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Tethys Oil

Tethys Oil

Oil and natural gas

Tethys Oil is an independent E&P company with its core operation in Oman. Tethys is the partner on Blocks 3&4, which produces ~13,000 boe/d net to Tethys before government take. It also has some onshore production in Lithuania.

Continued production increase from blocks 3&4 in Oman is the main opportunity for Tethys Oil, where positive reserve revisions will be an important factor for sustainability. Further, Tethys Oil has balance sheet flexibility to engage in M&A activity or distribute to shareholders.

The main risks to the Tethys Oil investment case is oil price, USDSEK, continued production growth and reserve replacement. Tethys has a very strong production track record from Blocks 3&4 in Oman, a halt in production growth will be negative for the company. Also, being a “one asset play” is not favourable.

USDm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 151 152 140
Sales growth (%) -4,1 0,5 -7,8
EBITDA 85 90 80
EBITDA margin (%) 56,3 59,4 57
EBIT adj 37 41 42
EBIT adj margin (%) 24,7 27,3 30,2
Pretax profit 38 43 44
EPS rep 1,05 1,18 1,21
EPS growth (%) -39,4 12,8 2,1
EPS adj 1,05 1,18 1,21
DPS 0,79 0,81 0,89
EV/EBITDA (x) 2,8 1,8 2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 6,3 4 3,8
P/E (x) 8,7 5,9 5,7
P/E adj (x) 8,7 5,9 5,7
EV/sales (x) 1,6 1,1 1,2
FCF yield (%) 7,4 9,6 14,9
Dividend yield (%) 8,7 11,6 12,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,9 -0,8 -1
USDm 2019 2020e 2021e
Sales 151 152 140
COGS -59 -62 -60
Gross profit 92 90 80
Other operating items -8 0 0
EBITDA 85 90 80
Depreciation on tangibles -48 -49 -37
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 37 41 42
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 37 41 42
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 1 1 2
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 38 43 44
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit 38 43 44
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 38 43 44
EPS 1,05 1,18 1,21
EPS Adj 1,05 1,18 1,21
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 61,2 59,4 57
EBITDA margin (%) 56,3 59,4 57
EBITA margin (%) 24,7 27,3 30,2
EBIT margin (%) 24,7 27,3 30,2
Pretax margin (%) 25,2 28,3 31,3
Net margin (%) 25,2 28,3 31,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2019 2020 2021
Sales growth (%) -4,1 0,5 -7,8
EBITDA growth (%) -20,4 6,2 -11,6
EBIT growth (%) -38,7 11,4 2
Net profit growth (%) -38,7 12,8 2,1
EPS growth (%) -39,4 12,8 2,1
Profitability 2019 2020 2021
ROE (%) 14 15,1 14,8
ROE Adj (%) 14 15,1 14,8
ROCE (%) 14,5 15,1 14,8
ROCE Adj(%) 14,5 15,1 14,8
ROIC (%) 17,9 18,8 18,1
ROIC Adj (%) 17,9 18,8 18,1
Adj earnings numbers 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Adj 85 90 80
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 56,3 59,4 57
EBITA Adj 37 41 42
EBITA Adj margin (%) 24,7 27,3 30,2
EBIT Adj 37 41 42
EBIT Adj margin (%) 24,7 27,3 30,2
Pretax profit Adj 38 43 44
Net profit Adj 38 43 44
Net profit to shareholders Adj 38 43 44
Net Adj margin (%) 25,2 28,3 31,3
USDm 2019 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 85 90 80
Net financial items 1 1 2
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 1 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 86 92 81
Change in WC 4 0 0
Operating cash flow 89 92 81
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -65 -59 -44
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 1 -9 0
Free cash flow 24 24 37
Dividend paid -29 -29 -32
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 6 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 3 -5 5
Balance Sheet (USDm) 2019 2020 2021
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 212 231 237
Other fixed assets 1 1 1
Fixed assets 212 231 238
Inventories 12 12 12
Receivables 0 0 0
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 76 70 76
Total assets 300 314 325
Shareholders equity 276 290 302
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 276 290 302
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 11 11 11
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 13 13 13
Total liabilities and equity 245 291 300
Net IB debt -76 -71 -76
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -76 -71 -76
Capital invested 211 230 236
Working capital -1 -1 -1
EV breakdown 2019 2020 2021
Market cap. diluted (m) 311 238 238
Net IB debt Adj -76 -71 -76
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 235 167 162
Capital efficiency (%) 2019 2020 2021
Total assets turnover (%) 51 49,4 43,8
Capital invested turnover (%) 72,8 68,8 60
Capital employed turnover (%) 55,5 53,6 47,3
Inventories / sales (%) 10,1 8,1 8,8
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0,3 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) 0,9 -0,4 -0,4
Financial risk and debt service 2019 2020 2021
Net debt / equity (%) -27,6 -24,5 -25,3
Net debt / market cap (%) -27,7 -29,9 -32
Equity ratio (%) 92 92,4 92,7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -27,6 -24,5 -25,3
Current ratio (%) 681,4 641,1 681
EBITDA / net interest (%) -10612,5 -6294,7 -5215,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -89,8 -78,8 -95,6
Interest cover (%) 2633,3 N/A N/A
USDm 2019 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 34 34 34
Fully diluted shares Adj 34 34 34
EPS 1,05 1,18 1,21
Dividend per share Adj 0,8 0,8 0,9
EPS Adj 1,05 1,18 1,21
BVPS 8,05 8,44 8,78
BVPS Adj 8,05 8,44 8,78
Net IB debt / share -2,2 -2,1 -2,2
Share price 8 6,92 6,92
Market cap. (m) 275 238 238
Valuation 2019 2020 2021
P/E 8,7 5,9 5,7
EV/sales 1,56 1,1 1,16
EV/EBITDA 2,8 1,8 2
EV/EBITA 6,3 4 3,8
EV/EBIT 6,3 4 3,8
Dividend yield (%) 8,7 11,6 12,8
FCF yield (%) 7,4 9,6 14,9
P/BVPS 1,13 0,82 0,79
P/BVPS Adj 1,13 0,82 0,79
P/E Adj 8,7 5,9 5,7
EV/EBITDA Adj 2,8 1,8 2
EV/EBITA Adj 6,3 4 3,8
EV/EBIT Adj 6,3 4 3,8
EV/cap. employed 0,8 0,6 0,5
Investment ratios 2019 2020 2021
Capex / sales 43,1 38,6 31,4
Capex / depreciation 136,5 120,1 117,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 30,8 25,4 18,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 22,5 21,1 15,8

