 110 103
Change in WC -5 0 0
Operating cash flow 96 111 103
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -56 -50 -40
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 1 0 0
Free cash flow 41 61 63
Dividend paid -23 -32 -19
Share issues and buybacks 3 0 0
Other non cash items 10 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 31 28 44
Balance Sheet (USDm) 2018 2019 2020
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 200 202 198
Other fixed assets 0 0 -1
Fixed assets 200 202 197
Inventories 18 18 18
Receivables 0 0 0
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 73 102 146
Total assets 291 322 362
Shareholders equity 268 298 338
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 268 298 338
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 9 9 9
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 1 1 1
Other current liabilities 14 14 14
Total liabilities and equity 239 245 291
Net IB debt -73 -102 -146
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -73 -102 -146
Capital invested 217 220 215
Working capital 17 17 17
EV breakdown 2018 2019 2020
Market cap. diluted (m) 246 292 292
Net IB debt Adj -73 -102 -146
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 173 190 146
Capital efficiency (%) 2018 2019 2020
Total assets turnover (%) 58,7 48,7 40,5
Capital invested turnover (%) 75,1 68,4 63,7
Capital employed turnover (%) 82,6 76,4 71,2
Inventories / sales (%) 9,9 12,2 13,1
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0,6 0,7 0,7
Working capital / sales (%) 9,3 11,5 12,4
Financial risk and debt service 2018 2019 2020
Net debt / equity (%) -27,3 -34 -43,1
Net debt / market cap (%) -22,2 -34,8 -49,9
Equity ratio (%) 91,8 92,6 93,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -27,3 -34 -43,1
Current ratio (%) 612,8 805,4 1103,5
EBITDA / net interest (%) -8200 -6813,5 -3942,4
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -68,6 -93,4 -145,2
Interest cover (%) 1871,4 N/A N/A
USDm 2018 2019e 2020e
Shares outstanding adj. 34 34 34
Fully diluted shares Adj 34 34 34
EPS 1,73 1,74 1,63
Dividend per share Adj 0,6 0,9 0,5
EPS Adj 1,73 1,74 1,63
BVPS 7,84 8,73 9,9
BVPS Adj 7,84 8,73 9,9
Net IB debt / share -2,1 -3 -4,3
Share price 9,65 8,54 8,54
Market cap. (m) 330 292 292
Valuation 2018 2019 2020
P/E 4,2 4,9 5,2
EV/sales 1,1 1,27 1,05
EV/EBITDA 1,6 1,7 1,5
EV/EBITA 2,9 3,1 2,6
EV/EBIT 2,9 3,1 2,6
Dividend yield (%) 8,8 10,4 6,1
FCF yield (%) 16 19,8 20,6
P/BVPS 0,92 0,98 0,86
P/BVPS Adj 0,92 0,98 0,86
P/E Adj 4,2 4,9 5,2
EV/EBITDA Adj 1,6 1,7 1,5
EV/EBITA Adj 2,9 3,1 2,6
EV/EBIT Adj 2,9 3,1 2,6
EV/cap. employed 0,9 1 0,8
Investment ratios 2018 2019 2020
Capex / sales 35,5 33,5 28,9
Capex / depreciation 121,8 104,7 90,2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 27,9 24,7 20,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 22,9 23,6 22,4