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Tethys Oil

Tethys Oil

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Oil and natural gas

Tethys Oil is an independent E&P company with its core operation in Oman. Tethys is a 30% partner on Blocks 3 & 4. It is also engaged in exploration activity on other blocks in Oman.

Continued production increase from blocks 3&4 in Oman is the main opportunity for Tethys Oil, where positive reserve revisions will be an important factor for sustainability. Further, Tethys Oil has balance sheet flexibility to engage in M&A activity or distribute to shareholders.

The main risks to the Tethys Oil investment case is oil price, USDSEK, continued production growth and reserve replacement. Tethys has a very strong production track record from Blocks 3&4 in Oman, a halt in production growth will be negative for the company. Also, being a “one asset play” is not favourable.

Financials

USDm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 5,3 15,5 14,2
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1,1 -1 -0,8
Sales 101 116 147
Sales growth (%) -33 14,6 27,2
EBITDA 50 64 93
EBITDA margin (%) 49,8 55,4 63
EBIT adj 6 24 53
EBIT adj margin (%) 5,7 20,5 35,8
Pretax profit 3 25 54
EPS rep 0,1 0,75 1,65
EPS growth (%) -90,5 655,3 119,3
EPS adj 0,1 0,75 1,65
DPS 0,53 0,47 0,72
EV/EBITDA (x) 2,7 2,1 1,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) 23,5 5,6 2,4
P/E (x) 58,2 8,1 3,7
P/E adj (x) 58,2 8,1 3,7
EV/sales (x) 1,4 1,1 0,9
FCF yield (%) 5,3 15,5 14,2
Dividend yield (%) 9,2 7,8 11,9
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,1 -1 -0,8
USDm 2020 2021e 2022e
Depreciation and amortisation -45 -40 -40
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
Sales 101 116 147
COGS -51 -52 -54
Gross profit 50 64 93
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 50 64 93
Depreciation on tangibles -45 -37 -38
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 6 24 53
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 6 24 53
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -3 1 1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 3 25 54
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit 3 25 54
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 3 25 54
EPS 0,1 0,75 1,65
EPS Adj 0,1 0,75 1,65
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 49,8 55,4 63
EBITDA margin (%) 49,8 55,4 63
EBITA margin (%) 5,7 20,5 35,8
EBIT margin (%) 5,7 20,5 35,8
Pretax margin (%) 3,3 21,3 36,7
Net margin (%) 3,3 21,3 36,7
Growth rates Y/Y 2020 2021 2022
Sales growth (%) -33 14,6 27,2
EBITDA growth (%) -40,8 27,6 44,6
EBIT growth (%) -84,4 308,8 122,1
Net profit growth (%) -91,3 646,8 119,3
EPS growth (%) -90,5 655,3 119,3
Profitability 2020 2021 2022
ROE (%) 1,2 9,4 19,3
ROE Adj (%) 1,2 9,4 19,3
ROCE (%) 4 9,8 19,3
ROCE Adj(%) 4 9,8 19,3
ROIC (%) 2,7 11,1 23,3
ROIC Adj (%) 2,7 11,1 23,3
Adj earnings numbers 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA Adj 50 64 93
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 49,8 55,4 63
EBITA Adj 6 24 53
EBITA Adj margin (%) 5,7 20,5 35,8
EBIT Adj 6 24 53
EBIT Adj margin (%) 5,7 20,5 35,8
Pretax profit Adj 3 25 54
Net profit Adj 3 25 54
Net profit to shareholders Adj 3 25 54
Net Adj margin (%) 3,3 21,3 36,7
EBITDA lease Adj 50 64 93
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 49,8 55,4 63
Leasing payments 0 0 0
USDm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 0 1 1
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 13 14 14
Net IB debt excl. leasing -55 -66 -70
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -110,1 -102,4 -75,8
EBITDA 50 64 93
Net financial items -3 1 1
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 48 65 94
Change in WC 8 1 0
Operating cash flow 56 67 94
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -45 -36 -66
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 10 31 28
Dividend paid -18 -16 -24
Share issues and buybacks -9 -1 0
Other non cash items -3 -1 0
Decrease in net IB debt -21 8 -9
Balance Sheet (USDm) 2020 2021 2022
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 215 211 236
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 216 211 237
Inventories 9 7 7
Receivables 0 0 0
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 55 65 69
Total assets 280 284 314
Shareholders equity 258 265 295
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 258 265 295
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 13 13 13
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 10 5 5
Total liabilities and equity 280 284 314
Net IB debt -55 -66 -70
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -55 -66 -70
Capital invested 215 213 239
Working capital -1 2 2
EV breakdown 2020 2021 2022
Market cap. diluted (m) 192 198 198
Net IB debt Adj -55 -66 -70
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 137 132 128
Capital efficiency (%) 2020 2021 2022
Total assets turnover (%) 34,8 41,1 49,3
Capital invested turnover (%) 47,5 55,6 56,9
Capital employed turnover (%) 37,8 45,8 47,7
Inventories / sales (%) 10,7 7,6 6,7
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) -0,5 0,7 1,4
Financial risk and debt service 2020 2021 2022
Net debt / equity (%) -21,5 -24,8 -23,8
Net debt / market cap (%) -31,7 -33,2 -35,5
Equity ratio (%) 91,9 93,4 94
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -21,5 -24,8 -23,8
Current ratio (%) 660,2 1363,3 1450,5
EBITDA / net interest (%) 2012 -6866,8 -6658,5
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -110,1 -102,4 -75,8
Interest cover (%) 145,2 2340,4 0
USDm 2020 2021e 2022e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 5,3 15,5 14,2
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 33 33 33
EPS 0,1 0,75 1,65
Dividend per share Adj 0,5 0,5 0,7
EPS Adj 0,1 0,75 1,65
BVPS 7,8 8,12 9,06
BVPS Adj 7,8 8,12 9,06
Net IB debt / share -1,7 -2 -2,2
Share price 5,29 6,08 6,08
Market cap. (m) 175 198 198
Valuation 2020 2021 2022
P/E 58,2 8,1 3,7
EV/sales 1,35 1,14 0,87
EV/EBITDA 2,7 2,1 1,4
EV/EBITA 23,5 5,6 2,4
EV/EBIT 23,5 5,6 2,4
Dividend yield (%) 9,2 7,8 11,9
FCF yield (%) 5,3 15,5 14,2
P/BVPS 0,74 0,75 0,67
P/BVPS Adj 0,74 0,75 0,67
P/E Adj 58,2 8,1 3,7
EV/EBITDA Adj 2,7 2,1 1,4
EV/EBITA Adj 23,5 5,6 2,4
EV/EBIT Adj 23,5 5,6 2,4
EV/cap. employed 0,5 0,5 0,4
Investment ratios 2020 2021 2022
Capex / sales 44,9 30,8 44,8
Capex / depreciation 102 88,1 164,5
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 21,1 16,9 27,9
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 20,7 19,2 17