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Media

Tethys Oil - Interview with CEO Magnus Nordin
Tethys Oil - Company presentation with CEO Magnus Nordin

Main shareholders - Tethys Oil

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Lansdowne Partners 10.0 % 10.0 % 6 Nov 2019
Tethys Oil AB 5.9 % 5.9 % 25 Feb 2020
Magnus Nordin 4.3 % 4.3 % 31 Jan 2020
JP Morgan Asset Management 3.2 % 3.2 % 31 Jan 2020
Liontrust 2.4 % 2.4 % 31 Jan 2020
Jan Risberg 2.0 % 2.0 % 9 May 2019
Avanza Pension 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Jan 2020
Carl Erik Norman 1.7 % 1.7 % 31 Jan 2020
Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 Oct 2019
Schroders 1.4 % 1.4 % 31 Dec 2019
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Tethys Oil

Name Quantity Code Date
Fredrik Robelius + 110 BUY 13 Feb 2020
Fredrik Robelius + 1 500 BUY 12 Feb 2020
William Holland + 1 514 BUY 6 Nov 2019
Magnus Nordin - 70 000 Redemp 4 Oct 2019
Magnus Nordin + 83 300 Redemp 4 Oct 2019
Fredrik Robelius - 20 000 SELL 23 Aug 2019
Fredrik Robelius - 25 000 SELL 22 Aug 2019
Magnus Nordin + 60 000 BUY 15 Aug 2019
William Holland + 50 000 BUY 15 Aug 2019
Fredrik Robelius + 50 000 BUY 15 Aug 2019

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