Equity research

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Media

Tethys Oil - Company presentation with CFO Petter Hjertstedt
Tethys Oil - Company presentation with CEO Magnus Nordin

Main shareholders - Tethys Oil

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Lansdowne Partners 11.0 % 11.0 % 31 Aug 2021
Magnus Nordin 4.7 % 4.7 % 31 Aug 2021
Avanza Pension 4.4 % 4.4 % 31 Aug 2021
Adage Capital Management 3.2 % 3.2 % 10 May 2021
Liontrust 2.7 % 2.7 % 31 Aug 2021
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.4 % 2.4 % 31 Aug 2021
Carl Erik Norman 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Aug 2021
Jan Risberg 1.7 % 1.7 % 7 May 2020
Bengt Karlsson 1.5 % 1.5 % 31 Aug 2021
Tethys Oil AB 1.4 % 1.4 % 23 Sep 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Tethys Oil

Name Quantity Code Date
Fredrik Robelius + 1 035 BUY 23 Aug 2021
Fredrik Robelius + 50 000 BUY 14 Jun 2021
Magnus, Petter, Kelsey Nordin, Hjertstedt, Emms - 200 000 SELL 11 Jun 2021
Petter Hjertstedt + 50 000 ALTM 11 Jun 2021
Magnus Nordin - 830 000 SELL 7 Jun 2021
Kelsey, Magnus, Petter Emms, Nordin, Hjertstedt + 200 000 SUBS 28 May 2021
Fredrik Robelius + 36 BUY 16 Nov 2020
Petter Hjertstedt + 1 000 BUY 21 Sep 2020
Fredrik Robelius + 2 000 BUY 17 Sep 2020
Klas Brand + 2 000 BUY 13 Aug 2020

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